Wanted – drawing board to go back to, must be hardly used! Yep, last week I had a titanic of a list of bets and I am rapidly drawing the conclusion that the more I listen to others the less profit I actually make – which is not the idea in my book I assure you!
The Internet and all its pages has been my way forward for a while now but being inherently lazy (aren’t we all deep down?), I switched from information gathering and drawing my own conclusions, to “borrowing” others tips and telling you all about them here (not always but sometimes). All the Newmarket gallops reports about Mocenigo sounded good but I have to admit that when I saw she was a 17.0 or bigger shot on BETDAQ the alarm bells started ringing! Money talks in this game more than anywhere else (perhaps Greyhound Racing runs it close), and she was clearly unfancied so at least it was a small bet that disappeared in a puff of smoke and not a much larger one as originally intended! Trying to be clever (yes I know), I left the horses alone for the weekend with the exception of Danedream in the big race from Germany (Baden-Baden) Sunday when the BETDAQ odds of 1.85 were the nearest I have seen to a licence to print money for many a year. She had seen off Nathaniel at Ascot last time out in a race so much better than this that she looked a shoe in to me, and so it proved all be it by an easy half a length, and with Frankel staying at home, who can stop her doubling up with a second Arc? To be fair, she was my only winning bet all weekend with a second in the Belgian Grand Prix (might as well have been last though), and football doing just about the very opposite of what I hoped or expected. I almost knew that tipping Everton would jinx them and so it ended up, but Fulham were embarrassing as well so I am not alone, as were Swansea and even Newcastle – not my weekend and that is the polite version!
Moving swiftly on (no use crying over spilt milk and so on), we don’t have any Premiership action this weekend for me to get wrong, so we need to look at the Internationals if we want to have a bet on the footie. Luckily for me there are a million options (well, 36 matches Friday and Saturday alone), but I am blissfully aware there will be shocks and frantically looking to see which ones to avoid in a little accumulator. Patriotic as I am, England away at odds of 1.35 just do not appeal as any value (and I am not willing to jinx them either), so that’s one crossed off the list of possibles so we will start with something a bit more obscure perhaps? Trying to be a smarty pants I am running all my bets via the FIFA website of world rankings and will have a couple of four folds based on the teams with the biggest advantage over their opponents or those closest matched (and you thought no logic went in to this).
With the odds almost secondary (better they win regardless), I will start with France to win away to Finland. A massive 81 places separates the two of them so even home advantage seems unlikely to be enough, and if they can stop the infighting they have some amazing players making even the 1.6 on BETDAQ pretty generous. Next up I will add Russia who ought to be way too strong at home for gutsy Northern Ireland who have such a small pool of players to pick from. Add a 116 place gap (13 to 129 in case you wondered), and the BETDAQ offer of 1.3 needs to be added to the pot of our little accumulator. Kazakhstan actually got through the spellchecker but they ought to be beaten despite home advantage by the well liked Republic Of Ireland even though their rebuilding project yet to reach completion. They frankly have too many possible match winners and 116 places on their side so the 1.85 seems a give away to me? Lastly, but not leastly, I will add in Norway who play In Iceland but for some reason are priced at 2.35 on my beloved BETDAQ? Facts are that Norway are ranked 34 in the World and Iceland 118, so I can see no reason why the price is so out of sync with all the others and as that looks the best value, we may was well throw them in to the mix for a small stake four team accumulator.
For a silly bet I noticed quite a few games looked closely matched so why not throw four of them together for four very small stake trebles on the draw? Putting the rankings in brackets (to save sending you to sleep) I suggest Solomon Islands (153) v Tahiti (119), Georgia (86) v Belarus (76), Estonia (55) v Romania (57), and Montenegro (48) v Poland (56), at respective odds of 3.9, 3.5, 3.5, and 3.4 – and for once my bets are based on logic.
Moving along to the racing now and a lot less logic I suppose – this week’s selections are based on what I have read and not what I know! Haydock put on the best racing this Saturday with two Listed races and a Group One on the card though finding a winner is never as easy as I hope. One trainer not hiding his light under a bushel is Richard Hannon who seems pretty keen on the chances of Strong Suit in the big sprint due off at 3.25pm and part of the massively hyped British Champions Series. Aussie raider Ortensia is a worthy favourite after her wins at Goodwood and York but at 8.5 my selection looks like an each way bet to nothing granted no traffic problems and as he is said to be bucking and kicking at home and never better, he may finally be able to recapture his best form which included a four and a half length thrashing of the consistent Chachamaidee, and that would give him every chance on Saturday afternoon.
Other than that I am off to Gloucester to see Jimmy White and Ronnie O’Sullivan etc., which should be fun – and I may be back next week with an ante post bet for the World Snooker Championships, you never know your luck!
This week’s suggested bets (odds correct at the time of writing):
Football
Friday evening: 1pt Four team accumulator: FRANCE (1.6 BETDAQ odds), RUSSIA (1.3 BETDAQ odds), REPUBLIC OF IRELAND (1.85 BETDAQ), and NORWAY (2.35 BETDAQ)
4 x quarter point win trebles all draws: SOLOMON ISLANDS V TAHITI (3.9), GEORGIA V BELARUS (3.5), ESTONIA V ROMANIA (3.5) and MONTENEGRO V POILAND (3.4).
Horse Racing
1pt Win 1pt Place STRONG SUIT 3.25pm Haydock Saturday at BETDAQ odds of 8.5 to Win and 2.9 the place.
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