Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (Sky Sports HD, 6pm)
Weather: 34/44f slight chance of Rain/Snow. Green Bay are considered 3-point BETDAQ handicap favourites to beat Chicago for the sixth consecutive time (and the ninth time in 10 meetings). The Packers head the NFC North division with an 8-5 record, while the Bears are a game back at 7-6 and the division title is on the line. A win for the Packers will secure the division and despite injuries of their own, the face a Chicago team who appear worse off, particularly at the skill positions.
Quarterback Jay Cutler expects to play, despite suffering a neck injury in a 21-14 defeat at Minnesota last Sunday. But linebacker Brian Urlacher is ruled out (the Bears are 7-16 without him) and cornerback Tim Jennings is still struggling with a shoulder injury. The latest injury saw reliable kicker Robbie Gould put on Injured Reserve for the remainder of the season, so veteran Olindo Mare has been signed on a one-year contract.
The Bears are reeling, having lost four of their last five games, but a loss here would not necessarily be fatal, as they face two road trips against teams with little to play for: Arizona and Detroit.
The Packers are starting to peak, as all good teams do in December. In particular, they appear to have found a running game that was missing in the first three-quarters of the season. This can only help the passing game which has struggled, as defences have regularly dropped seven men into coverage.
Injuries have also plagued the Packers, but they appear to be healing as well. Cornerback Chjarles Woodson is expected to play against Chicago, Woodson will likely return against Chicago, while linebacker Clay Matthews and receiver Jordy Nelson are also nearing fitness again. The Bears can only win if their defensive line dominates the Packers’ offensive line. If they can’t, the Packers will pick apart a defence that will probably play with their safeties too high with stretch runs, quick slant patterns and a long shot or two down field to Nelson or Randall Cobb.
If Matt Forte can get going on the ground – he has yet to have a really good game this season – and Brandon Marshall can get his usual 10 receptions for 100-plus yards and a touchdown, the Bears can spring a surprise. And perhaps save Lovie Smith’s job.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys (Sky Sports HD, 9.25pm)
Domed stadium, so weather is inconsequential. This should be about how well either Jonathan Dwyer or Isaac Redman run the ball against a Cowboys team who are still in the playoff hunt but with few bodies to stop the run. They caught a break in Cincinnati last week because the Bengals did not appear to understand the second-half gameplan which appeared scrawled with crayons by a five-year-old. Why else would you refuse to use BenJarvus Green-Ellis after he ran for 89 yards on just 12 carries? It wasn’t as if the Bengals were forced to play catch-up. If anything, the running game should have been more prevalent than the passing game.
Don’t expect the Steelers to make the same mistake. Pittsburgh are a run-oriented team, who have asked Ben Roethlisberger to carry them with his arm in recent seasons.
The Cowboys’ best hope of winning is to get into a shoot-out by taking an early lead, negating the Steelers to pound the ball. The 7-6 Steelers need to win this to remain in contention for a playoff spot in the AFC but the Cowboys need a win equally as badly, since they are also 7-6. And if the Giants fall at Atlanta (as expected), the Cowboys could be in a tie for first place in the NFC East with two to play.
In reality, Dallas have benefitted from some dubious calls in Cleveland and Cincinnati, played four games in a row against rookie quarterbacks – Philadelphia (twice), Cleveland and Washington – and have yet to cover a handicap at home this season. They also have a talented quarterback in Tony Romo who has been running for his life behind a suspect offensive line and through a very easy schedule. The Cowboys could easily have a 4-9 record at this stage. But the guess is that they will get some great production from running back DeMarco Murray, win this and keep the dream alive – and TV viewing figures up – until a week 17 showdown with Washington. This would please the NFL.
The star is on the helmet of the Dallas Cowboys and the star is on the top of the Christmas tree.
You have to have a little bit of faith to back the Cowboys, so how about a little bit of Faith Hill for this week’s festive edition of the Musical Interlude…
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots (C4, Monday, 1.20am)
Weather: 34/35f good chance of Rain/Snow. A Super Bowl preview? Perhaps. That’s why the majority of the American TV viewing public will be tuning in to this prime time clash. And having dealt easily with the Houston Texans, the New England Patriots will hope to do the same to the 49ers. It won’t be easy and layers appear to have overreacted, with BETDAQ’s handicap line giving the visitors a 6-point start.
The 49ers’ passing attack is extremely versatile – it has to be, given their mediocre receiving corps. Closer inspection of their gameplan against a solid Miami defence shows that they have intricate schemes and routes for every play – and they execute them well. It is a hallmark of a Jim Harbaugh-designed offense.
The Patriots can seemingly score upon anyone. But as we’ve said before, their defence isn’t as good as their record indicates. Whether the 49ers have the ability to exploit that weakness with a rookie quarterback is open to question. Colin Kaepernick has not experienced a hostile, cold environment in his short spell as starter and has not faced such a potent team. It is also a night game. How will he adapt if asked to win what should be a close affair?
New England’s defensive line is merely average – although they have a recorded 28 sacks combined in 14 games (compared to the Niners’ 28) – while San Francisco’s defensive line is one of the very best.
Conversely, New England’s offensive line is top-class (it helps that an elite passer with a quick release makes them look good) although they have allowed 20 sacks of Tom Brady, and San Francisco’s offensive line is below average, seeing Alex Smith/Kaepernick downed 38 times (fifth-worst in the NFL).
It’s a strength-on-strength contest and while the Patriots have locked up the AFC East and are gunning for a bye and homefield advantage, the Niners are still facing a challenge from the Seattle Seahawks, who are a game behind in the NFC West standings.
I don’t fully trust rookie quarterbacks on the road and betting against the Patriots has proved costly this season. Still, the Niners have more to play for and the points might be worth taking.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
Weather: 65/80f isolated showers. It is high time that the Miami Dolphins avenged that defeat. You know the one. The 62-7 playoff whipping on January 15, 2000. The last game of the Dan Marino era.
Jacksonville are as bad as they have ever been and Miami are still a middle-of-the-road outfit – but that one really hurt every Miami fan and if there’s any justice, they will kitty curb-stomp these pussy cats. Or maybe just wait until meeting them in the playoffs again. That might be too long for some of us, though.
Change is needed at the top in Jacksonville, so what better way to bring it about than for the Jags to roll over?
That probably isn’t going to happen, however. Miami really should have a better record than they do, having lost three-pointers to Arizona, the New York Jets and Indianapolis, but their problems are easy to see – it is an anaemic offense which has managed to score more than 21 points on just three occasions this term.
The Dolphins need to see further development from rookie passer Ryan Tannehill, who has thrown just eight touchdown passes on the season – one fewer than Jacksonville’s embattled counterpart Blaine Gabbert and the same amount as the Jags’ former back-up, and ex-Miami slinger Chad Henne, who would like nothing more than to beat his former team.
Still, the Jags’ should continue to struggle offensively and Miami’s ground game has the potential to be the main weapon again. Take the Dolphins to cover the 7-point BETDAQ handicap.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Weather: 46/57f chance of showers. There are plenty of games with implications this week, but this AFC West clash isn’t one of them – unless jostling for draft position floats your boat. Both have been out of the playoff picture since around Week 2 and they have won five games between them (from a total of 26 played). Oakland have lost their last six, but it says plenty about the Chiefs that they are considered 2.5-point underdogs on the BETDAQ handicap.
The Chiefs have only tasted defeat twice in their last 10 trips to Oakland and thumped the Raiders 28-0 in this fixture last season. Conversely, the Raiders have won the last six in Kansas City. Go figure.
There shouldn’t be much scoring and it should be a close affair, but it is tough to see the Chiefs taking advantage of Oakland’s awful pas defence with Brady Quinn having few receiving threats, particularly since Dwayne Bowe has been ruled out with a rib injury.
Carson Palmer has been playing better than Quinn in any case, so we’ll take the Raiders to cover a small handicap in their last home game of the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Domed stadium, so weather is inconsequential. How is it you can pass for 411 yards and rush for 102 and still lose? Tampa did just that when they hosted the Saints in October and lost 35-28, winning with a last-second goal-line stand. Both have slim playoff chances but it is a division rivalry and we should expect it to be close – since 2002, 14 of their 21 clashes has seen a winning margin of seven points or less.
The BETDAQ handicap has the Saints as 3.5-point favourites, but we’re inclined to take the Buccaneers to bounce back following their poor performance against the Eagles. They could even their record at 7-7 with victory and have the best pass defence in the NFL, allowing only 78.2 yards per game on average.
The Saints don’t run the ball well and managed just 81 yards against the Bucs in their last meeting. They also don’t have a great record against the Bucs in the Louisiana Superdome, possessing a mere 13-9 record.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
Domed stadium, so weather is inconsequential. The Atlanta Falcons’ last two playoff defeats in 2010 and 2011 came against the eventual Super Bowl champion and they can gain a measure of revenge for their last inept post-season performance, a 24-2 loss to the Giants.
It is a game that the Giants need far more than the hosts, who have all but locked up the No1 seed in the NFC. The Giants are just a game ahead of the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East and would lose the tiebreaker if their win/loss records were identical.
The Falcons are more than a product of their easy schedule, but they have to prove it – and quarterback Matt Ryan is in a slump. He has three excellent receivers in Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones, but if he can’t get the ball to them consistently, Atlanta could well be one-and-done in the playoffs again.
Falcons need to take advantage of the Giants’ shoddy run defence and while Michael Turner is no longer a burner, the flame has yet to be fully extinguished and he should be backed to get the job done in the red zone. The hosts are 1-point BETDAQ handicap favourites but they should be able to end a run of seven consecutive home losses to the Giants.
Washington Redskins @ Cleveland Browns
Weather: 39/57f chance of showers. The guess is that Washington will likely sit Robert Griffin III for this one and see where the arm of Kirk Cousins takes them. But Washington’s running game should prove effective against this solid-looking Cleveland defence and while the Browns are on a three-game winning streak, the Redskins are looking towards the NFC East title – just as they predicted at the beginning of the season. Of course, the NFL would not wish the playoff picture to be settled with two weeks of the season remaining, so there could be the odd upset. But while rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden has shown flashes of potential, the Browns’ passer is just as likely to toss interceptions as he is to hit his receivers. The hosts have to play a clean game to have a chance of winning, so Washington get the nod to cover the handicap, which is currently off the BETDAQ boards but should be around the 1-point mark in favour of the Redskins when the team news is released.
Suggestions:
Chicago +3
Dallas +1
San Francisco +6
Oakland -2.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
Atlanta -1
Miami -7
Washington +1
NY Giants/Atlanta Over 51 points
San Francisco/New England Under 46 points
Green Bay/Chicago Under 43 points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 14: 6-8-1
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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