SONY OPEN: As the first full-field event of 2017 and a regular stop on the PGA Tour for the past 50-plus years, the Sony Open feels like the true starting point of the 2017 season. The obscure fall events and limited-field engagements are behind us now, and the march to Augusta National has officially begun.
Waialae Country Club in beautiful Honolulu is the host venue, as it has been for each of the past 51 stagings, and the 156-man field is highlighted by some of the biggest names in the sport. Jordan Spieth heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 7.0, and he’s followed closely by the world’s hottest player, Hideki Matsuyama (10.5), and Justin Thomas (17.0), the winner of last week’s SBS Tournament of Champions. Other notables who will be teeing it up this week include Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Russell Knox, and Jimmy Walker, who won back-to-back titles here in 2014 and 2015 and is coming off a solid 9th-place showing at Kapalua.
Waialae is a par-70 that is short by Tour standards, measuring just 7,044 yards, and is mostly protected by the ever-present wind and a collection of small, firm Bermuda greens. Scores are usually low– three of the past four champions have reached the 20-under mark, including last year’s winner, Fabian Gomez– but if the wind picks up things can get tricky. It’s an old-fashioned layout that favors the experienced player, with 15 of the past 16 editions being won by someone age 30 or older. That may be something to keep in mind when we consider the names at the very top of the market…
Here are my recommendations:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Brandt Snedeker (29.0)- Runner-up in this event last year and a man who always seems to play well at the beginning of the season, Snedeker’s price has been driven up a bit this week after he uncharacteristically struggled with the flat stick at last week’s SBS Tournament of Champions. I attribute the issues to the time spent away from competitive golf, and now that he has a few rounds under his belt and is returning to greens that he has mastered before I think we’ll see a return to normalcy. And in Snedeker’s case, “normalcy” is pretty darn good, especially on grainy Bermuda greens like the ones at Waialae (Snedeker always plays his best on Bermuda). He hit the ball extremely well last week, shooting 12-under despite missing a boatload of putts, so there’s tangible reason for optimism here aside from his brilliant play 12 months ago. And at nearly 30/1, the price is right.
Pat Perez (52.0)- The affable, laid-back Perez has been playing some terrific golf lately, stringing together a 7th-1st-3rd run in his last three starts, with the “3rd” coming at last week’s SBS Tournament of Champions. He always plays his best golf out West and has been particularly good at this tournament, racking up four top-10s and finding the top-20 in three of his past four appearances, so he obviously knows his way around Waialae. And the course is good for him because it mostly takes his worst club– the driver– out of his hands. Perez has always been known as a streaky player who can really string together some birdies when he gets it going, and he’s definitely had it going lately, which makes him a worthwhile investment at what is a very reasonable price.
Brian Stuard (182.0)- It’s always fun to strike gold on a longshot, and this week Brian Stuard stands out as a guy who might just be able to answer some prayers. He triumphed at last year’s Zurich Classic, so we know he has it in him, and he appeared to be in decent form last week as he broke par in all four rounds at Kapalua. Critically, he has a nice record in this event, finishing 6th or better twice in four career appearances, and most of his best results have come at places that are broadly similar to Waialae– layouts that prioritize accuracy and precision over distance and shot-making ability. He doesn’t contend often, but there’s reason to believe Stuard may make some noise this week. He’s certainly worth whatever you can find in your couch cushions…
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jordan Spieth (1.8) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (2.0)
A lot has been written about Matsuyama lately, and with good reason– he’s won four times in his past six starts and finished runner-up the two times he didn’t win, including last week at Kapalua. He has a miserable record at Waialae, however, missing the cut in each of his four appearances, so enthusiasm should be curbed a bit, I believe. Spieth looks to have gotten his groove back with his win in Australia and 3rd-place showing last week, and the tight, windswept Waialae layout seems like it was built with him in mind. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.8
Russell Knox (1.91) vs. Billy Horschel (2.0)
Knox seems like he has the type of game that would be perfect for Waialae but it sure hasn’t translated to results, as he’s missed the cut four times in five career Sony Open starts. He’s slightly overpriced this week, while Horschel seems to be flying under the radar despite a runner-up finish in his last start (the RSM Classic). The man they call Billy Ho traditionally thrives on windy, Bermuda-covered courses like Waialae, and though he hasn’t played this tournament in four years, he did make the cut in his last appearance. Recommendation: Horschel at 2.0
