Generally speaking, there are two types of sports bettors: those who view wagering on sports as an investment that must turn a profit to be considered successful, and those who gamble simply to make the game, and some small part of their life, more enjoyable. The gambler enjoys the action; he wants to win, of course, but only because we winning fuels more action. It is this type person– the gambler– who is really in his element on Super Bowl Sunday.
The Super Bowl is an occasion to go all out, to spread yourself thin over multiple bets and see what happens. If you push the envelope a bit, you can make literally every second of the game meaningful in some way. This may not be the path for the conservative, profit-minded bettor, but it sure is a fun way to watch a football game, trust me.
BETDAQ is offering no fewer than 46 “prop” markets for Sunday’s game, and over the next two days we’re going to predict the outcome of every single one. See any you like? Jump right in…
*All prices current as of Thursday afternoon
**All prices are to BACK
Coin Flip
Heads– 1.97 Tails– 1.97
Call it the “degenerate test”. I fail every year…or pass, depending on your perspective. At any rate, I have a couple of friends who are all over “tails” this year, and I read some bogus internet article yesterday about how the special Super Bowl coin they were going to flip is heavier on the “heads” side, making “tails” the proper play, supposedly. With that information as my guide, I’m definitely loading up on HEADS.
Largest lead for either team– 14
Under- 1.98 Over- 1.85
There’s obviously a decent chance of a push here with the number sitting exactly at 14, but I lean towards UNDER. Slightly better odds, and I expect a fairly low-scoring game.
Total QB Sacks– 4.5
Under- 1.68 Over- 2.2
Neither one of these defense specializes in rushing the passer; New England ranked 13th in sacks this season while Seattle ranked 20th, and the Patriots haven’t yet notched a postseason sack (Seattle has 3). Taking all of that into account, I’ll go ahead and back the UNDER despite the less-than-favorable odds.
Total Made Field Goals– 3.5
Under- 1.72 Over- 2.14
I’ll go ahead and start a theme that we’ll ride throughout this process: I think we’re going to see a lot of field goals in this game. These are two good defenses, but the offenses will have enough success to create some scoring opportunities. Turning those opportunities into touchdowns, though, is another matter. Both teams have good kickers, so a bunch of missed kicks isn’t really a concern. I like the OVER.
Longest field goal made– 44.5
Under- 2.00 Over- 1.82
Both Stephen Gostkowski and Steven Hauschka have excellent range and weather won’t be an issue in Glendale. Gimmie the OVER.
Shortest field goal made– 25.5
Under- 1.89 Over- 1.93
This one’s really a crapshoot. Just so you know, a 25-yard field goal means the ball was snapped from the 8 yard line. So, an UNDER bet here means you think one of the defenses will be able to make a stand inside the 10 (specifically, inside the 9)… I like the chances of that happening.
Will both teams make a FG greater than 32 yards?
Yes- 2.24 No- 1.66
The odds are against this happening– it only happens in about 38% of NFL games– but, again, I think we’re going to see several field goals in this one, and at 2.24 the price is right for a YES bet.
Will there be a field goal in the 1st quarter?
Yes- 1.87 No- 1.96
I’m not backing off now! We’re going to sink or swim with this field goal hunch, so I’m going YES here.
Will the Patriots convert a 4th down?
Yes- 2.32 No- 1.62
While Belichick is no Riverboat Ron, he’s not afraid to go for it on 4th down when he has to, and Tom Brady is famed for his effectiveness on the quarterback sneak. Still, against the Seattle defense simply deciding to go for it is no guarantee of success, and I think NO is the right play here.
Will the Seahawks convert a 4th down?
Yes- 2.36 No- 1.6
Pete Carroll has certainly shown a willingness to roll the dice, and in Marshawn Lynch the Seahawks have a short-yardage bull. At 2.36, I like a YES bet.
Which team will accumulate more penalty yards?
NE- 2.14 Sea- 1.73
While Seattle was technically the most-penalized team in the NFL this season, the Patriots actually surrendered more penalty yards per game– 65.65 to 61.78. This could be because of grab-happy defensive backs like Brandon Browner, and when combined with favorable odds it’s pushed me towards the NEW ENGLAND side of this particular bet.
Will at least one quarter be scoreless?
Yes- 3.4 No- 1.32
I think both defenses will have success and I expect a fairly low-scoring game, so I’m going to take a chance and go with YES here.
Will either team have 3 unanswered scores?
Yes- 1.51 No- 2.6
One team scoring three consecutive times is not at all difficult or uncommon, as a matter of fact it happens in the majority of NFL games. A No bet just feels like a real longshot to me, so I’ll go with YES and pay the price.
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?
Yes- 2.52 No- 1.54
This feels like one of those that’s trying to lure you away from the percentage play… look, non-offensive touchdowns are rare, and neither one of these teams has a difference-making kick/punt returner. NO.
Will there be a score in the last 2 minutes of the 1st half?
Yes- 1.33 No- 3.3
In this game we have a great defense and a good defense, which is enough for me to take a chance on NO at 3.3. I know, I know, this pick runs slightly contradictory to my field goal bets.
Will the team that scores first win?
Yes- 1.56 No- 2.46
Both of these teams have shown the ability to come from behind– Seattle’s miraculous NFC Championship game victory speaks for itself, and New England faced a 14-point 2nd-half deficit against Baltimore– so I think NO makes some sense here, especially given the unfriendly price for “Yes”.
Will the team that scores last win?
Yes- 1.51 No- 2.58
There are many, many different scenarios in which the team that scores last loses the game, but counting on that happening really feels like grasping for straws. I’ll go with YES here.
Will both teams have the lead in the 1st half?
Yes- 2.26 No- 1.65
Considering that I expect this to be a close game and I’m already betting on the team that scores first to eventually lose, I think a YES bet is the proper thing to do here. The price is right.
Will there be a 2-point conversion attempt?
Yes- 3.2 No- 1.35
Neither one of these coaches would be mistaken for Chip Kelly, though both have shown a willingness to go for 2 on occasion. “Attempt” is all we need, and 1.35 is a steep price to pay… I think I’ll take a chance on YES.
Will there be a successful 2-point conversion?
Yes- 4.5 No- 1.2
Though I’ll roll the dice with a bet on a 2-point conversion attempt, betting on a successful conversion is another matter. Even if one is attempted, which is fairly unlikely, a conversion is far from a guarantee, especially when you consider the defenses involved. Even at the tough-to-swallow price of 1.2, I’ll go with NO.
Total number of lost fumbles– 1.5
Under- 1.52 Over- 2.56
Though New England’s uncanny knack for not fumbling has been well-documented recently, the Seahawks forced 20 fumbles this season, 5th-most in the league. And Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has fumbled a staggering 11 times this year, though somehow he hasn’t lost a single one. His luck is just about due to run out, and I think I’ll go with OVER at 2.56.
Total net yards in game– 669.5
Under- 1.91 Over- 1.91
This game features a good defense, a great defenses, and two offenses that prioritize time of possession. I’ll take the UNDER without thinking twice.
Check back Friday for Part 2…
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