Maybe I am some kind of adrenaline junkie or I just have a warped sense of humour, but I just love my alter ego with BETDAQ and all the ups and downs that seem to happen each and every week in my punting life (does that just happen to me or is it everyone else as well?).
This week was a great example with the obligatory “one that got away” but overall I made a profit at the end of the weekend – as did everyone who followed my selections, yet again (and if that isn’t the kiss of death for this week I will be amazed).
At the weekend I had come to the strange conclusion that there was money to be made by backing “foreign” horses, be that French/German/Irish etc running over here in the United Kingdom, European horses in America or elsewhere, the list is endless. My theory is that local punters back horses they know understandably), thus making foreign raiders overpriced and good value, though don’t think I have sat there wading through a million results to back that up, because I haven’t. On Saturday I stuck to a couple of bets at Cheltenham, one successful and one frankly disastrous! As regular readers will know I tipped up Medermit each way in the Gold Cup to see him beaten three quarters of a length at 11/1, though I do hope you took the bigger BETDAQ price of 15.0 like I did, or did I hoover it all before you got there? It doesn’t really mater because he didn’t win but I did steal plenty of 3.7 to place from those nice BETDAQ layers and collected a tasty little profit on the race. Naturally (I seem to always have to say this?), the greed factor stepped in and instead of walking away with all that lovely profit, I came to the conclusion that Overturn was the proverbial good thing in the next and that the 4.8 on BETDAQ was akin to taking candy from a baby. Naturally, I had it all wrong and he wasn’t so much beaten as thrashed by favourite Grandouet who picked him off at will, making me look pretty stupid. Damage was limited but it could have been so much better, so over to the football next.
As I have got older (if not wiser), I have learnt that expecting every bet to be a winning one is unrealistic, though I was gutted with the Southampton Blackpool game when the home team equalised in the 93rd minute and my 6.0 BETDAQ bet went down the toilet. It was only a point and a speculative one at that, but it still hurt but then it is called gambling I suppose. My main bet was a nice simple win double on Arsenal Saturday and Sunderland Sunday, and in a pair of uninspiring games (by all accounts), the money was landed and a six point profit on the bet for me to play with early Sunday morning. In Hong Kong they held four Group One races on the turf for massive prize money, and with European raiders it was time to put my ideas to the test. Trying to weigh up international form is enough to scramble my brains, but I was unwilling to bet blindly and chose two horses to back each way to very small stakes, who both looked overpriced. First up came 2000 Guineas runner up Dubawi Gold, poorly drawn in the mile, but only beaten six lengths by Frankel at Newmarket way back in April. In a race of this quality I would have hoped for a little 10/1 or thereabouts but stole a couple of quid just before the off at 80.0 to win and 22.0 to place with BETDAQ, only to see him beaten less than a length at the line but the theory still holds and he was certainly overpriced. The only other one I had real money on was German raider Zazou in the Cup with 37.0 to win and 9.5 the place too tempting for a horse who had beaten Rio De la Plata last time out and who was reported to be working well by the local press. He was beaten by California Memory and Irian but at those prices the place bet paid off big time and I may be on to something, so watch this space.
Looking ahead to my next list of profits (?), I will start with the footie which seems to be the most profitable of late even if I prefer the horses – after all, money is money. One short priced accumulator and three outsiders, more in hope than confidence could be the way forward this weekend so here we go. EVERTON should be too strong for Norwich (1.6 BETDAQ) as long as someone can score for the goal shy Toffees, while MANCHESTER UNITED away to QPR (1.5 BETDAQ), CHELSEA away to Wigan (1.4 BETDAQ), and SPURS at home to Sunderland (1.4 BETDAQ) should land the main bet, but we only need one of the others to be correct to make us a profit. At the prices, I have to say ARSENAL (5.5 BETDAQ) to win at Manchester City, ASTON VILLA to make the most of home advantage versus Liverpool (4.5 BETDAQ), and BOLTON to win at Fulham (6.5 BETDAQ) all look overpriced and worth a point each.
Darts come next with the PDC World Championship starting last night, and although 2.1 or so is a bit skinny, I am still backing Phil Taylor to win back his crown. I don’t play darts or follow it in great detail, but he is clearly the best player the word has ever seen and I suspect his pride will be wounded, making him more than dangerous and the most likely winner by some margin.
Finally, we need at least one horse a week to keep me happy and as I am not convinced by hot favourite Prospect Wells ahead of the big handicap due off at 3.35 from Ascot Saturday, a point each way on Desert Cry (16.5 to win 4.8 to place with BETDAQ) could be the way forward. He seemed to idle in front when winning on his return but that was his first run since April, so we can expect some improvement, and in Timmy Murphy we have the perfect jockey to ride him tactically and at least get him in to the frame so we can collect!
This week’s suggestions:
Football
2pt Win accumulator – EVERTON (1.5), MANCHESTER UNITED (1.5), CHELSEA (1.4) and SPURS (1.4), all prices with BETDAQ
1pt Win ARSENAL to beat Manchester City (5.5 BETDAQ)
1pt Win ASTON VILLA to beat Liverpool (4.5 BETDAQ)
1pt Win BOLTON to beat Fulham (6.5 BETDAQ).
Darts
3pts Win PHIL TAYLOR to win PDC Darts Championship (2.1 BETDAQ)
Horse Racing
1pt Win 1pt place DESERT CRY 3.35 Ascot Saturday (16.5 to win and 4.8 to place with BETDAQ).
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