The top 50 players in the world have all found their way to Northeast Florida this week, where The Players Championship, commonly known as the “5th major”, will be held at famed TPC Sawgrass. Though mostly known for its spectacular finishing holes, TPC Sawgrass is a tee-to-green challenge from start to finish, a course that requires straightness off the tee and precision iron play.
Martin Kaymer fired a 13-under par 275 to take home the trophy last year, riding a course record-tying 63 in the opening round and finishing things off with three tough pars down the stretch to hold off Jim Furyk. Kaymer is back to defend and can currently be backed at 96.0 at BETDAQ.
The betting favorites, of course, are Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, who can be backed at 8.6 and 8.8 respectively. The tournament committee has made the inspired decision to group McIlroy and Spieth together for the first two rounds, giving us all what we want to see: the two players who are likely to dominate the golf world for the next 20 years matched up head-to-head. Conveniently, BETDAQ is offering a McIlroy vs. Spieth tournament match bet (see below), so their duel this week can be as interesting as you want it to be.
We nearly struck gold at last week’s WGC-Match Play with Jim Furyk, who we had backed at 30.0 on Wednesday and who advanced all the way to the semifinals before losing a tight match to eventual champion McIlroy. This week is a bit tougher, as the field is both bigger and better, and you’ll notice that several quality players are saddled with exceptionally long odds, making it tempting to eschew the favorites.
Here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jimmy Walker (39)- Walker hasn’t played much over the past couple of months, as his only stroke-play tournament since his win at San Antonio was The Masters, where he made the cut but didn’t make any noise over the weekend. For that reason he’s coming in a bit under the radar this week, with most of the “experts” looking elsewhere when making their predictions. I think this could be a good spot for Walker, though, because TPC Sawgrass really seems like it should suit Walker’s game. It’s tight, it features tee-to-green Bermuda grass, and a premium is placed on mid-to-short iron play. Walker has fared well here, making 4 of 5 cuts over the course of his career and finishing 6th last year, so he’s proven that, indeed, TPC Sawgrass sets up well for him. At a price like 39.0, Walker is surely worth a bet.
Lee Westwood (54)– Many golf fans seem to be of the opinion that Westwood’s time has passed, but his play suggests otherwise. He’s been rolling along nicely on the PGA Tour this season, recording six top-25 finishes in 8 starts, and he played well at the WGC-Match Play last week, picking up a victory over Jordan Spieth and advancing to the Round of 16 before falling to countryman Danny Willett. Plus, he has a great history at this tournament, finishing 6th last year, 8th in 2013, and 4th in 2010. A win this week would be the biggest of Westwood’s career, and I don’t think it’s out of the question.
Brooks Koepka (140)- We always like to give you one longshot every week, and this isn’t the first time we’ve recommended Brooks Koepka. If you aren’t yet familiar with Koepka, you will be soon. The 25-year old Florida native is a fabulous ball striker with a knack for making birdies, and he broke through with a win at Phoenix earlier this year. This will be his first appearance at TPC Sawgrass, which is one of the reasons for the long odds, but he had never played TPC Scottsdale, either, and that didn’t stop him from winning there. I know a lot of people will be stunned if Koepka is left holding the trophy on Sunday afternoon, but I won’t be among them.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Rory McIlroy (1.95) vs. Jordan Spieth (1.93)
The two best players in the world will be paired together over the first two rounds, making this “must bet” territory for recreational gamblers. Put simply, there is nothing negative you could say about either player. Spieth is just a couple of weeks removed from his record-setting Masters performance, McIlroy won the WGC-Match Play last week, and both men played well at this tournament last year, with Spieth finishing 4th (278) and McIlroy 6th (279). While Rory has a bit more experience and some built-in advantages– length, primarily– it just seems like TPC Sawgrass is built for Spieth and his style of play. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.93
Dustin Johnson (1.86) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (1.86)
Without a doubt, Dustin Johnson has accomplished more in the world of professional golf than young Hideki Matsuyama, and for that reason many people may be tempted by Johnson here at 1.86. However, Johnson has never played well at TPC Sawgrass, missing the cut three times and finishing no better than 34th in six career starts. Matsuyama, meanwhile, finished 23rd last year in his first Players Championship and has been playing very well recently, finishing 5th at The Masters and logging three more top-5 finishes this season. Recommendation: Matsuyama at 1.86
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