THE PLAYERS: We’ve reached the one-year anniversary of when it all began to fall apart, as The Players was cancelled mid-tournament last year amidst the fast-developing COVID situation. With the pandemic now receding, especially in the States and most especially in the state of Florida, where businesses are open and masking is mostly optional, this week definitely feels like a full-circle moment: the PGA Tour and the golf world in general have weathered the storm, and now the Tour’s premier championship will be staged, spectators and all, in the shadows of their brand-new $100 million Florida headquarters.
The Players is a notable event for many reasons– the iconic course, the largest purse in all of golf, the distinguished list of past champions– and has maintained its informal “fifth major” status despite the success of the World Golf Championships series. The enduring allure of the 17th hole, an island green par-3 where most of the reduced-capacity gallery will surely congregate, is a big part of this tournament’s popularity and notoriety, and there’s an unmistakable aura of magic and suspense surrounding the proceedings there, particularly on Sunday afternoon. But TPC Sawgrass is much more than one iconic shot; it’s been described by Pete Dye himself as his masterpiece, a thorough examination of a player’s game that doesn’t favor any one particular shot-shape or style of play. While visually intimidating off the tee, it’s not particularly long by Tour standards, but precision iron play is required when approaching the firm, segmented Bermuda greens.
Generally regarded as a ball-striker’s layout, TPC Sawgrass has been conquered by a wide variety of characters and styles, everyone from Tiger and Phil to Tim Clark and Fred Funk, which is a hallmark of a well-designed course. Rory McIlroy hoisted the trophy the last time this event was completed, in 2019, so he’s technically the defending champion this week and is at his usual perch near the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market, where he can currently be backed at 19.5. There are several tempting options around the 20/1-30/1 range, Rory among them, and as is always the case with a field of this caliber, there are plenty of quality players with fat prices next to their names. Might as well throw a little love their way too, eh? With that in mind, here are a few suggestions:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Justin Thomas (23.0)- When listing off qualities of the type of player you’re looking for this week, you’d of course want someone who is playing well at the moment, has a good history at TPC Sawgrass, can hit all the shots while also possessing great touch around the greens, and has proven that he has the nerve to win the very biggest events against the very best competition. Well, Thomas checks every one of those boxes, and it’s now been seven full months since his last win, so you know he’s itching to taste victory again. It’s not like he hasn’t been close in recent months, as he’s logged four top-5 finishes, including a pair of runner-ups, in his last 10 starts, finishing out of the top-15 only once in that span. He played three terrific rounds at Concession last time out after a disappointing Thursday 73 and wound up finishing T15, and given his record at The Players, which includes a 3rd-place finish in 2016 and a T11 in 2018, you have to think it’s only a matter of time until his name is etched on the trophy. I’m happy to take a chance on him this week at better than 20/1.
Scottie Scheffler (62.0)- He may not be one of the favorites, but don’t sleep on Scheffler this week– he’s made a boatload of money over the last month, finishing 7th in Phoenix, T20 at the Genesis, and 5th at the WGC Workday, and his ball-striking has been razor-sharp, as he’s now up to 16th in strokes gained off the tee and 37th in strokes gained tee-to-green after a slow start to the season in that regard. A native Texan, he does his best work on Bermuda greens, and with the way he’s been hitting the ball he should have lots of chances on the smallish Sawgrass putting surfaces. Though this is technically his tournament debut, Scheffler was able to get in his first round last year prior to the cancellation and he was quite impressive, shooting 4-under 68, so we should feel a little better about him from a course knowledge standpoint than we ordinarily would with someone on debut. All things considered, 62.0 seems like awfully good value for a red-hot Scheffler, making this my favorite bet on the board this week.
Corey Conners (82.0)- Maybe recency bias is affecting me a bit here, because I admit to being quite impressed with Conners’ performance in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, when he finished 3rd after hovering around the lead all week. Unquestionably one of the finest ball-strikers in the world, Conners currently ranks in the top-20 on Tour in strokes gained off the tee, on approach, and tee-to-green– a trifecta of consistent brilliance. His putting is what has always held him back a bit, if you call a thriving Tour career being “held back”, but even that has come around in recent weeks, making Conners a very dangerous man indeed. Last week’s showing was his seventh top-25 and fourth top-10 in his last 9 starts, so he’s obviously playing with a lot of confidence, and TPC Sawgrass sure seems like it would suit his game. He’s had one crack at it, finishing T41 in 2019, and something tells me he’ll top that performance this week… possibly in a big way. If you’re looking for a longshot with unlimited upside, Conners is your man.
