ATP Belgrade, Estoril and Munich – Monday 30th April until Sunday 6th May 2012
Chances. Something David Ferrer had plenty of against Rafael Nadal during Sunday’s final in Barcelona. A break up in both sets, not to mention three set points deep in set one, Ferrer was a couple of points here and there away from making the match very intriguing indeed. Would he have won? Probably not. He would certainly have given Rafa more than a few things to consider.
I mustn’t complain however. Ferrer did everything I expected, and more. He was advised as a ‘back to lay’ selection last week and that is exactly what I did immediately after his semi final win.
Elsewhere in Bucharest, Andreas Seppi was eliminated at the quarter final stage by compatriot Fabio Fognini who himself was defeated in Sunday’s final by top seed Gilles Simon. Needless to say, last week was certainly a week for favourite backers, and so we move onto three more events on the red stuff in Belgrade, Estoril, and Munich.
MUNICH
Perhaps the strongest event of the trio is Munich where seven top-40 players compete, compared to three in Estoril and just one in Belgrade. Top seed and world number five Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will probably fancy his chances in a tournament that lacks strength in depth with regards seasoned clay court players. Of the top eight seeds, Philipp Kohlschreiber (2007), Mikhail Youzhny (2010), and Nikolay Davydenko (2004, 2011) are past winners, Marin Cilic was a beaten finalist at the hands of Youzhny in 2010, and Marcos Baghdatis a previous semi finalist in both 2007 and 2010. Something all these players appear to represent is a distinct lack of general form and I wouldn’t be totally convinced that this could be the week any of them turn it around.
A player I’d be keener to promote as a likely winner and in keeping with the trend of last week’s column is another Italian, Potito Starace (pictured). Twice a Munich quarter finalist, Starace is likely to be brimming with confidence, fresh off the back of a tournament win last week in Bucharest, securing the doubles title with partner Daniele Bracciali. Post-match, Starace stated his intention was to withdraw from the doubles tournament because of the fatigue he was feeling following a Davis Cup tie with Chile.
It is therefore a slight concern that only seven days ago, he was suggesting he was feeling the effects of having played a lot of tennis in recent weeks. I believe he would have pulled out of the event by now if this remained the case and as a consequence, if he’s in decent physical shape and able to continue his winning momentum into this coming week, he’d have to have a good a chance as any of capitalising on a fairly weak-looking draw.
Tsonga as the highest ranked player in the draw is likely to start as a short-priced favourite and with him not having a clay court title to his name, he wouldn’t be the most difficult top seed to oppose this week.
Selection – Potito Starace
ESTORIL
The second strongest event this week is Estoril. Top seed and defending champion Juan Martin Del Potro returns to defend his crown from twelve months ago but with this being the Argentine’s first clay court tennis of the season, I think his lack of action on the dirt could find him out. Similar to Tsonga in Munich, Del Potro’s price is likely to be on the skinny side and for that reason, I’m of the opinion he could find it difficult to match his performance from a year ago.
Stanislas Wawrinka on the other hand is a player who has found some form over the last few months. Semi-finalist in Acapulco and Buenos Aires, Wawrinka continued his good form with a run to the last eight at the ATP 1000 event in Monte Carlo, in what can only be described as a horrible draw. Creditable wins over Feliciano Lopez, Pablo Andujar, and Nicolas Almagro show that the Swiss number two can strut his stuff on clay. He’s never played in Estoril before so there is no previous ‘course’ form to go off. That said, should he show the kind of form that has propelled him back to just outside the world’s top 20, he’s a lively contender in Portugal this week.
Selection – Stanislas Wawrinka
BELGRADE
This week’s final event is in Belgrade and to be brutally honest, it isn’t the strongest ATP 250 event you’ll ever see. Neither Novak Djokovic, Janko Tipsarevic, nor Viktor Troicki have opted to take part this week which will be a real shame for the event organisers and fans alike.
I tend to think that the strength of an event can be judged by the tournament’s top seed and that honour goes to Spaniard Pablo Andujar. The Spanish number seven is certainly no mug around a tennis court. Currently sitting at 38th in the rankings (his highest ever), Andujar has two clay court titles to his name, both of which were won in Casablanca. He certainly has the talent to win the event this week but with so few top players competing this week, I really believe this could be an outsider’s tournament.
Joao Souza is far from a household name. The 6’4” Brazilian is currently outside the world’s top 100, has played only two Grand Slam main draw matches in his career, and has never competed in an ATP 1000 event. So what makes me think he has a remote chance this week in Belgrade? Souza made the last eight earlier this year on the red stuff in Chile, losing to Filippo Volandri. He also has praiseworthy wins from 2011 against the likes of Pablo Andujar, Carlos Berlocq, and Attila Balazs (semi finalist last week in Bucharest) to his name. He plays seventh seeded American Ryan Harrison in round 1 who isn’t a world beater on this surface by any stretch of the imagination. If Souza can win through to round 2, he’ll certainly face a wildcard. I’m also encouraged that Souza nominates clay as his favourite surface on his official ATP tour profile and if putting his best foot forward, he could be the week’s surprise package.
Selection – Joao Souza
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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