THE BETDAQ PUNTER returns with his usual mix of looking back on his betting week on BETDAQ and looking forward to this weekend.
His bets this weekend include the final day of the Cheltenham Festival today.
Elsewhere he has recommended bets on the football and Six Nations.
Now, how did the last seven days fare?
Friday
I am like a kid in a sweetshop at this time of year as we count down to Cheltenham and today is no exception. Only a few days to go now so my temptation is to have a bet on the horses today as “practice”, so a short priced treble on three Paul Nicholls trained jollies was all I could come up with. You guessed it, two of them won (Gwanako 1.25 and Merrion Square 2.86 on BETDAQ), but Valco De Touzaine (2.6) let me down so that was that – again! Naturally, I also had a bet on the French football as is my Friday night habit (others order take aways), and with odds of 2.8 the home team (Rennes) and 2.7 the away team (St Etienne), it seemed obvious that there was little to choose between the two teams. After backing the draw on BETDAQ at odds of 3.4 I sat back and watched as four quick goals saw a 2-2 draw and although I confess I was looking to lay it back at a profit, it all happened so fast the chance eluded me which ended up a master stroke even if it wasn’t planned.
Saturday
Least said soonest mended – what an appalling day for me both personally and financially. Lunchtime saw me backing Everton at odds of 1.5 and 1.55 to see off Wigan at Goodison Park before sitting down with a cold beer to watch the expected thrashing. Sadly for me, in a four minute spell that felt like a lifetime Wigan scored three well taken goals and put my bet and me in to shock – lets face it, a lousy day at the office. If there was an upside it was that I forgot to put my rugby bets on and saved a few pounds there, as I would never have had Ireland and France down as a draw!
Sunday
Time to look around for a few silly bets this Sunday away from my safety net (ha ha) of Football and horse racing. South Africa landed the odds of 1.62 on BETDAQ by beating Pakistan in the one day so that was a small bet landed on the cricket, and I did have a look at the tennis as well – but even I cant be tempted by the 1.04 on BETDAQ for Andy Murray in a sport I don’t really understand, so a quiet day seems sensible, drawing breath ahead of the racing next week.
Monday
The day before the racing party is always a long one – even though I know full well I wont make a profit it is still the best race meeting in the world bar none – class from start to finish. Today is a non-event in racing terms but I have the bug and can’t resist a little on those horses out and about from the top two trainers – Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls. That ended up with a short list of three horses but what a let down – all short prices (1.2, 1.75, and 3.9), so at least I only lost a single point on a win treble with one winner and two losers, lets just hope this is not a sign of things to come.
Tuesday
Cheltenham is here at last, and after an early morning weather scare and an inspection, it went ahead all be it minus the cross-country chase and half an hour later than originally scheduled. My day started badly as My Tent Or Yours cruised up to Champagne Fever looking as if it was a question of how far not if – before failing to get past and only managing a disappointing second at BETDAQ odds of 3.05, so not worth backing each way. Like an idiot I also backed Our Mick to win as he finished a gallant, if well beaten, runner up at BETDAQ odds of 8.0 –was this a sign of things to come. One small win treble did come off on the obvious ones with Simonsig (1.75), Hurricane Fly (I got 3.6), and Quevega (1.85), but you can already guess I didn’t have enough on to cover my losses on the football earlier in the week.
Wednesday
A fresh start and pretty fresh weather too but that never stops the crowds at Cheltenham and as usual, it was a sell out. The atmosphere looked amazing and I am going tomorrow so fingers crossed it isn’t raining or snowing or whatever? Buddy Bolero (8.5 the win and 2.9 the place on BETDAQ) did what all good each way bets do and finished fourth in the opener so nothing back there, while I couldn’t make my mind up between Irish “banker” Pont Alexandre and The New One so I risked the forecast only to see them finish first and third – one of those days or one of those meetings? I soon answered my own question with an each way bet on Unioniste (who also finished fourth which is somehow worse than stone cold last?), while even I couldn’t afford top back Sprinter Sacre though he did land the odds in sublime style and could be the best chaser I have ever seen. I did note the drop in the weights of Fiveforthree but failed to remember to avail myself of the 30.0 available early doors each way which just about summed up my day – tomorrow is the big one though, I-Phone and tablet are both at the ready to go to war with the BETDAQ layers live from the track!
Thursday
An early start in the freezing cold hardly put me in the best of moods and nor did the traffic chaos as I got nearer to the track but once you step put on to the course and witness a sea of racing fans it seriously takes your breath away. My rule for the day was a small each way bet in every race but with winners at odds of 28.0 and then 32.0 surprise surprise, I wasn’t on them. Mine finished second (Dynaste) and nineteenth (Close House) though the bar is still open so it isn’t all bad. Naturally, I am eavesdropping and everyone seems to think Riverside Theatre is rock solid each way, so I up my stakes at 8.5 the win on BETDAQ, back him each way, and see him finish a running on fourth when they only pay out on the first three – curses! The World Hurdle is next and I have to get to the fence for a good viewpoint (tablet in hand) – how else could I possibly place a bet on BETDAQ?), and put my money where my mouth is via Peddlers Cross and Solwhit (14.2 and 10.5 respectively on BETDAQ), and while one went out like a light, the other showed previously unknown stamina and took the race. He is no Big Bucks’ but I will take any winner or place I can find right now so well done to connections. Naturally, it wasn’t all champagne and roses (or even Guinness and pie) as Hunt Ball landed the place part of my each way bet at 2.7 when fourth to shock winner Carrickboy (80.0 when I looked), and good luck if you found that one. Super Duty also landed a place when touched off in the next at 6.8 the win and 2.2 (which didn’t make me rich though), leaving me one more race when they put on the rescheduled Cross Country Chase. You guessed it – I backed Sizing Australia each way at BETDAQ odds of 18.5 the win and 3.8 the place only to see him finish fifth, one spot out of the placings – you just couldn’t make it up if you tried!
Conclusions:
Bet of the week – a Simonsig/Hurricane Run/ Quevega treble on the first day of the Festival, which seems so long ago!
Disaster of the week – Disaster of the week – Everton losing to Wigan – a bet lost, a semi final chance lost, and another season without a trophy.
Something for the weekend:
There will still be one day left at Cheltenham when this goes on line so I simply have to add a bet or two to my portfolio of losers. Reading everything I can find it appears Paul Nicholls works Far West with Champion Hurdle fourth Zarkandar and if that is accurate then surely the Triumph Hurdle is his for the taking? Odds of 4.9 on BETDAQ are less than I hoped but the layers seem to read the same material as me and that is what I will have to take if necessary. The Albert Bartlett hurdle at 2.40pm looks fascinating with so many class horses in the mix and (obviously) just the one winner. O’Faolains Boy could run a big race but it seems Nigel Twiston-Davies thinks a lot of African Gold so a small each way bet at a massive price may pay dividends? 8.0 the win is on BETDAQ as I write so I will guess at 2.8 the place so an each way bet it is then, though that will do me for the Festival. On Saturday, flat racing almost kick-starts with the Winter Derby from Lingfield. A Group Three race over a mile and a quarter, it looks too tight to call at this stage though there is every possibility that Farraaj has the most room for improvement this season.
As for the football, can I stop sulking long enough to find a winner? Not a lot leaps off the page in the top division to be honest (or is that just sour grapes?), other than the glaringly obvious so how about a short priced treble on Chelsea to beat West Ham Sunday (1.45 BETDAQ), Manchester United to beat Reading Saturday (1.2 BETDAQ), and Tottenham to beat Fulham Sunday (1.6 BETDAQ) – surely even I cant be far wrong with that as a 2.78 treble? Add a similar thing in the Championship with Blackpool to beat Peterborough (2.0 BETDAQ), Hull to beat Nottingham Forest (2.2 BETDAQ), and Middlesbrough to beat Birmingham (2.3 BETDAQ), for another treble and that will do me for this week.
Rugby rounds things off (well, more oval things off I suppose?) but might not be quite as simple as it looks at first glance. Ireland (1.45 on BETDAQ) should beat Italy, and France (1.25 on BETDAQ) should beat Scotland, but whether England should be odds on in Wales I am not so sure? They were not that impressive in their last game (apparently), but the odds makers rarely get it wrong, but I am only willing to risk a point on a favourites treble at odds of 2.0?
This week’s suggested bets (all prices with BETDAQ and correct at the time of writing):
Horse racing
2pts Win Far West 1.30pm Cheltenham Friday
Half point each way African Gold 2.40pm Cheltenham Friday
Weekend Football
2pt Win Treble – Manchester United (1.2), Chelsea (1.45), and Tottenham (1.6).
1pt Win Treble – Blackpool (2.0), Hull (2.2), and Middlesbrough (2.3)
Rugby Union Six Nations
1pt Win Treble Ireland (1.45), France (1.25) and England (2.0).
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