THE EDGE: The Edge previews the 1st Test between NEW ZEALAND v ENGLAND with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
New Zealand v England 1st Test
MATCH OVERVIEW:
England’s Test side are back in action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as they begin the New Zealand series on Wednesday night. On paper, this is a series that England will be expected to win – conditions will be very similar to England, and New Zealand haven’t been a “top tier” Test side for a while. However, New Zealand come into this series off the back of one of the biggest cricketing shocks of 2024 when beating India 3-0 in their home backyard. Winning one Test in India is quite rare, whitewashing a series is unheard of. It’s been an exceptionally busy winter already for England – this is their third winter tour in seven weeks!
Obviously England use a two team system for red and white ball cricket, but even allowing for that their schedule has been exceptionally hectic. Being away from family at Christmas has been a big topic in the England camp over the last few years, and this series will finish well before Christmas but schedule is quite tight. These two sides play a very attacking brand of cricket, so it should be an entertaining series and you know what the market is expecting with the draw priced so high! That’s trading 16.0 at the moment which is in and around the same price as the 1st Test between Australia and India.
A major talking point coming into the 1st Test here has been England giving Jacob Bethell a debut. A huge talent, but the situation once again exposes the poor domestic system in England in the sense that once again we have a player without the domestic reps in the bank. That’s a lot of pressure for a young player too. A fascinating series awaits however; England will be the outsiders but you could say they “need a result” in this series after a red ball series loss in Pakistan and an ODI series loss in West Indies.
WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:
We begin the Test series in Christchurch. England players will know conditions well here given this is a popular venue in New Zealand. It will be fascinating to see what wicket New Zealand produce, but you have to expect a reasonably quick surface that will have some movement for the quicks. Basically, English conditions so England can’t have any excuses in that regard. Test cricket started here in 2014 and it has been a result venue. Only one draw (which did involve England!) from twelve Test matches. We have had some exceptionally low scores here – South Africa got bowled out for 95 and 111 in 2022 for example, but in general we see scores around the 300 mark in the first innings. Runs are there once batters get in and get settled, but there’s always a little bit for the bowlers.
RECOMMENDED BET:
It’s no surprise to see the draw so big at 16.0 – as I said above, the way these sides play the game we’re always unlikely to have a draw and obviously this is a result venue too. That pretty much leaves a straight shootout between the sides with New Zealand the favourites at 1.98 with England 2.28. New Zealand have been knocked quite a few times in recent years, they’ve gone through some changes with stars getting older etc, but obviously that 3-0 series win in India is exceptionally impressive. I’m keen to keep stakes low for the first game, but I make this a 50/50 game and I’m happy with a small position on England from a value point of view.
The Edge Says:
One point win England to beat New Zealand at 2.28 with Betdaq Exchange
View the market here -> https://betdaq.biz/NZEng
IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:
Looking at how games generally develop here, you wouldn’t be surprised to see plenty of swings in-running. The best in-running trading advice here is to not get married to a position because we should have plenty of twists and turns. As I said above, runs are there when batters get in but there’s generally always something there for the bowlers. I would be quite cagey about opening a trade on either batting side, but I do feel once you get someone like Joe Root for example in and settled, then that’s a very good option for a momentum trade. Another nice option could be runs once either side get through the new ball; we have had some very low scores here, but a new position for a trade on the batting side could be between that 45 and 75 over mark. I would expect the bowlers to generally be on top, but it does seem par is around 300 unless the ball is moving all over the place.
