PREMIER LEAGUE FRIDAY: The Striker previews LUTON TOWN v EVERTON with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LUTON TOWN V EVERTON
8pm We have Friday Night Football from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week, and it might have a huge impact on the relegation battle too. Luton Town host Everton with time running out for the Hatters to get out of the relegation zone. It looks like the relegation battle is going to go right down to the wire, and now Burnley have given themselves an outside chance of staying up as well. As things stand, we have Nottingham Forest on 26 points, Luton Town on 25 and Burnley on 24. Luton and Forest have an easier run-in compared to Burnley who still have to play Newcastle and Spurs – don’t forget Forest have appealed their points deduction as well.
You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to know every game is a must win game for Luton now. They have been very poor away from home – only Sheffield United have recorded less points away from home this season – so their two home games against Everton and Fulham are going to decide their faith. They bump into Everton at a bad time too; they went 13 games without a win from December to this month but they have broken that in style with four wins from their last five games. All their wins came at home however; their only away game was a 6-0 loss to Chelsea. Everton’s away performances will definitely give Luton hope here, but the reality is Luton have been playing very average football this season.
After last weekend, Luton are only one of two sides with an average xG created under 1.0. Only Sheffield United have created less, and they’ve been nailed to the bottom all season. They haven’t been good at the back either; an average xG conceded of 1.78 is the third worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. There aren’t many positives looking at the Luton stats, but they have battled hard for points all season and that it to their credit. Everton have played much better football, and the only reason they have been hanging around the relegation battle has been their points dedection.
Everton have an average xG created of 1.45 and their conceded is only 0.01 below that; that is pretty much your standard mid-table figures. We have an exceptionally open betting heat here; there’s only two ticks between the sides! Luton Town are the marginal favourites at 2.72 with Everton 2.74 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. When the sides met earlier in the season, Luton recorded a rare 2-1 win but Everton will say that they were very unlucky as they finished with an xG of 2.32. Everything points to a very close game on paper, but I’m not sure I’d have Luton as the marginal favourites.
As I said above, Everton come into this game in their best form of the season. Highlighted recently by a Merseyside Derby win – they would have been buzzing to end Liverpool’s title challenge too! Luton have performed poorly this season and while I know they are in a “need to win” situation – the market always prices that lower than usual – I still strongly feel that they shouldn’t be the favourites here. I’m happy with the Luton lay at 2.72 to have the Everton win and the draw on our side.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Luton Town to beat Everton at 2.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutEve
