Before I head off to my diary style efforts and my excuses for all those losers (other than plain stupidity), a brief word to celebrate the retirement of a certain Kauto Star, one of the best chasers of many a year if not my lifetime. Others will wax lyrical so all I will add is that he won four races over hurdles, nineteen over fences (including five King George VI Chases at Kempton and two Cheltenham Gold Cups), as well as over two and a quarter million pounds in prize money, so I am just glad he is off to play in one piece – he certainly cannot owe his owners a penny with a career record like that!
Other than that, not one of my better weeks I am sorry to admit (I am human after all, whatever others say), and who else (other than a fanatical Kilmarnock fan) would have guessed that 1.25 chance Celtic would be beaten 0-2 by the outsider, and be the only one of six teams to let me down – not me, obviously! Add a 0-0 and a 1-2 in my draw double, and a second with my only horse racing selection and we really had a case of “close but no cigar”, just to put me firmly in my place!
Luckily I was not brought up to be a quitter and I am convinced they were not losses to the BETDAQ layers, merely short term loans, and this week we can land another accumulator (well, maybe). As for the rest of the weekend, I have been following a football system (I can’t give out details in case they call their lawyers), and up to now it’s been pretty mediocre. After a loss of 46 times your stake in one weekend I was feeling pretty smug that I was only paper trading and yet to commit any real money, until one result predicted paid out a massive 525.0 on BETDAQ (500/1 best price elsewhere), and now I feel like kicking myself (or someone else!) – a couple of pounds at that sort of price would have been very nice thank you very much, but then that is called being wise after the event.
Someone somewhere knew something on Tuesday afternoon and as I had been told to look out for an unraced two-year-old called Mutashaded, trained in Newmarket by Roger Varian. Hanging around racetracks with an I-Pad can have advantages if only to help a stable lad look up the latest football scores between races, and I have made a few “contacts” that way, though I am yet to make my fortune as you can probably guess? After getting on early at BETDAQ odds of 7.2 to small stakes I was shocked to see him punted in to a starting price of 9/4 (some 3.5 on BETDAQ), so the money was clearly down and in spades as well. He won comfortably but you guessed it, I had already laid my bet off at 4.5 when the odds were tumbling, and although I made a profit, I am too greedy and annoyed with myself (again).
Looking ahead (no point in dwelling on the past), I need to be brave enough to have another go at the old football accumulator, after all, we have had a couple come in recently and ought to be up overall to level stakes? Yes, one can and invariably does go wrong but the only way is up, and in we go again starting with Chelsea at 2.0 on BETDAQ, which seems good enough value away to Swansea. Many felt they were unlucky against Manchester United, and much as I like the Welsh team, they aren’t really in that sort of class. I also have a soft spot for Wigan but cannot see them coming away with anything from White Hart Lane with Spurs in imperious form of late, and even the best odds of 1.5 on BETDAQ seem worthy of inclusion. Birmingham are not the success I expected in the Championship but should still be too good for lowly Ipswich at odds of 2.0 and can just about join my line up, as can Nottingham Forest who are on a roll this season and look nailed on at 2.0 to see off Millwall, fans and all. As that adds up to a 12.0 accumulator, I see no need to add to the risk with anything from Scotland (after last week), and will settle for the four selections at those prices.
Risk is something that needs to be embraced on occasions if you want to make a profit and I think that at least two of the Premiership games are overpriced in the circumstances. That does NOT mean the team will win but it does (in my eyes) mean a spot of value and for the sake of a point each, I just can’t resist. West Ham United sit proudly in ninth place despite losing last weekend to Wigan, a blip they will hope to get over and in double quick time. Manchester City were probably not the visitors they wanted to get back on the wining trail, but the home team are hard to beat and at 5.5 I just cannot resist. I make no secret that I am an Evertonian through and through so I have an in built bias against Liverpool but even then, the odds of 7.2 on BETDAQ for Newcastle to win at Anfield is not beyond the realms of possibility. Statistics show the Toffees outplayed their rivals last weekend despite the final 2-2 scoreline and I am yet to be convinced they are over their early season problems in which case, an early goal from the barcodes could rattle their cage and those odds are just too tempting for a greedy blue like myself.
Other sports that I have a clue about are thin on the ground this weekend, with Vettel to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix high on my list, but at odds on (all be it only slightly), I cannot be tempted as we all know how easily things can go wrong with our own cars, let alone anything as technical as theirs.
Horse racing centres on the good old U S of A this weekend with the Breeders’ Cup (they call it the World Thoroughbred Championships but then they would), though once again we are getting all exited about European chances only to end up with a bloody nose like we do most years. As the Americans reduce the drugs allowed our chances should increase in theory, though which of the many challengers are most likely to give us a good run for our money? Starspangledbanner was a class act who would perhaps eat these alive at his peak, but that was a while ago now, so am I clutching at straws or have I found a value bet worth having? 14.0 the win and 3.8 the place is just too tempting and I am duty bound to have half a point each way and hope for the best.
Excelebration has his last race before retiring to stud as far as I know and it is difficult to see how he can lose the Mile. Moonlight Cloud would be my only fear to be honest assuming everyone runs to form, and I may even be tempted in to the forecast.
This week’s suggested bets (odds correct at the time of writing):
Weekend Football
1pt Win accumulator: Chelsea (2.0 BETDAQ price), Tottenham Hotspur (1.5 BETDAQ), Birmingham (2.0 BETDAQ), and Nottingham Forest (2.0 BETDAQ), for a 12.0 accumulator.
1pt win West Ham to beat Manchester City at BETDAQ odds of 5.5
1pt Win Newcastle United to beat Liverpool at BETDAQ odds of 7.2
Horse racing Saturday
Half point Win at 14.0 BETDAQ Half point Place at 3.8 BETDAQ Starspangledbanner 8.57pm (Breeders’ Cup)
1pt Win Excelebration at 2.6 BETDAQ 11.40pm (Breeders’ Cup)
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