All that stands between Seattle and a Super Bowl ring is an elite offense led by a Hall of Fame quarterback. That offense is as good or better than anything the Seahawks have seen all year. Bettors notoriously love offense and they love big-name quarterbacks, so there was heavy action against Seattle in the days after the initial line was released, which resulted in fairly significant line movement– the Seahawks opened as a 2-point favorite but are no longer favored. What should we expect?
The above paragraph is an accurate representation of the current situation. It’s also an entirely accurate representation of the situation exactly one year ago, when Seattle prepared to face Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.
You see, we’ve been here before. The Seahawks opened as a 2-point favorite over Denver last year before heavy public action made the Broncos the favorites. This year we saw an identical opening line– Seattle -2– and another wave of public money favoring Seattle’s opponent. Yes, people tripped over themselves to get their bets down on Belichick, Brady, and the Patriots after this matchup was set, just as they had been so eager to back Manning and the Broncos last year.
The result of that game, in case you needed a reminder– Seattle 43, Denver 8.
What more does this Seahawks team have to prove? They have a defense that’s among the best in NFL history, as they’ve led the league in both yards allowed and points allowed for two consecutive years. They have an offense that leads the NFL in rushing and is led by an unflappable young quarterback who has been a bettor’s dream in his brief career, compiling an incredible 37-18 mark against the spread (42-13 overall). They’ve won 8 straight games, seven by double-digits. Their opponent on Sunday, New England, is habitually overvalued in situations like this, covering just 4 times in their last 15 playoff games and failing to cover in four consecutive Super Bowl appearances.
While the Patriots’ recent postseason struggles should open bettors’ eyes, there are more tangible reasons to favor Seattle in this matchup. For one, the Pats will likely have trouble with Seattle’s league-leading rushing attack. The Seahawks averaged 172.6 rushing yards per game this season and they rolled up 194 on Green Bay in the NFC Championship game, and though the Patriots ranked 9th against the run this year, a closer examination of their performance reveals a defense that can’t hold up against the NFL’s top rushing attacks. Chicago’s Matt Forte, Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles, and Green Bay’s Eddie Lacy all had success against the New England defense, but it was the two games the Patriots played against the New York Jets that could be particularly illuminating when handicapping Sunday’s matchup.
Calling the Jets a “poor man’s Seattle” is probably still an insult to the Seahawks. There’s a wide gulf between the NFC champion Seahawks and the 4-12 Jets, a team that’s now starting over with a new coach and general manager. However, the teams are somewhat similar stylistically– they both lean on their defense and the power running game. The Jets ranked 3rd in the league in rushing offense this season and 5th in rushing defense. Seattle ranked 1st and 3rd in those respective categories. And one thing’s for sure: when the Jets faced the Patriots this year, their style was pretty darn effective. They ran for 334 combined yards in two games while holding New England to 152, and they lost the two games by 3 combined points (27-25 Wk. 7, 17-16 Wk. 16) despite the Patriots being favored by 9.5 points in Week 7 and by 10 in Week 16. In other words, the Jets– a team with a strong front seven on defense and a strong running game, but not much else– were a difficult matchup for New England. The Seahawks are better on defense than the Jets (much better), they average 30 more rush yards per game, and, critically, they have an elite quarterback. Do you see where I’m going here?
Fact is, this is a dream matchup for the Seahawks. They’ll be able to do exactly want they want to do on offense– run the ball at, over, and around the New England defense– and if you’re thinking the Patriots are going to light up the scoreboard in this game, you may want to think again. The Pats won’t be able to run the ball, and Rob Gronkowski is their only pass-catcher who is a true difference-maker. All-Pro safety Kam Chancellor has already spoken about taking on the challenge of guarding Gronkowski, and if Gronk is neutralized… what then for Tom Brady? Do you really think the likes of Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell are going to succeed against the Legion of Boom, the secondary that has handled far more imposing receivers? Look at last year’s Super Bowl. Look at how Peyton Manning and the Broncos, statistically the greatest offense in NFL history, were utterly broken by this Seattle defense. Exactly what have we seen over the last 12 months that would lead us to expect any other outcome?
This game isn’t difficult to handicap: the Seahawks are clearly the better team, and the public’s undying love for the Belichick/Brady Patriots has created a favorable market for Seattle bettors. I suggest you act accordingly.
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