The Wild Card games panned out largely as the layers feared they would, with all four favourites prevailing and covering their respective handicaps in the process. Our selections went 3-1 on the handicaps, 2-2 on the over-under points-totals.
This weekend’s ‘quarter-finals’, better known as the Divisional Round of the playoffs, sees the same AFC quartet that competed at the same stage last year. They are also the top four seeds in the conference. Three of the top four NFC seeds also make it, with No 5 seed Seattle having knocked out Washington last Sunday.
Here’s our take on Saturday’s two games:
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DENVER BRONCOS (Sky Sports HD, Saturday, 9.30pm)
BETDAQ handicap: Denver -9.5
Total Points: 45
Weather: 10/33f Mostly Cloudy.
Our take: The AFC No4 seed travels to the No1 seed as Ray Lewis (pictured) and the Baltimore Ravens’ defence takes on Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Manning may have to throw the ball more than normal for, despite a week’s rest, their offensive line is a little nicked up, with right guard Chris Kupar’s sore ankle still bothering him, right tackle Orlando Franklin’s shoulder injury a concern and left tackle Ryan Clady also in the treatment room last week with an undisclosed injury.
While the Broncos beat the Ravens 34-17 in Baltimore in Week 15, the Ravens are much healthier now, with Lewis and Terrell Suggs both returning to a defence that held the Indianapolis Colts to three field goals in a 24-9 Wild Card win last Sunday.
Lewis’s return from a triceps injury in what he insists will be his final season, was significant. He finished the game with 13 combined tackles, one tackle for loss and should have held on to an errant pass for an interception. The Ravens are 6-1 with him this season, 5-5 without him.
The minuses for the Ravens outweigh the plusses and the handicap reflects this.
Manning may not have managed to top 300 yards passing in his last three games against the Ravens, but he has beaten them nine straight times.
The Ravens have lost on three of their four trips to Mile High and while they have won four of their eight road games this season, none of those wins were against teams who possessed winning records: 9-6 at Kansas City; 25-15 at Cleveland; 13-10 at Pittsburgh, who were led by back-up Byron Leftwich; and 16-13 at San Diego. Three road wins by three points, with the other coming against a team with a rookie quarterback, hardly promotes their chances. Those wins also came against teams who had trouble scoring. All four ranked 20th or below in points scored and average passing yardage.
On Saturday, they take on a Denver team who are second in average points scored per game (30.1) and fifth in average passing yardage per game (283.4), with their only home loss coming against a fully-fit Houston team in Manning’s third regular-season game after a year on the sidelines with a neck injury.
Denver may have a little more trouble moving the ball with their offensive line injuries, however. Knowshon Moreno ran for 115 yards in their first meeting this season and he was a big reason why Denver were able to maintain a big time of possession advantage.
While the Broncos must be concerned with the way the Ravens got after Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck with their strong front seven, Manning is a master at drawing penalties at the line of scrimmage. He audibled with great effect in their last meeting, when not faced with master on-field tactician Lewis, but the Ravens are one of the most penalised teams in the NFL. Last week, with Lewis, they were flagged nine times and gave the Colts 70 additional unearned extra yards.
Ravens’ running back Ray Rice has also had his problems with ball control in the post season. He put the ball on the floor twice last week against the Colts and in 2010 also lost a fumble in the playoffs. With the temperature expected to be near freezing, holding on to the rock could be an issue.
Denver surprised heavy favourites Pittsburgh in the playoffs last season and that was with Tim Tebow. The Broncos are a much better team this season – they have scored 30 points in all but five games – and they now have an elite quarterback at the helm. The Ravens have gone 2-6 in their eight games when they have allowed 20 points or more but they do have a 3-4 record against teams with a winning record. That’s one more win against a quality opponent than Denver, who went 2-3 against similar opposition.
Denver’s passer rating differential – simply the difference between a team’s offensive passer rating and their defensive passer rating – is much better than Baltimore’s. Why is this so important? Because 44 of the last 72 teams to win the Super Bowl finished ranked in the top 3 in passer rating differential (Denver are currently third, with Baltimore 12th, the worst of the remaining playoff teams).
While the Ravens were splattered 43-13 at Houston in Week 7, they have done better on the road in the second half of the season, keeping things close against subsequent Wild Card losers Washington and Cincinnati.
Can Denver win by double digits? In theory, yes. But as pointed out last week, it is worth keeping an eye on the injury situation, as Washington backers found to their cost when quarterback Robert Griffin III played on a bum knee that eventually gave out on him.
Manning could find life significantly tougher if any of his front four are missing. We believe Denver will win, but the points are probably worth taking.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Sky Sports HD, Sunday, 1am)
BETDAQ handicap: San Francisco 49ers -3
Total Points: 45
Weather: 39/53f Partly Cloudy
Our take: This is a game of many storylines and the one game everyone should watch. The Packers would be playing this at home after a week’s rest, rather than hosting a Wild Card game last week, had Seattle not benefited from a blown call by replacement officials on a Hail Mary ‘touchdown’ catch in Week 3.
It is also a minefield for punters. As with many others, this game comes down to how well the man at the respective quarterback position plays.
Oddly, both Packers’ Aaron Rodgers (pictured) and 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick have waited their turn behind Alex Smith. California boy Rodgers dropped down the 2005 NFL draft board until the Green Bay Packers took him, hours after his beloved 49ers selected Smith with the No1 pick.
Kaepernick had to wait 25 games before becoming the 49ers’ starter when Smith sustained a concussion on November 11. Kaepernick happens to be a Wisconsin native who moved to California when he was four years’ old and grew up a Packers fan.
But which way will it go?
You could start by looking for historical trends. But this only underlines the difficulty facing punters.
San Francisco have lost just once at home this season. Green Bay have lost four road games.
San Francisco have faced four top-tier quarterbacks this season – Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. They prevailed in three of those games, all on the road – at the Packers, Saints and Patriots – and winning by seven points or more on each occasion. Their sole loss to an elite passer came in Week 6, when the New York Giants defeated them 26-3.
Yet Green Bay, who have faced a tougher schedule – facing nine teams with a winning record and winning four of those games, compared to San Francisco’s 4-3 mark against quality opponents – have a better offensive and defensive passer rating differential than the Niners, which is a key indicator of success, as we’ve explained above.
From San Francisco’s first Super Bowl win in 1981 (they are the only team to play in five Super Bowls and win all of them) the 49ers are 11-3 in the divisional round coming off a first-round bye.
In contrast, Green Bay are just 2-5 in the divisional round coming off a win in the Wild Card round.
However, the Packers have beaten San Francisco in 13 of their last 15 meetings dating back to 1996, including five of the last six meetings in San Francisco.
And had Terrell Owens not hauled in a miracle catch from Steve Young in the last seconds of their ’98 Wild Card clash with the Packers, Green Bay would be 5-0 against the Niners in playoff meetings.
The other great storyline waiting to happen is Billy Cundiff. His Baltimore Ravens career effectively ended when he hooked the ball left of the upright from 32 yards, with the Ravens trailing 23-20 to the New England Patriots with 15 seconds left in the AFC Championship game last season.
His confidence appeared shattered and he was released this season by the Washington Redskins after making seven of 12 field-goal attempts.
However, he was picked up by the Niners last week after Pro Bowler David Akers, who converted his first six field-goal attempts this season, converted only 23 of his final 36 attempts – six of his misses came in games the 49ers lost or tied. To be fair to Akers, he has been dealing with complications from a double sports hernia injury earlier in the season.
And if you don’t trust neither Cundiff or Akers, neither should you trust Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby, who made just 29 of 42 field goals entering Week 16 – including two in the Packers’ Week 15 victory over the Bears ?
This edition of the Musical Interlude goes to those beleaguered kickers: Pumped Up Kicks, by Tanner Patrick…
Neither team has been totally convincing in the past few weeks. The Niners’ vaunted defence fell apart in the second half at New England, allowing the Patriots to score 31 points. Then they were walloped 42-13 in Seattle, before closing the season with a 27-13 win over an Arizona team who were quarterbacked by something called Brian Hoyer. Giving up 73 points in six quarters to the Patriots and Seahawks is disarming.
Aldon Smith had 19.5 sacks and was looking like breaking Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record three weeks ago, but he failed to record a sack for the third straight game against Arizona. This could be put down to the loss of defensive lineman Justin Smith, who missed the final two regular-season games with a partially torn triceps tendon. He practiced last week despite a brace on his left elbow and is set to play against Green Bay. This should make the Niners better.
Rodgers felt Green Bay had to “get better” after an underwhelming offensive display in last week’s Wild Card victory over Minnesota, which followed a loss to the Vikings in the regular-season finale, where a win would have given them a bye week.
They dealt with Adrian Peterson well last week, but he was running out of the I-formation, and facing Frank Gore and Kaepernick provides a much different challenge.
Kaepernick has 136 completions and 10 touchdowns since taking over from Smith and adds a different dynamic to the Niners’ attack with his running ability. He has 415 yards on the ground and has run in five touchdowns.
Keep an eye out for Niners’ cornerback Perrish Cox, who was used a lot when defensing Green Bay receiver Randall Cobb in their first meeting but has not played much since. If the Packers can get a favourable match-up with him (we’re thinking Jordy Nelson) it might be problematic.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers need to bracket elite tight end Vernon Davis, who has been kept quiet in recent weeks. He looks ready to bust out for a big game.
There are several big questions, perhaps the biggest being this: is Kaepernick better than Smith, who has a better completion percentage from the same number of attempts (each have 218) and thrown for more touchdowns (13)?
Would Smith’s post-season experience not be more valuable to the Niners? Should they really be relying on his rookie replacement starting his first playoff game?
And in a stadium notorious for wind gusts and shifting conditions, one whose turf is also very worn, will Cundiff or Akers – depending on whom head coach Jim Harbaugh selects – or Crosby be able to hold their nerve?
Or will Rodgers, who still has a chip on his shoulder about not being drafted by the Niners, make San Francisco pay when it matters most?
The Packers have dealt with some good defences this season, beating Chicago (twice) and thrashing Houston on the road, and were robbed of victory in Seattle.
Good teams rise to the challenge in the post-season. Rodgers has been there, Kaepernick has not. The Packers’ have a quick-strike passing attack that can score in a hurry. If they get in front, they could force the rookie to beat them through the air and take away their running game.
It should be a close battle. Despite the Packers’ road woes, we’ll take experience over youth at the most vital position on the field – and hope the result doesn’t hinge on a kicker.
Suggestions:
Baltimore +9.5
Green Bay +3
Baltimore/Denver Over 45 total points
Green Bay/San Francisco Under 45 total points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 regular-season record:
Wild Card Weekend: 5-3
Week 17: 7-6
Week 16: 7-5
Week 15: 8-7
Week 14: 6-8-1
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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