In a perfect world, the Super Bowl would feature the two best teams in the NFL. This doesn’t always happen, of course, as the unpredictable nature of the sport means the postseason is a crapshoot where upsets are a regular occurrence. This season, though, most observers agree that the two “best” teams are New England and Seattle, and, lo and behold, those are the teams that will meet in Glendale in six days to decide Super Bowl XLIX.
Oddsmakers have no idea who is going to win– after Seattle opened as a 2-point favorite the game was quickly bet to Pick ’em, where it now sits at sportsbooks around the world (including BETDAQ). This marks the first time in 33 years that the Super Bowl has had a point spread as close as 1 point.
Seattle has the NFL’s best defense, they lead the league in rushing, and they won last year’s Super Bowl by 35 points. New England averages 30 points per game, they have a top-10 defense, and their head coach and starting quarterback each have three Super Bowl rings. This is truly a Goliath vs. Goliath matchup.
And yet, both teams have issues that should worry their respective bettors heading into the game. We spend plenty of time talking about the positives– it’s easy to speak highly of the league’s two best teams, after all– but as bettors it’s important to look at the entire picture. With that in mind, here are the main causes for concern for each team:
New England
The Patriots were decent against the run this season, ranking 9th in rush yards allowed, but a closer inspection of their rushing defense suggests that they may not be able to hold up against Seattle’s league-leading rushing attack. It’s New England’s performance against “power running” teams, specifically, that is concerning.
Take their two games against the New York Jets, for instance. Calling the Jets a “poor man’s” version of the Seahawks may still be a bit insulting to the ‘Hawks– comparing the two teams in any manner is probably a disservice to Seattle– but it isn’t too farfetched. Like the Seahawks, the Jets attempt to win (key word: attempt) with a dominating defense and an offense built around the power running game. While they weren’t as good as Seattle in either area, the Jets did effectively run the ball and stop the run this season, ranking 3rd in rushing offense and 5th in rushing defense (Seahawks 1st rush off., 3rd rush def.). They suffered from a leaky secondary and terrible quarterback play, two areas where Seattle excels. However, the Jets are probably as close to a facsimile of the Seahawks as New England has seen this year, even though they won just 4 of their 16 games. That’s what’s important to remember here: the Jets are very similar stylistically to Seattle, they’re just much worse in every area. So bad, in fact, that both head coach Rex Ryan and general manager John Idzik were fired at season’s end.
In New York’s two games against New England, though, their style proved quite effective. Though the Patriots won both games, they put forth two of their worst performances of the season, winning by just 3 combined points despite being a 9.5-point favorite in Week 7 and a 10-point favorite in Week 16. The Jets rushed for 334 combined yards in the two games compared to just 152 for New England, controlling the action and keeping Tom Brady on the sidelines.
This brings up some obvious questions, of course: if the Jets were able to overpower the New England front seven and run at will, what it going to look like when the Seahawks try the same thing? Make no mistake, the Seattle rushing attack is significantly better than the one in New York. The Seahawks boast one of the league’s top running backs and a quarterback who is devastatingly effective at running the read-option. New York takes a “by committee” approach to the running back position and they have a quarterback who isn’t a threat as a runner. The Seahawks averaged 172 rush yards per game this year, compared to 142 for the Jets. So… how, again, is New England going to slow down Marshawn Lynch, Russell Wilson, Robert Turbin, and Co. if they couldn’t stop the Jets? Do they have any prayer of doing so? And if not, if Seattle is able to move the ball effectively and run at will, do the Patriots have any chance of winning? Remember, the Seattle defense led the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed this season. In other words, they ain’t the Jets.
Seattle
For a championship team, the Seahawks have a stunning lack of skill-position talent on offense. Yes, Marshawn Lynch is one of the NFL’s best running backs. Yes, Russell Wilson is an exceedingly capable young quarterback who has proven unflappable in the toughest of situations. Aside from that, they have… what exactly? Would leading receiver Doug Baldwin even see the field if he played for a team like Denver, Arizona, or Green Bay (or Detroit, or Atlanta, or Chicago, or San Francisco, or Dallas)? Where is the receiver that demands a double-team? Where is the tight end that defenses struggle to match up with? Where is the guy with game-breaking speed, or the ultra-reliable 3rd-down option? The Seattle offense is notably devoid of these guys, which is why they ranked 28th in pass yards per game this season.
Of course, most of the time the Seahawks are able to mask these shortcomings because of their dominant defense and overpowering running game. However, in last week’s NFC Championship game they were put in a tough situation by Green Bay, and they looked decidedly ordinary in trying to claw back before an absolutely miraculous sequence– one that included an onside kick recovery– delivered them the win.
It was interesting to see the “Twitter mob” turn on the Seahawks in the 3rd quarter of that game, when it appeared as if Green Bay was going to win. Suddenly, a team that has been above criticism for most of the past two years became the target of every armchair quarterback with an internet connection. It was as if an entire nation of football fans suddenly realized that the Seattle offense has very limited weaponry and isn’t well-suited to win a “shootout” or erase a double-digit deficit. Where was Percy Harvin, or Golden Tate? How could a team with such obvious flaws be such a heavy favorite over Aaron Rodgers and his highly-motivated teammates?
While the Seahawks avoided disaster in that game and re-assumed their position as the NFL’s resident bully, the criticism that surfaced when they were behind does have some validity. It’s true, the Seattle passing attack may not be advanced enough to succeed without a dominant defense and running game. They really were exposed by Green Bay, and that game wouldn’t have even been competitive if the Packers had taken advantage of some red-zone opportunities in the first half. New England is similar to Green Bay in that both teams have explosive, balanced offenses, but the Patriots are much better on defense than the Packers. The Pats finished the regular season ranked 9th against the run, as opposed to 23rd for Green Bay, and they surrendered just 19.6 points per game. Last week they totally dominated the 3rd-ranked Indianapolis offense, limiting the Colts to 7 points and 209 total yards. Now they face an offense that’s worse by any objective measure– the Seahawks averaged 31 fewer yards and 4 fewer points per game than Indianapolis this year– so what should we expect? Can the plodding Seattle offense keep up with Tom Brady and the high-flying Pats? Based on what we saw in the NFC Championship game, it doesn’t seem likely, does it?
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