SATURDAY T20 WORLD CUP: The Edge previews Sri Lanka v Pakistan with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
Sri Lanka v Pakistan
MATCH OVERVIEW:
Pakistan’s T20 World Cup campaign arrives at its defining moment on Saturday at Pallekele on Betdaq Betting Exchange . For a long time on Friday afternoon, they were out of the tournament with New Zealand on their way to beating England – step forward Will Jacks. He fired England home with 32 not out off 18 balls and kept Pakistan’s World Cup hopes alive. New Zealand traded as short as 1.06 – this game was nearly a dead rubber, and now New Zealand have to watch nervously and cheer for the home side! Pakistan’s Super 8 campaign has been nothing short of a disaster really, but here we are, a chance. The chance is still small however, given the net run rate situation, Pakistan do need a big win.
I estimate Pakistan would need to win by around 65 runs batting first, or chase a target within 13 overs. That’s going to be especially difficult against Sri Lanka in home conditions. Pakistan’s captain Salman Agha reportedly faces the sack if they fail to make the Semi-Finals – perhaps a little harsh given how Pakistan came into the tournament. The boycott drama with the Indian game, the washout against New Zealand – Pakistan haven’t had the luck on their side. The harsher version of that though is when they have played cricket, they have been quite average – they were a few dropped catches away from Netherlands beating them.
Sri Lanka are already eliminated – the first team to go from the Super 8 stage. They lost to England by 51 runs in Kandy and then to New Zealand by 61 runs in Colombo. Their captain Dasun Shanaka made an emotional public appeal to ‘save the only sport we have’ after the New Zealand defeat – a desperate plea about the funding and future of cricket in Sri Lanka. We’ve all spoken about the ICC funding the smaller nations but if Sri Lanka have issues too then surely world cricket is in trouble. Still, Sri Lanka will have a packed Pallekele ground cheering them on; pride and their home crowd will drive them – they won’t want Pakistan to embarrass them here and win by the big margin required.
WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:
For the first time in what feels like the entire tournament, the weather forecast is not a worry – and that is a significant factor in itself given the Sri Lankan weather. After rain washed out Pakistan’s opener against New Zealand in Colombo, the last thing Pakistan need here is rain given they have to big so win. The Pallekele pitch has been one of the most interesting surfaces of the tournament – we’ve had a range of scores. The first inning totals have been 225/5 (won), 181 all out (chased), 104 all out (chased), 146/9 (won) and 164/9 (won). Both sides have had some bad moments here against England, but it was the venue where Sri Lanka beat Australia. Given how this pitch has been playing in the tournament, I’d keep an open mind on scoring conditions.
RECOMMENDED BET:
Pakistan come into the game as the favourites at 1.7. These situations are always interesting – a game within a game as they say. Pakistan must change their tactic to win big, they have no other option but to go for it. I would suggest chasing might be their best chance – they’ll know exactly how many balls they have to get to the target for the net run rate that way. If Sri Lanka bat well in the first innings, then Pakistan could easily burn wickets chasing the target quickly. We might actually have a situation here where Sri Lanka win just by Pakistan being too aggressive. In fairness, both sides have been lacklustre throughout the tournament so I feel the value play here is a Sri Lanka win at 2.36.
The Edge Says:
One point win Sri Lanka to beat Pakistan at 2.36 with Betdaq Betting Exchange
View the market here -> https://betdaq.biz/WCSrPa
IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:
This game is all about the margin, and that creates some fascinating in-running angles. Wicket wise, batting first might be the best option but as I said above, from a net run rate point of view Pakistan probably have to bat second. If Sri Lanka’s seamers get early wickets and silence the Pakistan batting line-up in the powerplay, that pressure of needing such a big margin could cause genuine panic – I do feel the market will offer value on Sri Lanka here. Especially when/if the net run rate is slipping away from Pakistan.
