BOXING DAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Tuesday’s Premier League games starting with NEWCASTLE v NOTTINGHAM FOREST all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
12.30pm One of the best days of sport on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, Boxing Day in the Premier League! We have five fixtures to enjoy today, and no doubt it will be a day spent in front of the TV for many sport fans! We have a full schedule with an early kick off, an evening one and then an 8pm fixture too. We kick off the day with Newcastle hosting Nottingham Forest. Newcastle will certainly be happy to have home advantage here; they had another away defeat before Christmas against Luton Town! That was a huge result for Luton obviously, but it takes Newcastle’s away run in the Premier League to six games without a win. They haven’t even had a difficult fixture list either, but as I highlighted before that Luton game it’s clear that they are struggling away from home – they are conceding more than they are creating. At home, it’s been a different story – they’ve actually been very impressive at home. Their average xG created is close to 2.0 and their average xG conceded is close to 1.0 – very impressive figures; pretty much all you could ask for from a home side.
It’s no surprise that they come into this game trading as the odds on favourites with home advantage. Newcastle are trading 1.49, Nottingham Forest 7.8 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing. Nottingham Forest hit the panic button and sacked Steve Cooper, who had done a wonderful job for the club and had a great relationship with the fans but he just had Forest playing poor football. New manager Nuno Espirito Santo couldn’t have got off to a worse start however; a 3-2 loss at home to Bournemouth and along with that win for Luton means Forest are now under immense pressure – especially if they lose here and Luton beat Sheffield United later in the day. Forest just haven’t been good enough this season; their average xG created has been under 1.0 and they have been poor at the back too. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably limited because obviously Newcastle have had issues – but at home they are worth backing at 1.49 here. This should be a straightforward home win.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewNtt
BOURNEMOUTH V FULHAM
3pm We have two games kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Bournemouth hosting Fulham. These two sit right beside each other after the results on Saturday with Bournemouth beating Nottingham Forest 3-2 and Fulham losing 2-0 to Burnley. That was a desperately disappointing result for Fulham, especially because Burnley have looked poor so far this season. However, Fulham have clearly had their issues too and their stats weren’t much better – their average xG created isn’t much over 1.0. They are also in the bottom five at the back. What has them so far up the table is that they are massively over-performing in front of goal. They are conceding plenty of goals and chances, but eventually they will stop scoring from awkward angles – that’s just probability – and we’ll see more results like the weekend. Bournemouth are also in the bottom five when it comes to average xG conceded figures, however they are creating much more and this is what has been saving them this season. Winning 3-2 at the weekend isn’t a surprise when you look at how open they have been playing!
Bournemouth come into the game as the favourites at 2.26 with Fulham 3.4 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. I don’t see much positive stats around Fulham this season, especially away from home and it’s hard to make the case for them here. I feel in the match odds market the choice is between Bournemouth and no bet. I’m happy to opt for no bet at 2.26 because that price feels right – there’s no value on offer – and we’ll have to look around the side markets. Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.92. When you look at the stats from both sides this game screams goals, and I really didn’t expect it to be trading as high as 1.92. I know Fulham have had issues creating high quality chances, but they are scoring and at the same time you know Bournemouth will offer up a lot of chances too. At 1.92, I feel we’re getting enough value to have a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouFlm
SHEFFIELD UNITED V LUTON TOWN
3pm Sheffield United host Luton Town next, is this a massive relegation battle or are these two sides already nailed on to go down? They are both trading long odds on to go back down to the Championship, and the reality is that both sides just haven’t been up to Premier League standard. They have the two worst performance figures in the league, both have been poor going forward and poor at the back too! Going forward; they have the two worst attacking figures – both have an average xG of under 1.0, only three clubs in the Premier League fall into that bracket. They also have the worst two defensive figures too! Where do you even start when you have so many issues all over the pitch? I suppose you could say that the winner might have a chance of getting into the mix, but I just don’t see either side being good enough to stay up. However, Luton did give themselves a massive chance with their win over Newcastle at the weekend – Nottingham Forest are clearly having issues and they might be able to catch them now.
Another win here for Luton is an absolute must in my opinion. This is a superb chance to win to be honest – they are playing the only side worse than them on paper in the league after all! I just can’t see Sheffield United staying up, even if they win here. You could see a scenario where Luton win here and overtake Nottingham Forest at some stage – then it’s game on from there, especially with a game in hand too. Sheffield United come into the game as the favourites at 2.4 with Luton Town 3.3 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. I have to say I expected a more open market than what we have – I know it’s pretty open, but the 2.4 on Sheffield United is simply too short in my opinion. They just haven’t been good enough this season, I accept Luton are a limited side too but Sheffield United have clearly been worse and I’m happy with a lay at 2.4 here. I expect Luton to make those odds look too short.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Sheffield United to beat Luton Town at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheLut
BURNLEY V LIVERPOOL
5.30pm We have another side heavily involved in the relegation battle next as Burnley host Liverpool. When you’re trading odds on to get relegated, one of the last teams you want to see is Liverpool arriving! You get the feeling that today and the games over the New Year period could be massive for Burnley. They managed a 2-0 win over Fulham at the weekend, and with Nottingham Forest losing to Bournemouth things could get interesting. Their fans will take a keen interest in the Sheffield United v Luton Town game; they definitely want Sheffield United to win there, and Nottingham Forest to lose the early kick off. The problem for Burnley then is the opposition here! It’s hard to see them getting a result against this Liverpool side who have been superb this season. Jurgen Klopp’s men had a massive game on Saturday evening and they were probably disappointed to only draw 1-1 with Arsenal having home advantage – it was a great chance to go top of the table. Everyone will be expecting a comfortable Liverpool win here in fairness.
Liverpool come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading as the shortest price of Boxing Day at 1.41 with Burnley 7.8 and the draw is 5.8 at the time of writing. Even though Burnley managed the win over Fulham at the weekend, it’s hard to feel positive towards them here. Their attacking figures are very poor – they have an average xG of close to 1.0, compare that to Liverpool who have nearly double their figure which is the best in the Premier League. I don’t see home advantage being a factor here either; Burnley are still conceding more than they are creating at home. I think this is a case of how many goals can Liverpool score rather than will they win, and the 1.41 is big enough to have a very confident bet on in my opinion. I can only see a one way traffic win here; Burnley just aren’t at the same level as Liverpool who have been playing superb football.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Liverpool to beat Burnley at 1.41 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrnLiv
MANCHESTER UNITED V ASTON VILLA
8pm We finish Boxing Day with a mouth-watering clash as Manchester United host Aston Villa. I have to say I was surprised when I clicked into the market here and saw Manchester United as the favourites. We do have an exceptionally open market however; there’s only ten ticks between the sides and it’s the most open market of the day. Manchester United are the favourites at 2.66 with Aston Villa 2.76 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. Although we do have an open market, I feel we have the wrong favourites here. Aston Villa have been playing superb football this season, and they have been on a completely different level to Manchester United. Not only that, but United haven’t even been playing good football at home; the games that they have won here they have made very hard work for themselves. Both sides had very disappointing results before Christmas – Aston Villa will be kicking themselves to only draw with Sheffield United. After beating Manchester City and Arsenal; you then go and throw away points to the worst side in the league! Manchester United lost away to West Ham to add to their woes, and they’ve just been all over the places this season. It’s hard to know what type of performance is going to come from them.
Obviously from a Manchester United point of view, it is hard to have a confident opinion on their games because you really do not know what type of mood their players are going to turn up in. I sense they want the manager out, and there is a section of the dressing room that has downed tools – we’ve been here before with them of course. Villa are eleven points ahead of United this season – they have a higher average xG created figure, and a low average xG conceded figure. In every department, Aston Villa have been better than Manchester United this season. As I said above, I was surprised to see United trading as the favourites when I clicked into the market and I feel that’s wrong. I’m very happy with a United lay here at 2.66 – a Villa win bet is tempting but it’s nice to have the draw on our side too.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Aston Villa at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunAvl
