ATP Bangkok & Kuala Lumpur (Monday 24th September – Sunday 30th September 2012)
Last week really couldn’t have turned out much better for my BETDAQ column picks. It often seems difficult enough to pick one winner in any given week but to have enjoyed double success over the last seven days was particularly pleasing. I can’t take too much credit for picking top seed and 13/8 tournament favourite Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Metz, given the lack of imagination. Martin Klizan at 12/1 on the other hand gave me immense satisfaction, not to mention a nice bank boost! The 23 year-old Slovakian continued his fine run of recent form in St Petersburg by defeating Fabio Fognini in Sunday’s final. The fact that Klizan struggled through against Mikhail Youzhny in a little under four hours on Saturday, coupled with him playing doubles all week left me feeling that fatigue could be a real factor against Fognini. I needn’t have worried as Klizan saw off the Italian in 69 minutes to secure his first ATP tour title. A cheeky Klizan/Tsonga double would have paid a touch over 33/1 so if you had the foresight to stick a few coins on that, I offer you my congratulations. Finally, it’s worth noting that Tsonga and Klizan were my 13th and 14th winning tips of the season and with seven weeks left on the 2012 calendar, here’s hoping we can profit from a few more winners between now and November.
We’ll start this week with a preview of the event in Thailand where Bangkok celebrates its 10th staging of the tournament. The top three seeds in Janko Tipsarevic, Richard Gasquet, and Milos Raonic have never played here previously so past experience shouldn’t play too big a part in deciding the winner here. Arguably as unoriginal as my pick of Tsonga last week, Tipsarevic looks a strong favourite to me and should take all the beating. The world number nine who is chasing his second tour title of the season is back in action for the first time since a quarter final defeat to David Ferrer earlier this month at the US Open and will be well rested ahead of his campaign. His draw also looks a good one. He will avoid both Gasquet and Raonic until the final and whilst ‘Tipsy’ has a negative head-to-head record against fourth seeded Frenchman Gilles Simon, I’m encouraged that their last meeting was indeed won by the Serbian. The consistency that Tipsarevic has brought to his game over the last 12-18 months is a huge asset to have and I think Bangkok presents a decent opportunity for Tipsarevic to secure a title on his reappearance to the ATP tour.
Selection – Janko Tipsarevic
The second event on tour this week is also in Southeast Asia and it is Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia that has the honour. I wouldn’t be audacious enough to insult the intelligence of the usual BETDAQ column readers by putting up another short-priced tournament top seed and David Ferrer is exactly that. I’ve successfully put Ferrer up four times this year at prices ranging from 4/5 to 3/1 during both clay court and grass court events but 11/8 about Ferrer for a title indoors that may separate some players by the odd tie break here and there looks skinny enough to me. I’m not saying the Spanish world number five can’t win the event but a price that short would make a punter think Ferrer is competing on his favoured clay which isn’t the case. The likes of Feliciano Lopez, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Kei Nishikori look more than equipped to cause Ferrer some degree of difficulty over the next seven days and it is one of the aforementioned trio that I’ll put forward as potential winner.
Third seed Kei Nishikori made the semi final here last year where he wasn’t disgraced in losing to eventual winner and Bangkok pick Janko Tipsarevic. Three previous matches resulted in Nishikori winning through in three tight sets and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Malaysian crowd pulled Nishikori through in each of those close matches, something which I’m counting on happening again this week. The world number seventeen can boast wins in 2012 against Julien Benneteau, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and David Ferrer, the latter of which was perhaps the clincher in deciding to put Nishikori up as my selection this week. In terms of his draw, he’ll either play a qualifier or Albert Ramos (a player he has beaten twice already in 2012) in round two, followed by a likely quarter final match against either Nikolay Davydenko, or my new favourite player Martin Klizan. Whatever combination of matches Nishikori gets dealt, he’ll fancy his chances this week. I just hope he’s as bullish about his chances as I am.
Selection – Kei Nishikori
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