THE BETDAQ PUNTER returns with his usual mix of looking back on his betting week on BETDAQ and looking forward to this weekend.
His bets this weekend include football bets for the World Cup qualifiers tonight and a bet at Doncaster tomorrow.
Doncaster must pass a 6am inspection.
Now, how did the last seven days fare?
Friday
This week I learnt a very expensive lesson – reading full stop doesn’t necessarily add to your knowledge, reading the correct material probably does! How smart I felt having researched the top trainers on the net and finding various interviews – no one told me they would struggle to find a winner between them! David Pipe (no Cheltenham winners) would be a prime example, having spent hours of my time reading page after page, ditto Donald McCain – next year I will read anything I can find about Willie Mullins if I remember by then that is! It really wasn’t my week as I backed Far West to win at BETDAQ odds of 6.2 in the morning (a well beaten second behind the very impressive Our Conor), and a win and place bet on Africa Gold (also second but at 5.8 the win and 2.2 the place), didn’t cover earlier losses by any stretch of any imagination. Add a decent sized bet at a very generous BETDAQ price of 5.8 on Silviniaco Conti who was going as well as any when falling three out to record his first ever fall in any outing over fences or hurdles – you just couldn’t make it up! My football bet was reduced for glaringly obvious reasons, which turned out to be a wise move, as I backed Marseille to win at home at BETDAQ odds of 1.55 before they bored me stiff with a 0-0 draw that saw me lose even more on the day!
Saturday
When Cheltenham ends, I (and millions of others), suffer withdrawal symptoms, with whatever action racings powers put on paling in to relative insignificance. Today we had Kempton over the jumps but as the flat season is sneaking up on us day by day, I decided to pop down to Lingfield in person, tablet tucked away under my jacket in the rain. It isn’t Royal Ascot but some of the better known trainers are waking from hibernation (or trips to the Caribbean I suspect), with Newmarket superstars Marco Botti, John Gosden, Clive Brittain Roger Varian, Ed Dunlop, and Peter Chapple-Hyam all having runners along with the already firing on all cylinders Richard Hannon. After failing to back Everton to beat Manchester City (what a mug I am becoming, 3.75 on BETDAQ for the home win and I let them go unbacked), I saw my football and rugby union bets go horribly wrong so had to rely on the old gee gees for any kind of return on the day. With my confidence at an all time low, favourite chasing seemed my only way forward, with limited stakes though as we all know that system can be a road to total disaster. Sticking with Lingfield (I don’t multi task!), I was rewarded in the opener when Wordiness scored at BETDAQ odds of 3.45 bringing a chink of sunlight in to my world at last, and with two other winning favourites (Farraaj 2.62 and Erodium 2.1 on BETDAQ), and some clever/lucky staking (a visit to the bar can induce errors on the tablet), I walked away in profit all be it not as much as I would have liked.
Sunday
For reasons unknown I never bet on the horses on a Sunday – nothing to do with religion, just that other than any classics and so on, the racing is so substandard that I can’t really be bothered! Football seemed the place to speculate (I used to like the word invest but lately that hasn’t been the case), and the two stand out bets looked so obvious that I could not resist. Tottenham at home to Fulham looked a sure fire good thing so in I went at BETDAQ odds of 1.6 thinking I was onto a sure fire winner. As an Everton fan I ought to be pleased they lost, but money can be more important than possibilities and I see that as one of the most shocking results of the season as it also managed to down my short priced treble as well. Wigan were a team I liked (until they knocked the Toffees out of the FA Cup), and they looked worthy of a bet at 2.3 on BETDAQ, which I felt was pretty generous. It took to the 90th minute to be sure as they finally won it 2-1 but as I could not lay my bet back at a profit I had no option but to let it ride for my first bit of decent luck for weeks.
Monday
No quality football to work on here or abroad that I could see or understand and the racing wasn’t all that. With the new flat season just around the corner I have started looking for in form yards and will be using the hot trainers table to see if that can help me add to the BETDAQ account? A quick look at the percentages showed me that Richard Hannon, Sean Curran (both jumps and flat), Kevin Ryan, and Marco Botti were all hitting the places with over 60% of their runners so surely there was money to be made following their yards this week? Naturally, this was the only day (well, hopefully that it didn’t work as I backed two Hannon horses on BETDAQ to place at odds of 2.8 (Same Spade) and 2.2 (Ortac Rock) who managed to crawl home in 5th and 9th respectively – but the others were a better story! Sean Curran banged in three winners (yep, I backed them to place!) at BETDAQ odds of 2.0 (1.27 the place) 2.6 (1.35), and 19.0 (5.1), Marco didn’t have a runner, and Kevin Ryan had a 6.9 winner (2.5) and a second (2.1) so job done big time and I may be on to something though we need a few more examples before drawing any conclusions)?
Tuesday
Horses in the afternoon and football in the evening – what more can any one ask for? Sticking to my trainers in form concept and there were three bets in total and amazingly they all placed with BETDAQ odds of 6.8, 2.2, and 1.8 – all good news but can it continue? Flush with my success I had a home team Lucky 15 on the English First Division, purely because there were only the four games lol, and amazingly more money rolled in – why not at weekends? Bury beat Stevenage at BETDAQ odds of 2.6, Crewe beat Milton Keynes Dons at 3.35, and Oldham tanked Hartlepool 3-0 at 1.9 for a profit of about 18 points, but all I can think about is the extra 100 points I would have made had Yeovil beaten Swindon.
Wednesday
A bit of a dull day but sometimes you need to be disciplined – something I am naturally appalling at! Only tow horses hit the qualifiers list – the Sean Curran trained Highway Warrior and Richard Hannon’s Endorsing, both outsiders so my expectations were severely reduced. With odds of 29.0 and 16.5 on BETDAQ accordingly (to win), I left the bets as place only and will regret it for at last a week after one loser (8th) and a winner with my bets place at odds of 7.5 and 3.9 – profit made but it could have ben so much more, though I am already working out what to do tomorrow?
Thursday
No need to try and re invent the wheel and as I may be on to something with the horses (and there is no French football to intrigue me), I will carry on where I left off yesterday. Four horses included two in the one race (typical). So I stuck to backing them all to place for now and watched the first finish out of the money at odds of 1.5 the place on BETDAQ so not the best of starts. However, the next two came first and second in their races (so two places) at odds of 1.6 and 1.27 so it is working over all, and now I am left with one to go! Last race at Kempton saw Edgeware Road sent off at 17.5 on BETDAQ before finishing out with the washing, so not a profitable day overall – though I do feel there is something in this and will continue next week if that’s OK?
Conclusions:
Bet of the week – three out of four in a guesswork bet on the football Tuesday – could have been better but for a joke bet, ultra rewarding!
Disaster of the week – Weekend Football, Rugby, Cheltenham – you name it, I lost on it !
Something for the weekend:
Having rumbled on about my new look top trainer idea (which will be refined if it carries on at this rate), it would be remiss of me not to include any qualifiers here. A quick look through the declarations shows me there are loads of runners for me to follow, so watch this space for a list of results – I am not quite brave enough to suggest you all back them just yet thank you very much! If Doncaster does go ahead (the snow is allegedly heading that way as I write), then I am quite sweet on the chances of Space Ship in the Doncaster maiden at 1.30pm. Trained by John Gosden in Newmarket, he is a son of Galileo, which to me means he should be much better as a three year old, and with this mile and a quarter almost the barest minimum he can improve past his rival assuming race fitness, of course?
As for the football, Internationals mean even I can’t get the Premiership results wrong this weekend, though finding any value looks as difficult as ever as the shrewd BETDAQ layers determined to give nothing away! England aren’t worth bothering with from a punting perspective to be honest at odds of 1.01 to win lol, but there are some others who look like good things at slightly better prices so an accumulator it is. Friday evening I will include Algeria (1.4) to see off Benin, Burkina Faso at 1.5 to beat Niger, Cameroon (1.55) to beat Togo, Ghana (1.25) to beat Sudan, Nigeria (1.35) to thrash Kenya, and South Africa to see off the Central African Republic at odds of 1.55 for a nice 8.51 accumulator from the 5.00pm kick offs – all prices with BETDAQ of course (best prices, most profits which is what I need on the rare occasion things go right).
As for the evening, one treble seems worth a go with Chile possibly overpriced to win in Peru at BETDAQ odds of 2.85, Uruguay good value even at 1.7, and Russia a giveaway at odds of 1.55 to win in Northern Ireland – job done!
This week’s suggested bets (all prices with BETDAQ and correct at the time of writing):
Horse racing
2pts Win Space Ship 1.30pm Doncaster Saturday
Weekend Football
Friday night accumulator:
1pt Win accumulator: Algeria (1.4) Burkina Faso (1.5), Cameroon (1.55), Ghana (1.25), Nigeria (1.35), and South Africa 1.55 for a nice 8.51 accumulator
1pt Win treble Chile (2.85), Uruguay (1.7), and Russia (1.55).
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