Sometimes you get things wrong and put your hands up, but on other occasions you can look back through your selections and still reach the same conclusions even when your selection ran an absolute stinker!
Last Saturday, I went looking for value in the Great St Wilfred Handicap at Ripon and came up with the Paul D’Arcy trained Edinburgh Knight, who we now know finished fourteenth of nineteen. Before the race I had worked out (guessed?) that the high numbers would have an advantage if the ground rode soft, and so it proved with the first three home drawn 17, 20, and 19, so where was my selection who came out of the 18 box? Having backed him on BETDAQ at 20.0 19.0, and again at 18.0 I thought I was sitting pretty, but he trailed in out with the washing, with his handler explaining to the Stewards that he failed to handle the track. Now I admit that I have never trained a racehorse (or even ridden one), but the four year old had already raced sixteen times, so is it really beyond connections to work out what sort of track suits him best – apparently so?
The beginning of the week started pretty quietly with the Jeremy Noseda trained Grandeur the only one I was interested in for the Brighton opener on Tuesday but I am not a pro punter betting in thousands and odd of 1.7 or so meant I was never going to get rich quick (which is still my aim). However he looked such a good thing after his debut run in a hot Goodwood maiden that I still had to have a bet and oblige he did, though not without scaring the life out of me as at one stage he failed to quicken up for a stride or two – or was that nerves lol?
Wednesday saw York kick off with a fanfare but I am beginning to worry I am getting a jockey fixation as I am convinced Richard Hills knows which of his horses I back? Once again I went in on Kanaf in the sprint, backing him with Betdaq (where else if you want the biggest prices?) at 11 to win and 2.85 (and 2.8) to place, though I admit the stakes were not that massive. Once again Richard Hills managed to get him hampered twice as he did last time out, and once again he finished out of the frame (by one position) despite looking as if he wasn’t exactly strongly ridden? He is clearly a winner waiting to happen though whether the handicapper will spot his bad luck and still put him up in the weights is another matter?
I did back Sea Moon having decided Seville was very much a “nearly” horse and at 6.8 I can hardly moan overall, and a profit was made on the day. Like all punters I wish I had more on every winner (and less on every loser) but a winner is always good and at the end of the day the books were very much balanced in my favour as I left Await The Dawn well alone at the prices he was trading at which were far too short for my tastes.
On Thursday my convenient memory struck again, and I forgot all about Kanaf and backed Richard Hills on board the Sir Michael Stoute trained Markazzi each way. You guessed it; he did it again, coming from way off the pace to snatch fifth, stopping riding out well before the line. Wallets do talk, and I freely admit my opinion is coloured by cash (or a lack of it), but when I have backed him at 10.5 and 10.0 to win (BETDAQ prices) and 3.2 to place, you can understand my annoyance? I will be watching carefully for any Stewards questions, as this seems to happen all too often (or is it just me), and I am as entitled as the rest to a fair run for my money.
On a more positive note we still have a couple of days of York to go as well as other quality meetings to look at, and my first bet this week will be on Lilbourne Lad who drops in class in the Gimcrack Stakes at 2.30. Connections were apparently a little disappointed he was only fourth at The Curragh last time out in the Phoenix Stakes, but he was only beaten a length and three quarters at the line and with the stable banging in an 11/1 two year old winner here yesterday there is every reason to think a repeat is more than possible and I have been taking all the 4.4 I can get on Betdaq overnight.
On Saturday I have a couple of “away” bets worth looking at while everyone else concentrates on the Knavesmire. At Sandown the 3.25 is an intriguing Listed race where I will watch Reem with interest, as I suspect her last run was to put her straight for this afternoon. She is decent but I was looking at an each way bet on Theysken’s Theory who was so impressive back in May until I noticed Martin Dwyer was riding Brevity. I assume, rightly or wrongly, that he would have had the choice in which case an each way bet on this filly may pay huge dividends as she looks to step up to a mile after winning a similar quality contest over six furlongs as a juvenile, and she really could be a bit of a surprise package on the best of her form
At Bath Saturday evening it is unusual to see Andrew Balding send a maiden straight in to a novice stakes but Top Cop does exactly that in the 6.10 with Jimmy Fortune in the saddle. He was very well supported on his debut at Salisbury over six furlongs when he faded close home but with that run under his belt and a drop back to the minimum trip today he could surprise the previous winners presumably headed by Quite A Thing.
Summary of this week’s bets:
2pts Win LILBOURNE LAD 2.30 York Friday
1pt Win 1pt place BREVITY 3.20 Sandown Saturday
3pts Win TOP COP 6.10 Bath Saturday
