Chicago Bears (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -7.5 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Chicago: WR Brandon Marshall (questionable– ankle), WR Alshon Jeffery (questionable– hamstring), WR Josh Morgan (doubtful– groin), FB Tony Fiammetta (out– hamstring), G Matt Slauson (out– ankle), C Roberto Garza (out– ankle)
San Francisco: CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– toe), OT Anthony Davis (questionable– hamstring), CB Chris Culliver (questionable– concussion), C Marcus Martin (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 12-3 in Chicago’s last 15 road games
The OVER is 5-1 in San Francisco’s last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 4-0 in San Francisco’s last 4 games overall
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. The Bears have one of the NFL’s best offenses, a unit that can hurt you on the ground or through the air. They finished 2nd in the NFL in points scored last season, so they’re just about as good as it gets.
2. The San Francisco defense is not the same, dominant group that people saw in 2013. Only one starter returns in the secondary, and linebackers Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman– two critical players– both remain sidelined. The Bears are catching the 49ers defense at the perfect time.
3. The line has climbed all the way to 7.5 on BETDAQ, which is far too many points in this situation. The Niners are a ball-control team that doesn’t score enough to blow a game open, while the Bears have the offensive personnel to give the San Francisco defense some serious headaches. Even if the Niners control the game, a backdoor cover is a distinct possibility with a number like 7.5 and an offense like Chicago’s.
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. The Bears ranked last in the NFL in run defense in 2013 and last week they were trampled by a Buffalo offense that ranked 2nd in the league in rushing last season. Guess who ranked 1st in rushing last year? Guess who is going to run all over the Bears on Sunday night? Same answer to both questions…
2. Objectively speaking, Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler is a gutless turnover machine. Okay, maybe I’m being a little harsh, but Cutler’s history of periodic meltdowns that result in inexplicable turnovers can’t be ignored. He’s the most unreliable quarterback in the league this side of Tony Romo (who, coincidentally, the Niners tormented last week).
3. Despite avoiding a losing record last season the Bears were the single wort team in NFL to back, covering just 4 times in 16 games. They also failed to cover last week, they’re 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 0-4 ATS the last four times they’ve come to San Francisco… shall I continue? Chicago is a bad bet here, from any angle.
Prediction
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