The final week of the regular season is one that you’d generally swerve, unless you knew what personnel will be used and for what length of time.

It is hard to be dogmatic when there are so many imponderables over team selection, motivation and mindset.

For instance, Green Bay and Detroit have already reached the playoffs. The Packers have home-field advantage locked up, while the Lions – who have lost their last 20 games at Lambeau Field – are trying to secure the No.5 seed and a clash at either the New York Giants or Dallas. Should they lose and Atlanta beat Tampa Bay, the Lions will head to either New Orleans or San Francisco next week.

Will the Packers rest starters and play back-ups for the duration? Will Detroit do the same, given that Atlanta are almost certain to beat the Buccaneers? We probably won’t find out until minutes before kick-off on Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis and Jacksonville have long been eliminated from the playoff race but their AFC South clash is all about their draft position. Should Indy lose, they will lock up the first selection – likely to be Stanford’s Andrew Luck – who is coveted by many teams and hailed as the next great quarterback.

Securing the No.1 pick puts the team in a better position to win the Super Bowl going forward, as they could trade out and pick up several first-round picks from a willing suitor for Luck’s services.

Will the Colts roll over? Or will Jacksonville be motivated enough to beat them, knowing that it is probably not in their best interests to allow the Colts to become stronger, since they face them twice each season?

You need more than a psychology degree to work out who is going to be trying and who has packed it in for the season. A lot of it involves guesswork.

This is the time of year for reflection. Teams will be looking to the future and breaking links with the past.

San Diego could decide that Norv Turner has had his day with the Chargers and it will be time to move on. The same applies to Tampa, who could jettison Raheem Morris. Mike Shanahan must be sweating in Washington, as successive 6-10 seasons (should they upset Philadelphia this weekend) was probably not what owner Dan Snyder was anticipating. Steve Spagnolo is also certainly coaching his last game with the Rams.

We also say farewell to some great players, notably Miami linebacker Jason Taylor, who will bow out after 15 years against the New York Jets. Taylor leads all currently active NFL players in sacks with a career mark of 139.5.

The 37-year-old has spent 13 of his 15 seasons with the Dolphins, with his other two years coming in Washington in 2008 and the Jets in 2010.

He has been a poster-boy for the Dolphins in the years since Dan Marino retired in 2000 and this week’s musical interlude is dedicated to number 99…

Sobbing as we go, and with caution advised, it is on to the picks.

Philadelphia have picked up their game over the few weeks, although it was too little, too late to make the playoffs. They host a Washington Redskins team out to avoid giving two-time Super Bowl winner Shanahan a 5-11 record, which would be his worst in 17 years as a head coach.

The Redskins are in desperate need of a quarterback to take them to the next level and while their defence has been wearing down a little as the season has worn on, they are still a good group and are well coached.

The Redskins have been playing hard for Shanahan and they rarely get blown away by the Eagles, who are heavy favourites following their easy win in Dallas last week.

Most of the money will be going on Philadelphia. Statistically, the Eagles have a large edge in both the running and passing game. But the Redskins might just want this a little more at a venue where they have won on four of the last six visits.

San Francisco 49ers still have plenty to play for, namely the No.2 playoff seed in the NFC and a coveted first-round bye. They travel to St Louis to face the hapless Rams, who are out to avoid a 2-14 season.

The Niners are heavy favourites against a team that has managed just 53 points in the last six games. The Rams are down to their third-string quarterback Kellen Clemens, who completed just nine of 24 passes for 91 yards in a 27-0 loss at Pittsburgh last weekend.

Should St Louis lose and Indianapolis win at Jacksonville, the Rams will own the number one pick in the draft, not that this will be on the mind of departing Spagnolo.

San Francisco are unlikely to leave anything to chance and even with a large sprinkling of back-ups in the line-up, they should roll to an easy win.

Chicago have struggled badly since quarterback Jay Cutler went down with a broken thumb, but they can snap a six-game losing streak when they travel to Minnesota.

Veteran Josh McCown, signed a couple of weeks ago to replace the ineffective Caleb Hanie, didn’t do badly in his first game at quarterback against Green Bay, leading the Bears to 21 points.

Minnesota have the worst pass defence in the NFL, so even by his modest standards, McCown should be able to move the ball against the Vikings.

As Chicago knows only too well, one serious injury to a key player can doom a season. Minnesota lost star running back Adrian Peterson to a severe knee injury last week and while
Toby Gerhart is serviceable, the Vikings may become one-dimensional, which isn’t good news against the Bears’ 12th-ranked pass defence.

Suggestions:
Washington +9.5
San Francisco -10.5
Chicago +1

Follow Simon Milham on Twitter: @simonmilham



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