ATP Barcelona and Bucharest – Monday 23rd April until Sunday 29th April 2012
In the battle of the ‘eights’ last week in Monte Carlo, it was Rafael Nadal who secured his eighth title as opposed to Novak Djokovic winning his eighth successive final against the Spaniard, taking the tally of winners for the column to six in the last seven weeks. It is perhaps easy to say with the benefit of hindsight that Nadal was always going to be incredibly difficult to overcome at an event he has dominated for the best part of a decade. Djokovic’s task was probably made all the more difficult with the untimely and sad passing of his Grandfather during the tournament. Prior to the news, Nadal was still a warm favourite for the title and showed enough in my opinion before Sunday’s one-sided final to prove he was the better player over the course of the week.
There are two further clay court tournaments to get our teeth into this coming week. The stronger of the two events is undoubtedly in Barcelona where Nadal will be keen to transfer his dominance from Monte Carlo to the capital of Catalonia. It almost seems that if Nadal plays here, he wins. Six titles since 2005 demonstrate this fact and the year he didn’t win (2010), he didn’t participate. Understandably, Rafa heads the market once again this week in a weaker field and his prohibitively short price reflects the likelihood of him winning back to back tournaments.
Elsewhere in the field, David Ferrer looks a standout contender to make the final. I fancied him quite strongly last week to make the latter stages of the event in Monte Carlo and to say I was somewhat surprised to see him blown away by Thomaz Bellucci is an understatement. The Brazilian played ‘lights out’ tennis for each and every one of the 68 minutes they were on court and thoroughly deserved his win. Prior to that however, Ferrer was unbeaten on the surface, winning all 12 of his matches on the red stuff (including 2 Davis Cup rubbers). If showing that sort of form this week in Barcelona, he’d have every chance of a likely meeting with Nadal in Sunday’s final. It is by no means a foregone conclusion but I have confidence in the Spaniard’s clay court record against the other seeded players in his half of the draw (Murray, Almagro, and Lopez). I’d stress also that I anticipate Nadal winning the event and would advise Ferrer as a ‘back to lay’ selection this week.
Selection – David Ferrer
The second event of the week is the rescheduled BRD Nastase Tiriac Trophy in Romania. I can’t help but think the rationale behind the moving of the tournament from late-September to late-April is to encourage more players to compete in the run up to the French Open. Sadly, only two of the World’s top twenty players arrive here this week and top seeded Frenchman Gilles Simon will be many people’s idea of the champion this week. Semi-finalist last week, Simon has already won the title twice in Bucharest and has every chance of making it a trio of trophies. I don’t feel the rescheduling will play into his hands however. His exertions last week may take their toll on him this week and despite showing all the right signs over the last seven days, I’d be keener to look elsewhere at the likely prices. Following the withdrawal of Jurgen Melzer, the bottom half of the draw is looking the slightly weak section so it is here I’ll focus my attention. Andreas Seppi is far from a household name. Ranked 44th in the World, Seppi is in the minority of players that can boast a winning record on the dirt (87 wins to 79 defeats). He also has creditable clay court victories against the likes of Melzer, Andreev, and Bellucci over the last couple of years. Despite a handful of first round exits in the Romanian capital, Seppi has a quarter final appearance to his name from last year and to an extent, ticks the tournament form box. He’s a very capable player if nothing else and I’m hopeful more than expectant of a decent run this week from the Italian.
Selection – Andreas Sepp
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