Not one of my better weeks financially last week, with a few football bets going badly astray, and the rain softened ground providing more surprises than is normal at this time of year, and that’s saying something. Once again my in box was inundated with betting spam, and this week it was a new “system” based on over ten years of results that would put me on the path to riches via backing the top jockeys to win – so obvious when you think about it lol? A quick glance at the stats last season soon showed me that the top three jockeys lost over £500 to £1 stakes at SP, and in 2010 the top SEVEN jockeys all made a loss to level stakes so me thinks there could be a con at work here?
However, it did make me think about the recent changes by the top owners with Paul Hanagan replacing the now retired Richard Hills for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum, and Mickael Barzalona and Silvestre de Sousa signed up to ride for Godolphin but in what order? Plenty of us punters (me included) like to think we have spotted an edge when we see the first choice jockey on board a horse, but how does that now work for Dettori Barzalona and de Sousa? Stats from Dubai suggest maybe (just maybe) there is a de Sousa favouritism from the Bin Suroor yard and a Barzalona favouritism from the Al Zarooni stable but only time will tell if that means anything long term? As if to make life even more confusing, on Wednesday afternoon Barzalona rode Ihtifal for Godolphin and Frankie rode Sweet Ophelia for George Baker so now my head is spinning. Bottom line is, I am less convinced than ever that following a jockey is away to make any profit at all, and if any of you receive the same e-mail as I did, I suggest you send it straight to trash?
Talking of trash, how much money did the BETDAQ layers make out of the Champions League this week? I can speak as a neutral as I failed to get involved but thousands of bets were placed with BETDAQ on both Barcelona and Real Madrid to go through at short odds plus the same again on the glaringly obvious (if unsuccessful) double, leaving BETDAQ layers down the pub, and BETDAQ backers licking their wounds.
Looking forward I have decided to step put of my comfort zone (sorry, I don’t claim to be a professional, and like to have a bet on most things), and this time it’s snooker from Sheffield and the World Championships. I admit I play a bit of 8 ball pool, and although my eyesight is not up to the bigger tables, the BBC are covering the tournament in depth, and there are plenty of opportunities to get involved. Firstly, we have the enigma that is Ronnie O’Sullivan. I have always believed there is a thin line between genius and lunacy, and he seems to walk that particular tightrope better than most. More importantly, he looked in relaxed mode when beating old rival Peter Ebdon 10-4 and that will have scared more than one of his future opponents. At his best he would win this and even the other players would agree with that statement, yet he is still available at 6.0 with BETDAQ and I will be “stealing” some of that before his next match.
Football is winding down now sadly and I learnt last weekend that I ought to tread carefully (that or I just got it all badly wrong of course), so we only need to look at the games that still mean something – mid table mediocrity could easily mean youngsters being given a chance and precious little left to play for. With the Premiership looking far too difficult apart from the heavily odds on and glaringly obvious, so I will spend my weekend working on the lower divisions with the intentions of backing and laying throughout the afternoon to boost the old betting bank ahead of a racing holiday I am taking in May (with my BETDAQ profits I might add). As always with me, value is the name of the game and with Middlesbrough having one last throw of the dice to try and overtake Cardiff and get in to the Championship play offs, 2.6 with BETDAQ to win at Watford looks just a little too tempting. It really is shoot or bust for Tony Mowbray’s men and it will not be easy for them but they do have more to play for and that could just about give them the edge, though it could still be too little too late.
Moving down again to League One, and I think I will stick with a similar scenario and back both Carlisle to beat Exeter at BETDAQ odds on 2.0 and Notts County to beat Wycombe Wanderers at BETDAQ odds of 2.5. Both have hopes of getting in to the play offs and both know that anything less than a win will make life close to impossible for them, so at least we know we are putting our money on players who will try their very best for the cause?
With nothing similar in Division Two that leads me neatly on to my horse racing selections and although I am personally successful midweek, I have been struggling at the weekends but hope to put that right at Sandown with their eight race card, mixed with hurdles, chases, flat racing, and even a jump jockeys v flat jockeys challenge to round off the card. The forecast heavy ground means sensible BETDAQ punters will bet more carefully than normal, and although I expect a few surprises, the question is can I predict which ones? Twice Over is a horse I love and he is officially the best horse by ten pounds upwards in the Gordon Richards Stakes at 3.45pm. A look back at his statistics shows me he has never raced on heavy ground, came third on his only start on soft ground, but has won on good to soft, so what do we read in to that? Personally, I read that although he may well win, he is unlikely to be a sensible price to do so and could be worth opposing with Hunter’s Light who is nowhere near as good but may be better suited by the conditions. Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor for Godolphin and with Frankie in the saddle, he won well at Goodwood on soft ground in a Listed race and if there is an upset, he could well be the one to provide it.
To end with, I made some new friends when I went to Newmarket last week who claimed to work in various yards, and they tell me that I need to be looking to take an early price about the chances of African Story in the BMW Mile in Hong Kong on May 6th. He won as he pleased on World Cup night in Dubai when last seen and would head to Sha Tin with a leading chance, and even more importantly, I hear a certain Silvestre De Sousa will be flying out to ride for Godolphin. He will not have things all his own way, as he would need to become the first “foreign” horse to take the prize since they were allowed to compete in 2005, but records are there to be broken and remember, you read it here first!
This week’s suggested bets (odds correct at the time of writing):
Snooker:
1pt RONNIE O’SULLIVAN to win World Championship 2012 at BETDAQ odds of 6.0
Football:
1pt Win MIDDLESBROUGH to beat Watford at BETDAQ odds of 2.6
1pt Win CARLISLE to beat Exeter at BETDAQ odds of 2.0
1pt Win NOTTS COUNTY to beat Wycombe Wanderers at BETDAQ odds of 2.5
Horse Racing:
1pt Win HUNTER’S LIGHT 3.45pm Sandown Saturday
1pt Win AFRICAN STORY BMW Mile Hong Kong, 6th May 2012 (take the best BETDAQ price as soon as they become available).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
