While many still cling to the belief that the golf season truly ends after the PGA Championship, the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings have $10 million reasons to think differently as they tee it up at The Barclays this week.
This is the first event of a 4-tournament stretch in which the field is whittled down each week until only 30 remain for the Tour Championship. The format is a little hokey, no doubt, but that doesn’t change the fact that we get to watch the world’s best compete with an eight-figure sum on the line. It’s enough to command my attention, and based on BETDAQ’s lively Win Market it looks like I’m not alone.
New Jersey’s Plainfield Country Club will be in the spotlight this week, and judging by what we saw the last time The Barclays was held at Plainfield– back in 2011– I think it’s safe to say that we’re going to see plenty of red numbers. Dustin Johnson was victorious in that rain-shortened 2011 event, shooting a mind-numbing 19-under par over 54 holes. More tellingly, though, was the fact that every player who finished inside the top-30 shot par or better in each of their three rounds. While the course has been slightly lengthened and will play as a Par 70 this week as opposed to a Par 71, we should still expect a birdie-fest, which should make for some entertaining viewing.
There are a few notable absences this week– Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia, for starters– but it’s still an incredibly strong field, so bettors have a plethora of quality options from which to choose. Jordan Spieth is (unsurprisingly) the current favorite at BETDAQ at 6.8, followed by Jason Day (13.0) and Johnson (15.0), but with people like Jimmy Walker, Luke Donald, and Billy Horschel all being offered at better than 100/1, this may be a good week to take the long odds. And from the do as I say, not as I do department (my go-to parenting philosophy, fwiw), here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Justin Rose (15.5)- Rose has been on fire lately, finishing 4th, 3rd, 4th, and 6th in his last four events. He ranks 5th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, which means he’s been striking the ball beautifully all year, and his putting, though still somewhat robotic and mechanical, has improved greatly. Plus, he shot 14-under par and finished 6th the last time this tournament was held at Plainview, so the course obviously suits him. Plenty of people seem to like Rose’s chances this week, and with good reason.
Brooks Koepka (29.0)- I’ve admittedly been in the tank for Koepka this year, backing him several times to mixed results. I just feel strongly that a breakthrough win in a big event is coming, and based on what we’ve seen out of him lately I don’t see any reason why it couldn’t come this week. I mean, the guy has finished 18th or better in each of his last seven starts and he’s been especially good over the past month, finishing 6th at the Wyndham, 5th at the PGA, and 6th at the WGC-Bridgestone. With his length he’ll be able to overpower some holes at Plainview, much like Dustin Johnson did in 2011, and he’s a great putter, too, ranking 8th on Tour in strokes gained putting. Koepka is the real deal– his time has arrived.
Tony Finau (110.0)- Much like Koepka, Finau absolutely bombs the ball off the tee, meaning Plainview will be nothing more than a series of flip wedges and reachable par-5s for him. He’s been playing some good golf, too, with nine top-25s in his last eleven starts, including a 10th-place finish at the PGA Championship. He’s still young and a bit raw, so it remains to be seen whether he can hold it together if he’s around the lead on the back nine on Sunday, but at the current price I think Finau is a great value. He just always seems to be climbing up the leaderboard, doesn’t he?
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jordan Spieth (1.65) vs. Jason Day (2.0)
Despite Day’s triumph at the PGA, Jordan Spieth is still the safest bet in golf and it would be borderline stunning if he were to finish outside the top-10 this week. You can’t say the same about Day, who was forced to withdraw from Wednesday’s pro-am due to a back injury. Easy money here. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.65
David Lingmerth (1.91) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.91)
If you remove the names and just labeled these guys Player A and Player B, this would look like an absolute no-brainer. Lingmerth has simply played much, much better golf than Mickelson over the past couple of months, notching five top-12 finishes and a win in his last seven starts while Phil has been floundering a bit, producing just one top-15 since May. Plus, Mickelson finished an uninspiring 43rd in his last visit to Plainview, so there’s no reason to expect a strong performance this week. Recommendation: Lingmerth at 1.91
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