Not a bad week for the old BETDAQ account last week (and some would say about time too) with two out of three winning football bets, a non runner on the gee gees, and a nice bet still running at BETDAQ odds of 6.0 on Ronnie O’Sullivan for the World Snooker Championship 2012 – happy days! Personally, I am looking at laying the snooker bet back off at odds of 1.69 on BETDAQ as I write for a guaranteed profit – you just have to love BETDAQ with money guaranteed when you get it right.
Naturally, as a devout punter the bets I wrote about were not the only ones I had, some winning, some losing, and some just down right annoying! I was particularly careful with my racing bets as the ground was more like a ploughed field than an immaculate racetrack and outsiders winning were the only certainty of the day. Sure enough, the likes of War Poet (BETDAQ 30.9), did shock the punters but overall you are a clever bunch and there were more favourites scoring than on a week day, though naturally I failed to back any of them. One horse I did back (and yes, I had a decent stake down as well) was the Paul Nicholls trained Sanctuaire, a novice chaser thrown in at the deep end at Sandown by Paul Nicholls, when he could have had any number of other entries.
I took that as a massive hint from someone who knows a lot more than me (I scrap around for whatever clues I can get wherever I can find them), and for once I had it right. I felt that the 7.8 on BETDAQ was too good to be true and I obviously wasn’t the only one as he was backed and then backed again until going off at something near the 6.0 mark, and romping home by a long looking seventeen lengths having made all the running. I admit that being a pessimist, and remembering he is only a novice, I half expected him to make a hash of one of the fences somewhere sometime but he didn’t let me down and I collected a tidy sum, which I fully intended to keep for later. Being a punter though that was never going to happen and the bells went off in my head telling me to back Quel Esprit in the Punchestown Gold Cup, and as the eight year old had won his last three races and impressively, even the 3.0 on BETDAQ looked worth snapping up. Any bright idea I ever have seems doomed to failure and so it proved as he trailed in a well-beaten third, though I can console myself with the fact that he never traded at a low enough price for me to get out in front, which I did consider.
On the football I did stick to the bets I mentioned (though not to level stakes), and came out well up on the day though I did lose a little of that back on Monday night by backing the Manchester derby to be a draw at BETDAQ odds of 3.4 which seemed too generous to ignore.
This weekend looks like it good be pretty busy with the FA Cup Final to watch as well as the small matter of the first two Classics from Newmarket (the 1000 Guineas and 2000 Guineas), World Snooker, a close to full football fixture list, and even golf from North Carolina, more than enough to keep me busy on BETDAQ and away from the garden – if I can get away with it of course. Soft ground at Newmarket is, in my opinion, a bit of a shame and I can foresee an upset in both the mile classics if the ground fails to dry out as seems likely. Knowing me I will have a small bet on the day but the actual plan is to ignore both classics and have a bet on Dunaden in the Jockey Club Stakes at 2.30pm. I am not a trainer but you have to be impressed with the way Mikel Delzangles has improved this six year old from a Group three and Listed winner in France to the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase winner, both incredibly valuable Group One contests. He stays a lot further than this mile and a half he faces here and that stamina could be a serious bonus on this ground, while he has also won on very soft ground at Cagnes-Sur-Mer, so we know that will not be a problem. Fellow Frenchman Meandre is the highest rated horse in the race while St Leger winner masked Marvel could be the one to chase him home but I just get the feeling he will have too much class for them and is the one I would want to back rather than lay today!
Moving on, we have our snooker bet (either left running or cashed in) so no need to go in again, leading me on to football and my weekly BETDAQ coupon! Saturday sees the FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Liverpool, and as an Everton fan see if you can guess who I want to win? The fact is there is very little value in the markets I normally play in, so I am almost forced in to a point on a Chelsea half time and full time bet at BETDAQ odds of 4.5, which seems pretty generous. My other football bets are on Sunday and Monday (so at least we get plenty of BETDAQ action over the long weekend), and Newcastle to win at home to Manchester City looks overpriced at 5.4 with BETDAQ to me? I am quite aware this is a must win game for Manchester City if they want to win the title but I am equally aware that what used to be called St James Park is as hostile an away ground as any and with fourth place up for grabs the home team will not be allowed to sit back and take life easily – not a good thing I agree, but value for money and that is always my target.
Finally, and to hopefully wrap up another profitable weekend, Wigan look overpriced at 3.0 to win at Blackburn on Monday night. Although it took them three quarters of the season to get out of first gear, their football lately has been well worth watching and more importantly, they have rediscovered the ability to win matches as seen with victories against Newcastle Arsenal and Manchester United in the last month or so. In my eyes that is far better form than Blackburn can boast of late and in a relegation six pointer (I know it’s a cliché but in this case it is more accurate than normal), I can only see one winner and cannot for the life of me work out why they are not favourites here?
This week’s suggested bets (odds correct at the time of writing):
Football:
1pt Win NEWCASTLE to beat Manchester City Sunday at BETDAQ odds of 5.4
1pt Win WIGAN to beat Blackburn Monday evening at BETDAQ odds of 3.0
Horse Racing:
2pts Win DUNADEN 2.30pm Newmarket Saturday
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