Seattle Seahawks (7-4, 5-6 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (7-4, 6-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -1 (39.5)
Significant Injuries
Seattle: G James Carpenter (questionable– ankle), CB Marcus Burley (questionable– hamstring), C Max Unger (questionable– ankle), DE Demarcus Dobbs (questionable– knee), TE Cooper Helfet (questionable– ankle)
San Francisco: WR Bruce Ellington (questionable– ankle), OT Anthony Davis (questionable– concussion), CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– hamstring), RB Alfonso Smith (questionable– back), LB NaVorro Bowman (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Seattle is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game
The UNDER is 6-1 in Seattle’s last 7 games vs. NFC West opponents
The OVER is 5-2 in Seattle’s last 7 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in San Francisco’s last 4 home games
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. The Seahawks have won 4 of their past 5 games and they’re coming off their best performance of the season, a 19-3 beatdown of division leader Arizona. The 49ers, meanwhile, have eked out wins over two terrible teams (NY Giants, Washington) over the past two weeks, scoring 17 points or fewer in both games. Plus, Seattle has had great success in this rivalry lately, covering in each of the past 5 meetings between the two teams.
2. Seattle leads the NFL in total defense (once again) and they shouldn’t have any trouble shutting down the pedestrian San Francisco offense, a unit that ranks 22nd in points scored and has produced 17 points or fewer in 4 of the Niners’ past 5 games.
3. The San Francisco defense is simply overrated– they play well against losing teams/bad offenses but struggle against quality opposition. In their past 5 games against teams with winning records the Niners have surrendered 127 combined points (just over 25 per game), and the Seattle offense is averaging 26.7 points per game in their last four contests.
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. The is a must-win game for the Niners and they’ve beaten Seattle at home 4 consecutive times, so they clearly know how to attack the ‘Hawks on both sides of the ball. Seattle’s win over a shorthanded Arizona team last week (the Cardinals were without starting quarterback Carson Palmer) was their first victory over a winning team since Week 3 and they’ve been terrible on the road this year, covering just once in 5 opportunities.
2. San Francisco has a dominant defense that ranks 2nd in yards allowed, and this week they’ll face a one-dimensional Seattle offense that is severely lacking in skill-position talent. It’s been Marshawn Lynch or bust for the Seahawks this season, as only two teams average fewer pass yards per game, and it’s difficult to imagine Lynch having a big game against a 49ers defense that surrenders just 92.9 yards per game on the ground.
3. In Seattle’s last three road games they lost to Kansas City, squeaked out a 4-point win over Carolina (failing to cover), and lost to St. Louis. Why, then, should we expect them to march into San Francisco and beat a very good 49ers team, especially when you consider that the last time the Seahawks beat the Niners in San Francisco Russell Wilson was living in a college dorm? These teams are evenly-matched, as always, but Seattle’s struggles on the road combined with their lack of a competent passing attack gives San Francisco a clear edge here.
Prediction
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