FRIDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Friday’s 8pm KO between ARSENAL v ASTON VILLA with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
ARSENAL V ASTON VILLA
8pm Friday Night Football in the Premier League is back and we have a fascinating market on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.. Arsenal host Aston Villa in the next instalment of “can you trust Arsenal at odds on?” They are just a shade of odds on here as they are trading 1.98 at the time of writing, but we had the latest disappointing result with a 2-2 here against Crystal Palace on Monday night. Even though they lead 1-0 at half-time, Palace had enjoyed more possession and you could feel the nerves. Palace ended up taking the lead at 2-2 before Arsenal levelled it up.
It takes a brave punter to back Arsenal these days, but I really felt they would get the job done on Monday night. It just goes to show you should always keep stakes limited when backing Arsenal, even when they appear great value. I backed them on Monday night and ended up doing my money. I wasn’t unhappy with the performance, but it just highlights how frail Arsenal are at the moment. That being said, the 1.98 looks too big again here. Famous last words, I know!
A lot of the reasoning is the same as the Crystal Palace game. Aston Villa are a very limited side, and with home advantage this is a fantastic chance for Arsenal to claim three points. I know Arsenal are a mid-table side these days, but Villa have been very average this season without Jack Grealish. They will have to adjust to life without him after his move to Man City, but they aren’t creating the same volume of chances and they are conceding plenty too.
Aston Villa conceded an xG of 2.03 v Wolves, 1.92 v Spurs and then 2.45 v Man United. They were very lucky to beat Man United, and they were very lucky to beat Everton before that as the game was very even according to the xG figures. Their highest xG created this season was 1.48 against Man United but obviously their issues have been highlighted recently too! The reality is Aston Villa are there for the taking. A decent side would beat them and I fully accept you can’t fully call Arsenal a decent side these days, I still feel that they should get the job done here. 1.98 is far too big with home advantage – being at home is Arsenal’s comfort zone and if Aston Villa continue to concede chances like they have then Arsenal should have no trouble outscoring them here. Of course, stakes are limited because it’s Arsenal!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Arsenal to beat Aston Villa at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQArsast
MATCH STATS
● Arsenal – who faced Aston Villa in the first ever competitive game at the Emirates Stadium – have lost four of their last 10 home league games against the Villans (W6). The Gunners have only lost more league games at their new ground against Man City (5) and Chelsea (6).
● Aston Villa have won their last three Premier League meetings with Arsenal, as many as they had in their previous 36 against them in the competition (W3 D9 L24). They last won four consecutive league games against the Gunners in September 1962.
● Each of the last nine Premier League meetings between Arsenal and Aston Villa at the Emirates has seen at least three goals scored. The only specific fixture to see a longer such run in the competition is Manchester City at home to Newcastle – 11 times between 2007 and 2020.
● Arsenal had won seven of their nine Premier League games on a Friday before the beginning of last season (D2). Since then, however, the Gunners have lost each of their last two such fixtures at home to Everton (0-1) and away to Brentford (0-2) on the opening day this season.
● Of the 12 Premier League sides to have featured at least 10 times in the Premier League on a Friday, only Leicester (1/12) and Spurs (2/11) have a lower win % in such fixtures than Aston Villa (2/10), beating Spurs 4-1 in December 1997 and Everton 2-0 in August 2019.
● Aston Villa have lost five of their last eight away league games (W3), as many as they had in their previous 17 on the road (W7 D5 L5). Meanwhile, the Villans have never won a Premier League away game on a Friday before (D2 L2).
● Ollie Watkins scored three of Aston Villa’s four goals against Arsenal in the Premier League last season, with these goals coming from just five shots on target for the striker.
● Aston Villa boss Dean Smith has won 75% of his Premier League meetings with Arsenal (3/4) – of all managers to have faced the Gunners at least four times in the competition, only Pep Guardiola has a better win rate against them (91%).
● Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored in each of his last three Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium. In total, he’s netted 42 Premier League goals at the Emirates, with only Robin van Persie netting more at the ground in the competition (46).
● In his 23-minute appearance against Crystal Palace last time out, Alexandre Lacazette had more shots on target (2) and created more chances (2) than any other Arsenal player in the match. The Frenchman is averaging a goal or assist every 46 minutes in all competitions this season (3 goals, 1 assist, 185 minutes played).
