SRI LANKA v ENGLAND: Our cricket tipster The Edge previews Thursday’s 1st Test between SRI LANKA v ENGLAND with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MATCH OVERVIEW:
England have arrived into Sri Lanka for a two match Test series to a number of issues. We’re all set for a fascinating couple of weeks, with both Tests taking place at Galle. It looks like Moeen Ali is set to miss both Tests now after the Sri Lankan authorities have asked for a longer isolation after he tested positive for Covid19 when arriving into the country. He would have been a massive part of England’s part given the likely spinning conditions at Galle and now England have to find a replacement quickly.
The risks with travelling and Covid19 are obvious, but it’s just going to be a part of the sporting world for a while. England are on the unlucky end this time but when they have home advantage this summer we might see a star from the opposition ruled out. Sri Lanka aren’t the force they once were, but there’s no doubt that conditions will suit them at Galle and England will have to deal with a spinning wicket. Historically, you have to score big runs batting first at Galle before the pitch starts turning square towards the end of the game. Given there’s two Tests here, batting conditions will probably be better than average for the 1st Test but it’s still hard to see a draw.
England are a massive force in English conditions, but we’re likely to see either Broad or Anderson start, with it being unlikely we’ll see both. Both sides will likely go for lots of spinning options, and we have a fascinating Test match ahead. There’s bound to be plenty of big swings in-running with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:
I have to say, conditions are fascinating here. Galle is always a tricky place to bat with massive spin. However, given there are two Tests here back-to-back and without much time between them, the wicket can’t start with a lot of spin otherwise Sri Lanka will probably get fired by the ICC. The thing is, the more spin the better from a Sri Lankan point of view. I can’t wait to see the first few overs and see what the ball is doing – I can’t imagine we’ll see the seamers for long with so many spinning options. England have had success here in 2018, but Sri Lanka have won six of the last eight Tests here and you have to go back to 2013 for the last draw. Don’t expect big scores here, with 350+ generally being a massive score here. South Africa only managed 126 and 73 here in 2018.
RECOMMENDED BET:
A fascinating market here. It’s quite open with England the favourites at 2.6. That feels a little short in my view, especially without Moeen Ali. I fully take on board that Sri Lanka aren’t the force of old, but these conditions are perfect for them and they won’t fear the England spinners. I don’t want to lay England, as I don’t feel the need to have the draw on side here. So for me Sri Lanka are a very tempting bet at 3.15, but at the same time I’m very interested in laying the draw at the current 3.1. I feel the draw might trade shorter in-running, as it always does here, so I will hold fire to lay that at a lower price in-running. For me Sri Lanka are the value bet at the start of the Test.
The Edge Says:
Two points win Sri Lanka to beat England at 3.15 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
View the market here -> http://bit.ly/BDQSriEng
IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:
As I said above, I think we can expect a lot of swings in-running here. We’ve had a lot of collapses down through the years here, so always keep check of your position. We have an early start each day at 4-30am, it would be painful to wake up at 7am with your team after losing five quick wickets – it happens all too often at Galle. For the in-running strategy, I can see the draw trading shorter than the current 3.1 but I’ve no interesting in backing it to lay it later. I’d rather just lay it at around 2.0 to 2.5 in-running.
I feel Sri Lanka can bat very well here given the England bowling line-up is weakened without Moeen Ali, and I wouldn’t be fearful of Broad or Anderson – indeed, I wouldn’t be surprise if neither played. I can see England having a collapse at some stage too over the two Tests – their batting line-up is very good but not many of them dig in – they are too attacking for the conditions at Galle.
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