Vegas won 19 of last 21 Super Bowls, yet according to many respected sources, 60 per cent of the bets are on the New York Giants. Yet the New England Patriots are three-point favourites – and favourites have covered the handicap in 73 per cent of all Super Bowls.
While the weight of money is usually seen 48 hours prior to Super Sunday, it seems more likely that any price move would sway towards the Giants.
If enough people believe that the market is going in a particular direction, they will collectively turn this belief into a self-fulfilling prophecy. But that is unlikely to be the case. The handicap won’t fluctuate from its current spot. Not in Vegas, at any rate.
There are a couple of interesting points that it seems no-one is prepared to mention about Super Bowl XLVI (that’s 46 for the Roman Numerically-challenged).
Firstly, the labour dispute between players and owners which was settled in July, was largely down to the negotiating skills of owners Robert Kraft and John Mara… who just so happen to own the Patriots and Giants franchises.
The Super Bowl will be played in Indianapolis, adopted home of Peyton Manning, who has done so much for the city and the NFL in terms of dollars. Make no mistake, the city would not be hosting the Super Bowl in their fancy new stadium if it were not for Manning.
Just for good measure, Manning’s brother, Eli, is the quarterback of the Giants. He goes up against Peyton’s bitterest rivals, the Patriots.
And let’s not forget that Peyton handed the city where he was born, New Orleans, their first Super Bowl, tossing a game-winning interception to the Saints. Could this be a little thank you from the league to the Manning family?
Remember this fundamental rule: Good businessmen ensure that they limit the chance of coincidence and the NFL is big business. Money is more important to owners than winning Super Bowls.
As for Peyton, who has sat out this season with a degenerative neck injury, the likelihood is that he will be released by the Colts on or before March 8, as they are going to select Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck – projected to be the next big thing – with the first pick in April’s draft, rather than pay Manning a $28m bonus.
I would love to see Manning play on. He has done so much for Indianapolis and it will be a shame that economics means he will be sacrificed.
In tribute to (arguably) the best quarterback ever to play the game, the final musical interlude of the season – which seems to me to be the quickest ever (it’s an age thing, obviously) – comes from a young singer/songwriter whom we’re sure will soon make it big. Al Lewis with Peyton Manning’s lament…
Another point worth making about Sunday’s game is the choice of officials. The NFL named John Parry as the head referee and placed him with a crew has never worked together before. That’s an interesting decision for the biggest game of the year, is it not?
Parry ranked 3rd in for most holding calls, 4th in roughing the passer calls, and 7th for defensive pass interference calls. Considering holding has been called in only four of the 10 playoff games so far this season – and the Patriots are rarely called for holding – will Parry stay true to his reputation?
But the real question you want answered is who will win?
The Patriots, in a close one, is my guess. All four previous Tom Brady-era New England Super Bowls have been decided by precisely three points and let’s not forget that there is a lot of money at stake. The TV companies are receiving $3.5m for a 30-second advert.
The playoffs have featured two overtime games, and three more games in which the margin of victory was seven or fewer points. Keeping people’s interest is the key to raking in the cash.
With that in mind, would it surprise anyone that the game could be the first Super Bowl to go into overtime?
And the very cynical among us would say the only reason the Patriots did not go 19-0 was because the Boston Globe (hurrah for investigative journalism, rather than churnalism) blew the lid on the Spygate scandal a week before the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. If so, victory over the Giants could be a little payback from the league.
But forget the cynicism, the percentages back up the Patriots angle anyway.
Overall, the best team (as measured by regular season record) has won 25 and lost 13 Super Bowls. The other seven games involved teams with identical regular season records. Teams that allowed fewer points in the regular season are 29-15 in the Super Bowl (in 2004 the Patriots and Eagles allowed the same number of points) and no team that has allowed 400 points or more in the regular season has won a Super Bowl.
All sorts of interesting trends spring up ahead of the Super Bowl in a bid to predict the winner.
For instance, the team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower jobless rate has won 17 of the past 21 Super Bowls. Through November, the 2011 unemployment rate for the Boston metropolitan area was 6.8 percent, compared to 8.5 percent for the New York metropolitan area. So Boston (New England) trumps New York (Giants), if that trend holds true.
But for all those who mourn the passing of Paul the Prognosticating Octopus (who correctly tipped eight World Cup results before he died) never fear – for a clairvoyant Camel named Princess is here. Inmate of the New Jersey Popcorn Park Zoo, she has apparently correctly tipped five of the last six Super Bowl winners. She goes for the hometown Giants (no, really?).
Betdaq are offering a slew of Super Bowl markets to trade on and some of the more interesting ones concern the player props.
As we know, both teams will pass the ball a lot.
Neither has a strong ground game, although the Patriots are more diverse and have several weapons (see Sunday’s Racing Post for a breakdown of the tactical battle).
The Brady-led offense set a new team record with 6,848 net yards and finished the season with 513 points. That marked New England’s fifth straight year with 400 points or more and second in a row over the 500 mark.
But with tight end Rob Gronkowski nursing a high ankle sprain, he is very unlikely to be a major weapon for Brady – and they will certainly miss Gronk’s blocking ability – so Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker will both have to be major contributors if the Patriots are to win.
Welker’s crisp route-running and sure-handedness means he will, as always, be the primary target and he will get at least six receptions. His total receiving yards target set by the linemakers at Betdaq is 78.5 yards and I’d be a buyer at over that.
Likewise, if the Giants are to keep pace, then Hakeem Nicks will have to get his yards. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is so adept at scheming against the strength of opponents, so their primary focus will be on limiting the vertical threat posed by slot receiver Victor Cruz.
Nicks reminds me of Michael Irvin, in that he uses his size and after-the-catch running ability so well. His total is set at 84.5 receiving yards and while a lofty mark, he could top that.
The Patriots have to run the ball to use play action successfully and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will see at least 10 carries. While he is a more punishing runner between the tackles than a fleet-footed back, he does have the ability to break tackles, so his target of 47.5 yards looks a realistic one. With Gronkowski limited, the Patriots may revert to their jumbo package near the goal-line, so he could also be a viable choice to score a touchdown at any time.
The Patriots, who are only in the Super Bowl because Billy Cundiff went all Scott Norwood on them in the AFC Championship game, have started slowly in many games this season and they tend to defer the kickoff if winning the coin toss. Backing the Giants to score first is, therefore, a better-than-evens chance.
It’s perhaps worth remembering that eight of the last 13 MVP awards have gone to the quarterback of the winning team (quarterbacks have won the award on 24 of 45 occasions) and the fourth quarter has been the highest-scoring period in nine of the last 13 Super Bowls.
Be sure to check out these markets, plus many more besides.
Enjoy the Super Bowl – I’ll plump for a 31-28 overtime victory for New England – but remember: It is pure entertainment; nothing more, nothing less.
Suggestions:
New England – Moneyline
Wes Welker over 78.5 total receiving yards
Hakeem Nicks over 84.5 total receiving yards
BenJarvus Green-Ellis over 47.5 rushing yards
BenJarvus Green-Ellis to score TD at any time
NY Giants to score first
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