THE BETDAQ PUNTER returns with his usual mix of looking back on the highs and lows of his betting week on BETDAQ and looking forward to this weekend.
Now for this weekend with a bet on the horses and the football.
But first, how did last week fare?
He started by trusting his old ‘system’.
(… and he’s not happy with Liverpool FC)
Friday
Not the most inspiring of days from a punting perspective, but there is always something to bet on if you look hard enough, and I reverted back to my favourite following system in handicaps, stopping at a winner and staking to get back any previous losses. Three losers and a 2.1 winner let me break even on the day (well, I made a few pennies!), but the stakes were getting too large too quickly and I may have to look for another way of having a bit of fun with a lower risk factor. The French football was next on my agenda (they have one match from their top division most Friday evenings), but I got it wrong this time, assuming the layers knew more than anyone else and backing St Etienne to win at BETDAQ odds of 1.99, only to sit though one of the most tedious 0-0 draws I have ever seen! One shot on goal each was all they could manage which tells its own story, but to lose my stake money as well was just rubbing salt in to the wound.
Saturday
I have said a million times I am an Everton supporter so who let me down for my football treble on Saturday- yep, Liverpool, our rivals across the park failed to score against Reading and cost me cold hard cash which just isn’t as funny as it reads. A look at the stats on the old BBC makes me feel even worse with an amazing 26 shots on target failing to reward the away team – just one of those days all round I suppose? My main bet on the horses was a much worse price than I had hoped for in advance (the BETDAQ layers never miss a thing!), but I managed to get a little on at 2.1 only to see Lewisham beaten a nose at the line, getting caught late on and beaten on the nod. I thought he was better than that and the fact is, he isn’t, but a little bit of wound licking now and tomorrow is still another day.
Sunday
A very different day today as I headed off to Hove for a day at the greyhounds – not my normal sport of choice but a good laugh nonetheless though I cannot pretend to have a clue what I am doing. A friend of mine who needs to remain nameless stressed how important the times and weights of the dogs are but that was way too complicated for me so I went off (you guessed it) favourite backing, between trips to the bar. Four winners later via my tablet (why would I want the shorter prices offered by the on course bookmakers?), I was down despite winners at BETDAQ prices of 3.2, 2.6, 2.9, and 3.35 though I was well ahead of my “expert” friend and cared considerably less.
Monday
A very quiet day on all fronts (sort of replacing my busier than normal Sunday I suppose?), so back to the old favourites to stave off the boredom of work and keep the wolf from the door. Amusingly, after betting in every race in the United Kingdom, a total of 22 races no less, I made the tiniest of profits after winners on BETDAQ (all better than SP by the way) at 4.2, 5.8, 3.4, 3.0, 4.6, and 2.1, a total of 1.1 points profit, a return on investment of 5% in an afternoon but a lot of work for very little lol!
Tuesday
Sometimes I get confused at this time of year because I naively thought we were at the beginning of the flat season yet all we had were two jumps meetings and one on the all-weather. As a sort of pathetic protest I left them all alone and concentrated on other sports instead, with Euroleague basketball next on my list. I was pleasantly surprised just how strong the markets were (not the tenner in there that I expected lol), and as a football fan how could I fail to back both Real Madrid and Barcelona, both outsiders on the day? After taking a little of the 2.35 about Real and 2.15 about Barca I was pleased enough to get one winner out of the two (and at the bigger price), and it may not have been much in the way of profit, but anything is better than nothing.
Wednesday
Well the big news this morning was the surprise retirement of Aussie superstar Black Caviar, though as a punter I was never going to get rich backing her, with her last win at odds of 1/7 which follows a long list of odds on victories, not really the sort of odds for normal punters like you and I! Still, with her record and rumours of a romantic liaison with a certain Frankel, we can await her progeny with interest, though I expect that yet again, it will simply prove that breeding is a very inexact science! As for me, well I have been reading all sorts about the William Haggas yard this morning with numerous interviews around and it seems as if he likes Lady Nouf so I am having a bet on her at Newmarket this afternoon at BETDAQ odds of 9.6 the win and 3.2 the place, a little each way was certainly in order – though having seen the race I wish I hadn’t bothered!!! In the football I had to have an odds on treble with Manchester City (1.28) Manchester United (1.71), and Chelsea (1.78) all expected to win by the BETDAQ layers – but what do they know after a Hammers draw put pay to my high expectations, nothing seems to go to plan lol?
Thursday
Newmarket again today and as I haven’t had enough time to work on my “trainers in form” ideas, I may as well revert back to old habits and back the trainers I have read about in recent days (there is so much on the net these days that even I can’t digest it all). I assume that deep down I have some kind of masochistic tendencies, as I love having a bet in the Wood Ditton each season despite the fact that we are talking about a field of unraced three year olds! Last year the race was won by Mukhadram for William Haggas, but there is no real pattern except (surprise surprise), nine of the last ten winners were trained in Newmarket. Sadly, that only cuts it down to nine runners this year, so which one to pin my hopes/waste my money on I wonder? I may be proved wrong but I cannot believe that Sir Michael Stoute can continue the poor run of recent seasons and I hope he is in for a far better year in which case a small bet on Mutajally will do for me, with Paul Hanagan opting to ride him ahead of other options for his retaining owner. Fifth of eight was promising I suppose but zero returns for me though he is now in my notebook for future reference.
Conclusions:
Bet of the week – It was that bad that a small bet on Real Madrid in the basketball was about as good as it got this week.
Disaster of the week – How poetic that Liverpool let me down for a win treble with the other two winning by a couple of clear goals….
Something for the weekend:
Newbury take over where Newmarket leave off as far as flat racing fans are concerned with the Fred Darling and Greenham Stakes sorting out at least part of the Guineas puzzle, though we mustn’t forget the jumpers at Ayr with the Scottish National and Scottish Champion Hurdle on the agenda (though I won’t be betting on them personally). Once again too much reading leaves me with little choice but to back the William Haggas trained Rosdhu Queen, though the way his other “star filly” ran on Wednesday is enough to at least reduce my bet size. She is unbeaten and she does go again when they come to her, but whether she gets this seven furlongs (let alone a mile at Newmarket) seems very much open to question, though only one way to find out I suppose? As for the Greenham, if there is sufficient cut I will be on Olympic Glory who it seems has improved from two to three, and is underrated in comparison to his ability – according to Richard Hannon Junior anyway, and he should know. He will apparently head for the Curragh instead of Newmarket to look for give underfoot but should win this first if he is as good as they think, though again, a point will do for me as I have started to refuse to trust everything I read.
Football is often the second part (or even first) of my betting agenda at the weekend and this week is no exception, though I may have to start supporting an Australian side or something for when this season is over? Before then we need to add to recent profits and at this time of year I am tempted to focus my attentions on teams with plenty to win or lose as opposed to mid table mediocrity. This week that seems to point to Chelsea to win at Liverpool at BETDAQ odds of 3.65 with a top four place absolutely imperative for the London side and no guarantees if they go on a losing run. In the First Division two bets stand out and I will have a one point double – Sheffield United (1.9) and Brentford (1.95) both need to win to keep up their promotion hopes, and I see no reason why they won’t both oblige?
This week’s suggested bets (all prices with BETDAQ and correct at the time of writing):
Horse racing Saturday
1pt Win Rosdhu Queen 2.55pm Newbury
1pts Win Olympic Glory 3.30pm Newbury
Weekend Football
Saturday
1pt Win double – Sheffield United to beat Portsmouth (1.9) and Brentford to beat Hartlepool (1.95).
Sunday
1pt Win Chelsea to beat Liverpool at BETDAQ odds of 3.6
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