Novak Djokovic (1) vs Andy Murray (3)
Followers of this column will know that this year’s Australian Open predictions couldn’t have gone much better. OK, so it doesn’t take a genius to predict an Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic final. In truth this would’ve been the most popular final from a betting perspective and could’ve been picked by someone who doesn’t overly follow the sport. Readers of my outright preview would’ve seen I’d predicted Djokovic to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu, Ryan Harrison, Radek Stepanek, Stanislas Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer en route to tomorrow’s final and suffice to say that’s occurred. It wasn’t without a fright or two along the way but Djokovic goes into the championship match having won TWENTY consecutive matches in Melbourne, equalling Ivan Lendl’s open era record from between 1989 and 1991. All quarter-finals and semi-finals have been called correctly right here so if you’re sitting on a decent balance, I hope Djokovic can give you (and me) one final boost tomorrow!
Andy Murray stands between 2.1 outright selection Djokovic and a 21st consecutive Australian Open win which would see Djokovic secure his third consecutive title down under and his fourth overall. Regardless of the outcome, one of the tour’s big four (i.e. Djokovic, Murray, Federer, and Nadal) will win a Grand Slam for an extraordinary 31st time from the last 32 majors which further highlights the gulf in class between the game’s biggest names and the chasing pack. Arguably one of the leading members of the chasing pack David Ferrer was absolutely dismantled by Djokovic on Thursday and was perhaps the ideal preparation for Sunday’s final. Murray on the other hand had to overcome Roger Federer in five tough sets and would’ve preferred to have served it out in the fourth set.
I think Sunday’s showpiece could turn into a bit of a lengthy affair, especially when you consider the 4hr 54mins final in New York last September and the 4hr 50mins final right here in Australia this time last year. On that basis, everything points towards an epic and that’s the angle for tomorrow I feel. It’s difficult to see neither player putting up a fight and by the same token, it’s almost as difficult to see either of the pair blowing the other off the court. Crucial to Murray’s victory over Federer on Friday was how well he served and he’d need to perform at a similar level to trouble Djokovic tomorrow. 21 aces to Federer’s 5 is quite a striking statistic and having served zero double faults, even at the pivotal points in the match, in addition to winning 75% of points when his first serve landed, Murray proved incredibly difficult to break. Federer was only afforded six opportunities to do just that and could only take two which, over the course of a four-hour match, is pretty disappointing. I’d expect Novak to be far less wasteful so Murray’s serving will be under the spotlight. Djokovic’s stats from his match with Ferrer are difficult to assess because he was so dominant in each and every department. Never at any point did he look in trouble but the 95% of first serve points won is quite staggering.
Murray will need to play the perfect match tomorrow and whilst he’ll take the positives from his defeat of Djokovic in New York, I just can’t oppose the top seed having seen the form he’s shown this fortnight and with him being our outright pick for the event itself, I won’t be deserting him now. The Serbian will find it tough tomorrow and may well need the best part of five hours to see off Murray but I feel he will. I suspect he’ll need all five sets to do it but should have just enough to emerge victorious and win a record-breaking 21st straight match in Australia.
Selection: Novak Djokovic @ 1.57
Score: 3-2 @ 6.0
