ATP Open de Nice Cote d’Azur – Monday 21st May until Sunday 27th May 2012
Unusually, I write this week’s piece in a state of limbo as the winner of the Internazionali BNL D’Italia is yet to have been decided. Inclement weather meant Sunday’s first match between eventual champion Maria Sharapova and China’s Li Na was very much a stop-start affair, leaving the tournament organisers with a dilemma on their hands before the Nadal/Djokovic showdown. Nevertheless, after much deliberation involving both camps, it was decided that Sunday’s final would be postponed until Monday lunchtime, much to the dismay of the Italian crowd. What that ultimately means is that we could be looking at yet another win for the BETDAQ column, should Nadal emerge victorious in the rearranged final.
Seven days from now, the year’s second Grand Slam will have commenced and I for one cannot wait. Despite Wimbledon being mine and many other people’s idea of the top major, Roland Garros has a very special place in my heart. Back in 2004, unheralded Argentinian Gaston Gaudio surprised many people by lifting the trophy in Paris. Not me. My 40/1 pick of Gaudio proved to be an inspired one and I took no greater pleasure than being told by my then local bookmaker that my £2 was the only money they had taken on the unseeded South American pre-tournament. I can truthfully say I could probably count on both hands the number of points I missed during that very fortnight eight years ago and ever since then, I’ve been left fascinated by the tournament as a whole. Before then however, we have a small matter of an ATP 250 event that gives players one final opportunity to get their game into shape prior to the French Open commencing next Sunday.
Picturesque Nice on the South East coast of France is where the players find themselves this week and arguably there is no better preparation for Roland Garros. Defending champion Nicolas Almagro is back to defend his crown from twelve months ago and will enter the event a warm favourite. Almagro has more than made a living taking part and winning these ATP 250-level events and I expect his reputation as such a player to be further enhanced this coming week. The Spaniard is enjoying a solid year having won the event in Sao Paulo, as well as a final in Buenos Aires, a semi final in Chennai, and three further quarter finals. I see ‘Nico’ as a player that is unlikely to win a Grand Slam in his career. That said, if the familiar faces of Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray, and to an extent Ferrer, Berdych, and Del Potro aren’t turning up for these type of events, Almagro is as solid a contender as any. He does have a frustrating tendency to go on a mental walkabout during some of his matches so he does come with a warning. All the same he’s a very talented player and deserves to be taken very seriously in any clay court event.
The ATP World Tour only returned to Nice in 2010 for the first time in fifteen years so there isn’t much in the way of recent ‘course’ form to go off. 2010 champion Richard Gasquet doesn’t compete this year and other than Almagro, none of the eight seeded players have made it past the last eight. Having said that, top seeded American John Isner and second seed Gilles Simon have yet to compete here. Both have impressed me this season though and provide a real threat to Almagro, making this anything other than a foregone conclusion.
The top half of the draw looks the weaker section which makes it a little unfortunate that Almagro finds himself in the opposite side. Both John Isner and the fourth-seeded Frenchman Gael Monfils will be desperate to string together a few positive results heading into the French Open, especially as I think it is fair to say that both of their respective forms have been patchy at best. I’d certainly expect one of them to make the final because I’m not completely convinced that any of the unseeded players in their section have the game to trouble one or both of them. Monfils may perhaps be the most vulnerable of the seeds but if he could negotiate his second round match against either American qualifier Brian Baker or Ukrainian Sergiy Stakhovsky, a potentially mouth-watering last eight meeting with talented Australian Bernard Tomic could be his (and our) reward.
I’d be hopeful that Almagro would be good enough to win the event this week and at very worst, I’d expect the Spaniard to trade at a price somewhat lower than at present.
Selection – Nicolas Almagro
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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