THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP: Commonly referred to as the “fifth major” before the advent of the WGC series, The Players Championship is still one of the premier events in the world of golf and a coveted title for the sport’s biggest names. And with good reason– aside from the official “Major” designation, this tournament has it all: an iconic venue (TPC Sawgrass), a massive purse ($10.5 million, with $1.89 million going to the winner), and a field that’s as strong as you’ll find anywhere (top 125 from 2015 PGA Tour money list, top 50 in the current World Golf Rankings, and a few others).
Rickie Fowler triumphed in memorable fashion last year, erasing a five-shot deficit with six holes to play to sneak into a three-way playoff and then stuffing it twice in a row on the famed island green 17th to cap off the victory in style. It was the biggest win of Fowler’s career, and he enters this week a 20/1 shot at BETDAQ as he looks to become the first man in tournament history to successfully defend his title.
That’s right, TPC Sawgrass has produced exactly zero back-to-back winners in its 34-year history, which tells us a little bit about the nature of the course. It is a place that favors neither a draw nor a fade, a place where both the “short and straight” type and the bomber compete on equal footing (case in point: Adam Scott’s win in 2004 was followed by Fred Funk in 2005. Funk is 25 years older than Scott and about 40 yards behind him off the tee). This is all by design, of course– Pete Dye built TPC Sawgrass explicitly for the purpose of hosting The Players Championship, and he was very up front about his desire to see that the course didn’t favor any one particular style of play. It’s an unforgiving layout that can be very difficult when it dries out and the wind starts blowing, but it also yields plenty of birdies and reliably lives up to its fan-friendly reputation (lots of drama, but players aren’t struggling to make pars).
Rory McIlroy (10.0) heads the market at BETDAQ this week, and many probably think his price is a little short for someone who hasn’t done a whole lot of winning lately. I’d be careful about that logic, however– Rory seemed to be firing on all cylinders in his final-round 66 at Quail Hollow a few days ago, and his early-career struggles at TPC Sawgrass are now but an ancient memory after top-10 finishes in this event in each of the past three years. I thought long and hard about backing McIlroy myself this week, and if he wins I probably won’t be liking the taste of my dinner on Sunday evening. Let’s hope one of these guys can pull it off instead:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Henrik Stenson (29.0)- Stenson missed the cut at the Wells Fargo last week, which will surely throw many off the scent, but I wouldn’t get too worked up about a second-round 75 at Quail Hollow. It happens, after all. Looking at the larger body of work, a case could be made for backing Stenson anytime his price approaches 30/1, considering he’s finished 11th or better in seven of his past ten worldwide starts. This is especially true at TPC Sawgrass, where Stenson has been a veritable cash register throughout his career. Over the last four years, for instance, he’s finished 17th (’15), 34th (’14), 5th (’13), and 15th (’12) in this event… and oh by the way he won back in ’09. This is a top-tier contender boasting a second-tier price. Act accordingly.
Kevin Na (84.0)- Na’s game has clearly been on an upward trajectory over the past couple of months and it nearly paid off in a big way at Harbour Town three weeks ago, when a third-round 66 put him right in the thick of things and he went on to finish fourth. He’s been off since then, so he’s had some time to marinate on that nice little performance, and he should have good vibes coming to Sawgrass considering he’s logged top-10s in this event in two of the past three years (including a T6 last year). So he’s playing well at the moment, he’s played very well at TPC Sawgrass in the past, he’s a seasoned veteran who’s still in his physical prime, and he’s priced at 84.0. Sign me up.
Patton Kizzire (196.0)- We’re going deep this week in the longshot department, as PGA Tour rookie Patton Kizzire is priced at a whopping 196.0 and I’ve decided to hop aboard. This isn’t just some shot in the dark, either– Kizzire is playing really well right now, making 10 of his last 11 cuts and logging top-25s in four of his last five starts. He’s a Southern boy (Alabama native) who plays his best golf on Bermuda grass, so he should feel right at home at Sawgrass. And he’s a fabulous putter, ranking sixth on Tour in ‘strokes gained: putting’ after ranking second on the Web.com Tour in that category in 2015. We’ve seen out-of-nowhere winners at The Players before (Craig Perks, anyone?), so it’s possible… right???
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Branden Grace (1.91) vs. Danny Willett (2.02)
The sun has certainly been shining on Willett over the past month, and his post-Masters celebration tour takes a brief pause this week so he can actually play some golf. After all the interviews, photoshoots, and sleepless nights with the new baby, can we really expect all that much out of him here? I think he’s a real wild card, while Grace is a legitimate contender who should have loads of confidence after his win at Harbour Town three weeks back. Remember– Grace was tied for third after the second round last year. He knows how to get around TPC Sawgrass. Recommendation: Grace at 1.91
Phil Mickelson (1.91) vs. Patrick Reed (1.91)
Mickelson is coming off a 4th-place showing at the Wells Fargo but he’s been very inconsistent lately, as he had missed two straight cuts prior to last week and has yet to win this year. And though he won The Players back in ’07, he’s certainly had his share of struggles at TPC Sawgrass and he’s been vocal about his belief that the course doesn’t really fit his game. Reed doesn’t have much of a history at The Players, collecting a missed cut and a top-25 in two career appearances, but he’s been on fire lately, logging top-10s in four of his last six events and making the cut in the other two. Recommendation: Reed at 1.91
