There is an old NFL adage that goes: ‘Offense sells tickets, kicking wins games, but defence wins championships’.
The stats back this up. Of the 45 teams to win Super Bowl titles, 38 boasted a defence ranked in the top 10.
So you may be wondering why the three offensive juggernauts Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints are at the top of the betting markets, given that the Saints ranked 24th among the 32 NFL teams in total defence (based on yards allowed) during the regular season. The Patriots were 31st and the Packers were dead last.
But defence isn’t just about yards conceded – it has always been about the final score. To that end, we are best to judge teams on the more simplistic category of ‘scoring defence’ (points conceded).
The Saints ranked 13th in the league, the Patriots were 15th and the Packers were 19th. The Packers and Patriots also had two of the league’s top turnover margins, plus-24 for Green Bay and plus-17 for New England.
It doesn’t hurt that the trio currently have the three best and healthy (we’re thinking of you Peyton Manning) quarterbacks in the NFL right now in Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers (and before you get on our case, we’re convinced that San Diego’s Philip Rivers was carrying an undisclosed injury, too).
The Saints are the only one of that trio who will play on this ‘Wildcard’ weekend. The Packers and Patriots are the respective No.1 seeds in their conferences and they receive a bye until next weekend – and it is probably worth remembering that only two teams who earned the No.1 seeding in their conference went on to win the Super Bowl in the last decade.
Three teams who qualified as Wildcards (Pittsburgh, New York Giants and Green Bay) have won the Vince Lombardi Trophy in the last six years. The Steelers and Giants are in via that route again.
Let’s glance at the weekend’s wildcard games in chronological order. But before we do, breathe deeply and take a walk on the wild side with Lou Reed…
We are down to 12 teams and it is all-or-nothing time for eight of them this weekend. Three of the last four Super Bowl winners – the Giants, Steelers and Saints – are playing in the wildcard round and half of the playoff teams have combined to win nine of the last 11 Super Bowls.
Cincinnati have had 21 years without a playoff win, while hosts Houston are playing in their first post-season game.
Houston could have been the best all-round team entering the playoffs as they had everything; adding a much stronger defence than they possessed in previous years to a star-studded attack, boasting a prolific passer and an elite running game.
The problem for Houston is that they have lost quarterback Matt Schaub and they are stuck with a wounded third-string rookie Taylor ‘T.J.’ Yates – who has a shoulder injury – or a veteran gunslinger (for ‘gunslinger’ read: Interception Machine) Jake Delhomme.
Houston have done brilliantly to get into the playoffs, despite losing their last three games. They have suffered plenty of major injuries to key players, such as back-up quarterback Matt Leinart, linebacker Mario Williams, receiver Andre Johnson (back last week) and a few more besides. The AFC South champions’ three-game losing streak also coincided with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips having surgery.
Cincinnati have not been blown away by anyone outside of Pittsburgh. But they have beaten only one opponent in the seven they have faced who possessed a winning record.
The home crowd will crank up the volume, rookie passer Andy Dalton and the Bengals will find it tough to move the ball through the air on the Texans’ defence.
And if Cincinnati give up great chunks of yardage on the ground as they did last week against Baltimore, then Arian Foster will ensure that the home side progress to the divisional round.
Detroit’s biggest issue has been immaturity, which has led to them making a lot of silly mistakes and costly penalties.
Those on the Lions’ squad have had little or no playoff experience – this is the team’s first playoff game for 12 years – and that is a concern as they travel to New Orleans as 10.5-point underdogs.
The Saints beat the Lions 31-17 in December in a game that was closer than the score reflected, with Detroit out-gaining New Orleans 466-438 yards. They also had 25 first downs to the Saints’ 21. Yet 11 penalties for 107 yards didn’t help their cause, and as is the case with New England and Green Bay, New Orleans may give up a ton of yards, but their defence stiffens when it matters (insert your own Sildenafil joke here).
Detroit were only one of three teams to hold New Orleans to below 40 points at home this season, where they went a perfect 8-0. They did so without key defenders.
And they have the capability of putting up yards and points. Matt Stafford threw for 520 yards and put up 41 points against one-loss Green Bay last week.
Layers anticipate a high-scoring affair and the 58.5 total points mark seems fair. Yet given the underrated defences, it may be too large a nut to cover. The Lions could keep this interesting and it might be a cagier game than many expect.
Atlanta are a dark horse for the title. They were on offer at 48.0 on Friday afternoon, and last year’s No.1 NFC seed will hope to get another crack at Green Bay, who knocked them off in the divisional round last year.
To earn that right, they must head to New York to take on the Giants, who have won just half of their home games this season. While they seem to be picking up momentum, having beaten the NY Jets and Dallas Cowboys with something to spare in the last two weeks, Big Blue are inconsistent. They went just 1-3 against teams with a winning record, they still have problems running the ball (ranking dead last in the NFL), and it is only the heroics of quarterback Eli Manning that has got them into the post-season, leading an offense that is No.8 in scoring.
You don’t win championships when conceding over 400 points in a season, however.
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has yet to win a playoff game (0-2) but while the Falcons may not have the same record as last season, they have been a much better team and they are stouter statistically in many areas than they were in 2010. They have also faced a tougher schedule than the Giants.
If the Falcons do get past New York – and there’s no reason to think they can’t, despite the arguments against a dome team playing outside on the road in January – they could be great value to upset the Packers next week at Lambeau Field, where they have a good record.
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Denver are more efficient when they do manage to hang on to the oblate spheroid, but turnovers have not helped, and they backed into the post-season losing their last three games.
Tim Tebow’s lack of accuracy in the passing game makes the Broncos largely one-dimensional, but Denver’s problems are more than just at quarterback. As we know, Tebow is a winner, always has been, always will be.
It is their woeful pass defence that has been the biggest headache.
Pittsburgh will have to do without running back Rashard Mendenhall for the rest of the year, safety Ryan Clark is also ruled out and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is hobbled by an ankle injury.
While the Steelers are fancied to win comfortably, another asterisk is that the Steelers have traditionally not fared well in the rarefied air of Colorado.
But even on one leg Big Ben and stand-in rusher Isaac Redman should be able to do plenty of damage against a limited Broncos team.
This game’s points total is set at 34.5 and that seems a shade low. Games between these two in Colorado have often been close, relatively high-scoring affairs – only twice in the last 10 meetings at Mile High have fewer than 38 points been scored.
Pittsburgh should progress – their top-ranked defence should have no problem coping with the trickery of the Broncos, who must do without fullback Spencer Larsen, an important cog in their running game, and guard Chris Kuper. And then the fun can really start.
Suggestions:
Houston -3
Detroit/New Orleans under 58.5 points
Atlanta +3
Pittsburgh/Denver over 34.5 points
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