MASTERS: As sporting events go, the Masters is in a class by itself. There is simply nothing like it– the tradition and pageantry, the small, select field, the perfectly-manicured cathedral of a golf course that has charmed, haunted, and beguiled players since it was built by Jones himself nearly 100 years ago… in my humble opinion, it’s as close as this world has to a sportsman’s Valhalla. And here we are again, ready to watch history unfold one more time amidst the blooming azaleas and tall Georgia pines. Thursday can’t get here fast enough.
The only thing better than watching the Masters is winning a big pile of cash while doing so, and last year was special in that regard, as we recommended (and backed) Danny Willett at nearly 90/1. Willett was the beneficiary of Jordan Spieth’s stunning implosion, but that certainly doesn’t take anything away from what the young Englishman accomplished, as his steely-nerved 67 on Sunday was truly the stuff of champions. He’s been struggling a bit lately, however, and is currently trading at 188.0 at BETDAQ, making him a bona fide longshot as he attempts to become the first player in 15 years to win back-to-back green jackets.
At the top of the market sits Dustin Johnson, a man who has separated himself from his peers over these past few months and is now clearly the world’s best player. He’s coming off three consecutive victories and back-to-back top-6 finishes in this event, but a frighteningly short price and past struggles on the Augusta National greens may cause some bettors to look elsewhere. I am one of those, though I admit to being a little hesitant about staying away from a guy who’s been winning every time he tees it up.
Johnson isn’t the only one who’s been playing good golf, however, and his Masters record isn’t all that impressive compared to some of the other top contenders. Here are a few suggestions that may be worth a look:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Rickie Fowler (24.0)– Fowler has been playing brilliant golf since February, finishing 16th or better in five consecutive starts, a stretch that includes a win at the Honda Classic and a 3rd-place showing in Houston last week. He’s really improved his ball-striking over the past couple of years but he’s always been elite with the putter in his hands, which is why many have long thought that his major championship breakthrough would come at the Masters. He’s had some success here, too, finishing 5th in 2014 and 12th in 2015, and last year marked the first time in six tries that he failed to make the cut. I don’t think we have to worry too much about a repeat performance; on the contrary, after what we’ve seen out of Fowler lately I don’t believe there’s a safer pick this side of Dustin Johnson. That makes him a terrific value at a price like 24.0.
Marc Leishman (62.0)- After an unremarkable 2016 season Leishman has come back strong this year, making 7 of 8 cuts on the PGA Tour and picking up a win at last month’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s only played once since then, advancing out of group play at the Dell Matchplay before falling to Phil Mickelson in the Round of 16, so we know his form is excellent and his confidence sky-high. A big hitter with soft hands who likes to work the ball right-to-left off the tee, Leishman seems like a perfect fit for Augusta National, but his Masters record is a mixed bag. And maybe “mixed bag” is being kind considering he’s only made one cut in four appearances here, but he did finish 4th the year he made the cut, so we know (and he knows) that he has it in him. He’s really flying under the radar this week despite the fact that he won less than a month ago, and I’m happy to hop aboard at the current price.
Adam Hadwin (108.0)- History has taught us that experience matters at Augusta, but sometimes, as was the case last year, a young player who’s been roundly overlooked will hijack the narrative and make a legitimate run. Adam Hadwin is a prime candidate for that sort of thing this week, so if you’re looking for a long-odds type with a legitimate chance to win I’d think very hard about the young Canadian. He’s been a fixture on the first page of leaderboards lately, winning the Valspar Championship last month and following that with a 6th-place showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. And it’s not like those performances were out of the blue, either– Hadwin opened 2017 with a runner-up finish at the CareerBuilder Challenge and then logged a top-15 in Phoenix. He’s made nine consecutive cuts and currently sits 5th on the PGA Tour’s money list, so as outsiders go he’s got a pretty impressive resume. What’s more, he’s one of the best putters in the world, ranking 7th on Tour in ‘strokes gained: putting.’ Figuring out the slippery Augusta greens will certainly be a challenge, but at better than 100/1 I’m willing to pay to see if Hadwin’s up for it.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Henrik Stenson (1.91) vs. Adam Scott (1.96)
Stenson is a bit of an unknown commodity this week, as he’s had recurring health issues for the past few months and comes in on the heels of back-to-back missed cuts. You could forgive a lot of that if he had a spectacular Masters record, but the Swede often looks uncomfortable at Augusta National and has not recorded a top-10 finish in 11 career Masters appearances. Scott, meanwhile, has a Masters record that includes a victory and four top-10s. The putter can get a little balky at times, but Scott absolutely dominates Augusta National from tee to green and is a safe bet to make the cut, which is more than we can say for Stenson. And Scott has shown some signs of life this season, registering back-to-back top-15s at the Genesis Open and Honda Classic. Recommendation: Scott at 1.96
Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.91) vs. Thomas Pieters (1.91)
Pieters has really burst onto the scene over the past couple of years and he caught a lot of people’s attention with his performance in the Ryder Cup, but this will be his first Masters appearance and it remains to be seen whether he putts well enough to succeed on the treacherous Augusta National greens. At the very least, you would think that it would take him a little while to get the hang of them, especially when you consider his mediocre-to-ugly putting stats this season. Fitzpatrick isn’t quite as “hot” of a name, but he’s had a good run of late, finishing 16th or better in three of his past four worldwide starts, and he surely feels comfortable at Augusta after a 7th-place showing last year. Recommendation: Fitzpatrick at 1.91
