THE BETDAQ PUNTER returns with his usual mix of looking back on the highs and lows of his betting week on BETDAQ and looking forward to this weekend.
Our intrepid BETDAQ PUNTER has a bet in the football and racing.
So how did his punting week and systems fare last week ?
Friday
I miss my football. There, I have said it and I mean it -transfer rumours are OK I suppose but I want matches to bet on, so roll on the Confederation Cup next weekend I suppose, as I always seem to come unstuck if I have a punt on the friendlies. Perhaps the lack of footie drove me to it but I had to have a couple of bets today with some serious games going on in Africa with World Cup qualifying. As is my (bad?) habit, I used the International rankings to decide the fate of my cash as Libya (ranked 69) took on the Democratic Republic of Congo (79), and Sudan (135) played Ghana (13). An obvious home win and an obvious away win saw me bet accordingly, snapping up the 1.95 and the 1.58 and feeling pretty pleased with myself – but pride comes before a fall. Watching on the internet via my tablet (I so love technology), I managed to see Libya miss a 14th minute penalty which was as exciting as it got as they played out a 0-0 draw and I lost my bet, though Ghana won easily enough and at least recouped some of my losses I suppose. Horse racing saw me drawn like a moth to a flame to my “lay the odds on favourites” theory, which didn’t really start too well! The first two at bath (Hatha Hooh 1.99 with BETDAQ and Daylight 1.85) both won and were followed by three other winners at 1.65, 1.85, and 1.86 hardly helped but three losers came to my rescue and reduced my losses to a point – not the best of days but here comes the weekend!
Saturday
Winner finding was the name of the game today (laying is more of a midweek pastime to be honest), and I followed my own advice and had a chunky bet on Producer, getting plenty on at 2.65 and 2.6 on BETDAQ – I just wish he had been my only bet after romping home by close to two lengths with any amount in hand. Sadly, greed got the better of me yet again as I had already lost on Eton Forever (5th at 4.2 on BETDAQ) though my each way bet on Picture Dealer at Chester paid off as he placed for Gary Moore at odds of 2.6 though how I missed the same stable’s Dutch Masterpiece (Won 3.4) is beyond even me. Like a lamb to the slaughter I continued with some small bets on the African football, again sticking to my rankings theory! Anything less than a gap of ten places between the teams needs to be dismissed as too risky (it’s a new rule I just made up), leaving me with bets on five of the ten games -Ethiopia to win in Botswana, Zambia to beat Lesotho, Ivory Coast to see off Gambia, and Morocco to make home advantage tell against Tanzania. Winners at 3.7 (Ethiopia, get in and thank you BETDAQ layers), 1.17 (Zambia), 1.57 (Ivory Coast) and 1.55 (Morocco) gave me the NAP hand and set my mind racing towards early retirement yet again – though we all know it will never last! England were shocking against Norway and the least said about that the better (1.77 now looks like terrible value lol) but we did have Baseball to follow overnight, although I won’t be tipping up unnamed favourites again though it sort of worked out in the end. Four winners v three losers in the end with odds of 1.96, 1.58, 1.88, and 1.8 left us with the smallest of small profits, but a bit of fun for our money.
Sunday
Statistics will surely prove me wrong (they invariably do) but I just get the feeling there are more shocks on Sunday racing than the rest of the week, which makes it a good day to leave them alone in my book. Six more African World Cup Qualifiers made sense and after checking the rankings, I ended up with five bets remaining (Togo v Cameroon only had eight places between them). Four winners at BETDAQ odds of 1.93 (Egypt), 2.07 (Algeria), 2.42 (Burkina Faso), and 1.5 (Guinea) made me wish I had increased my stakes but then that is plain greedy, though I still had more than enough to take the family out for dinner!
Monday
Never the best day of the week for punters so time for some scrapping around I suppose starting with the horse racing. Low quality = shock results in my book which means time to lay the odds on favourites again – though once again it started pretty badly. Stepping Out won the first at Brighton at BETDAQ odds of 1.6 and Saint Roque won at Newton Abbot at odds of 1.45 BUT first Windsor (Constantine lost 1.99) then Southwell rode to the rescue with Azure Fly jinking and unseating Noel Fehily when looking sure to score at odds of 1.62, and Brassbound running a stinker 2.0 to leave me up on the day, all be it only just.
Tuesday
The news came through in the morning that Sir Henry Cecil had passed away which came as a horrible shock – he has been around all of my racing life, and the racecards will not look the same from tomorrow onwards. Us punters could always rely on his horses to try their very best (Nottingham and Leicester were particularly profitable, if memory serves), and he will be sorely missed by us all as well as friends and family. It just didn’t seem right to bet on the horses today so I focussed on my new football plan, this time trying it out on the Asian, European, and South American World Cup qualifiers, with mixed success. Six teams were ranked ten or more pales ahead of their opponents on official FIFA rankings which gave me six winners at BETDAQ odds of 1.39, 1.62, 2.17, 1.18, 1.04, and 1.38, plus just two losers for a close to as point profit.
Wednesday
I have failed to take much notice of the greyhounds so far this week (with time at a premium), so today we break the mould and look for favourites, increasing our stake after a loser and stopping after a winner. Tea break and a tablet allowed me to place my bets via the BETDAQ app at Hall Green and Newcastle. Once again I got all excited and once again the very first dog won (Trap 5 Holycross Ben 11.03 Hall Green 3.2 on BETDAQ), so a bit of a damp squib but rules are rules and profit is profit – same again tomorrow hopefully. More World Cup qualifiers but they failed to go my way today with four bets but just the two winners at BETDAQ odds of 2.6 and 1.25 for the smallest of small losses on the day.
Thursday
Where has the week gone already? Royal Ascot next week to look forward to (I never make any money, but its great fun trying), and no World Cup football to weave my magic on either, so back to the greyhounds horses and maybe cricket I suppose? Doggies go first as always with Sheffield and Sunderland the morning cards I work with, though this time I was biting my nails I admit! Staking to make a point before retiring with a smile on my face, four losers made my staking a bit higher than I prefer though thankfully 2.3 chance Tyrur Vanessa won race 5 by half a length from trap 3 which was good enough to let me stop with my pride just about intact. Cricket saw me place an early morning bet on England through patriotism more than expertise (BETDAQ odds of 1.68) but with a late finish, some more work on the horses was still needed. Laying odds on had worked but then so has backing handicap favourites in the past, so that was my route this afternoon. Wary of too many losers after the dogs I reduced my opening bet accordingly and wished I hadn’t as Jubilant Queen hacked up in the 2.30pm at Nottingham, my first race, and at BETDAQ odds of 4.2 – always the way but a winner is a winner regardless of the stakes I suppose (he says through gritted teeth)?
Conclusions:
Bet of the week – Producer hacked up at BETDAQ odds of 2.65 and I admit, I availed myself of the layers generosity!
Disaster of the week – England Under 21’s AGAIN, this time losing to Norway, costly and embarrassing all in one.
Something for the weekend:
A tricky scenario really as I so want to get involved with Royal Ascot but am really struggling to find even the slightest value at this stage and will leave that to the experts. That rather leaves me focussing on matters a bit nearer to hand in which case I will settle for a small each way bet on Stableford in the Sandown opener currently set for 1.50pm. Brian Meehan is nobody’s fool and always leaves plenty to work on with his newcomers (or so it seems to me), so no great surprise that after finishing runner up at a big price at Doncaster, he hacked up pulling a cart when well backed next time out at Yarmouth. Whether he is well handicapped or not only connections know but there were other races they could easily have sent him to so I am assuming they think he is well in and will be backing him win and place accordingly.
Seven more African World Cup qualifiers await on Saturday and ten more on Sunday so they will keep me more than busy enough thank you, with fifteen qualifiers in total so we had best keep the bets pretty small!
My suggestions are:
Saturday
Central Africa to beat Botswana
Zambia to beat Sudan
Burkina Faso to beat Congo
Gabon to beat Niger
Morocco to beat Gambia
Sunday
Ivory Coast to beat Tanzania
South Africa to beat Ethiopia
Ghana to beat Lesotho
Egypt to beat Mozambique
Algeria to beat Rwanda
Cameroon to beat DR Congo
Tunisia to beat Equatorial Guinea
Senegal to beat Liberia
Guinea to beat Zimbabwe
Mali to beat Benin
And that will do for this week, certainly plenty to think about!
This week’s suggested bets (all prices with BETDAQ and correct at the time of writing):
Horse Racing Saturday
Half point each way Stableford 1.50pm Sandown
Football this weekend
1/4 point win each
Central Africa to beat Botswana 3.0
Zambia to beat Sudan 1.25
Burkina Faso to beat Congo 2.71
Gabon to beat Niger 1.4
Morocco to beat Gambia 1.3
Ivory Coast to beat Tanzania 1.41
South Africa to beat Ethiopia 2.17
Ghana to beat Lesotho 1.3
Egypt to beat Mozambique 1.69
Algeria to beat Rwanda 1.69
Cameroon to beat DR Congo 2.38
Tunisia to beat Equatorial Guinea 1.9
Senegal to beat Liberia 1.73
Guinea to beat Zimbabwe 1.34
Mali to beat Benin 1.42
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