PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to WEST HAM v BRENTFORD and LIVERPOOL v LEICESTER in the Premier League on Friday with a match preview, FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V BRENTFORD
7.45pm The Premier League action continues on Friday night with two matches on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. As always, we have a hectic schedule over the Christmas and New Year period. We kick off Friday Night Football with West Ham hosting Brentford in what should be a very interesting game. I’m sure most eyes will be on Liverpool v Leicester who kick off a little later, but West Ham find themselves in trouble and David Moyes could find himself under immense pressure very soon. West Ham have been very poor this season after competing for the European spots over the last two seasons. They took a 1-0 lead into the break against Arsenal on Boxing Day but they were completely outplayed in the second half to lose 3-1. That meant they sat down in 16th place, and there really isn’t much between the bottom sides at the moment. Wolves beating Everton was a massive result on Boxing Day, and if we don’t see a win from West Ham soon they could easily find themselves sitting in the bottom three. Brentford would have been disappointed with their second half too on Boxing Day – they had a 1-0 advantage over Spurs at half-time, then made that 2-0 before having to settle for a 2-2 draw in the end.
Brentford probably would have taken a point off Spurs pre-game without playing if they were offered, but a draw is always disappointing when you are 2-0 up. They played very well though – they finished the game with an xG of over double what Spurs managed and if they play to a similar level here then they will surely get a result. Brentford must be buzzing at the moment though – they went into the World Cup with a win over Manchester City and now picked up points against Spurs. I know they have been much more comfortable at home – you only have to look at their xG figures to see that – but I feel West Ham are much too short here at 2.12. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest and I’m happy to lay the Hammers from a value point of view. They just haven’t been playing good football under Moyes this season, and it looks like he has no back up plan either. Like I said above, the lack of ideas from Moyes is what could get him sacked more so than the results – but obviously the results are very poor too! Brentford have actually created a bigger xG figure than West Ham so far this season, and I feel they get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) West Ham to beat Brentford at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● West Ham’s last win over Brentford in any competition was a 4-0 second tier victory in April 1993, though they’ve only met twice since then (L2).
● Brentford did the league double over West Ham last season, with Yoane Wissa netting a 90th minute winner in a 2-1 victory in this exact fixture.
● Brentford are winless in their last six Premier League London derbies, drawing four and losing two. However, 50% of their victories in such games have come against West Ham (2/4), including the most recent one in April last season.
● West Ham won their final league game of 2021, beating Watford 4-1 at Vicarage Road – they’ve not won their last game in consecutive calendar years since 2007 (vs Man Utd) and 2008 (vs Stoke).
● Brentford have lost their final league game in two of the last three calendar years (W1), going down 1-0 against Manchester City in their last game of 2021.
● West Ham have lost their last two Premier League home games, last having a longer losing run at the London Stadium in November/December 2019 (4 under Manuel Pellegrini).
● Brentford are looking to win consecutive Premier League away games for the third time, previously doing so in October 2021 and April 2022. Both previous occasions of back-to-back away wins included a London derby victory.
● West Ham have lost four consecutive Premier League games, last losing five in a row in March/April 2017 under Slaven Bilic.
● West Ham’s Saïd Benrahma has scored three goals in his last five Premier League appearances, as many as he had in his previous 22. He’s looking to score in consecutive league games for the first time since December 2021.
● Brentford striker Ivan Toney has scored 11 goals in 15 Premier League games this season, just one fewer than he managed in 33 appearances last term. Since the start of last season, his goals have been worth 18 points to the Bees, with only Harry Kane’s strikes being more valuable to their side in that time (23).
LIVERPOOL V LEICESTER
8pm We finish the evening with Liverpool hosting Leicester. Liverpool grabbed all the headlines this week with the surprise signing of Cody Gakpo – it was widely expected the Netherlands International would go to Manchester United to join up with Erik ten Hag but those rumours looked well wide of the mark! It came as a surprise when Liverpool made the announcement to be honest. Liverpool have a lot of work to do as we re-start the season because they dropped so many points before the World Cup. They got off to a winning start with a comfortable 3-1 win away to Aston Villa on Boxing Day, and other results went their way too with Spurs dropping points at Brentford. That leaves Liverpool five points behind Spurs with a game in hand – the race for the Top Four is still very much on. The market is fully expecting a comfortable win again for Liverpool here – they are trading 1.33 at the time of writing. Leicester returned to action with a 3-0 loss at home to Newcastle and got completely outplayed – after sitting in the bottom three for so long and then finally getting themselves out, the World Cup arrived at a bad time for them. It will be interesting to see how they perform over the next few weeks – let’s not judge them on playing Liverpool at Anfield!
It’s very hard to see past a Liverpool win here; I would happily include them in any Betdaq Multiple at 1.33 but I’m going to look around the side markets for a better value price. Leicester have been shipping goals for fun this season, and although they haven’t been creating a lot the fact Liverpool have been so sloppy at the back means this game screams goals to me. The market is thinking along the same lines with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.47. I’m going to keep stakes low here because Leicester have only been creating an average xG of 1.1 this season, but Both Teams To Score looks good value at 1.88. Liverpool have been so sloppy at the back this season, and if they go 2-0 or 3-0 up then they are highly to make the game very open – they are actually conceding an average xG of 1.7 in the Premier League this season which is exceptionally high. It really highlights the issues at the back they have had, and although Leicester have been average this season they can find the net at some stage.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have lost two of their last three Premier League games against Leicester, as many as they had in their previous 17. They did win this exact fixture 2-0 in February last season, however.
● Leicester have lost nine of their last 11 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D2), having won three in a row at Anfield between 1997 and 2000 before this run.
● Liverpool’s last league game of 2021 was a 1-0 defeat at Leicester – they’ve not lost their final league game in consecutive calendar years since 1960/1961, against Middlesbrough and Rotherham while in the second tier.
● Leicester City are looking to win their final league game in consecutive calendar years for the first time since a run of three between 2012 and 2014.
● Liverpool have scored at least once in each of their last 31 Premier League home games (W23 D7 L1), with their only defeat in that time coming against Leeds in October. The last visiting goalkeeper to keep a league clean sheet at Anfield was Fulham’s Alphonse Areola in March 2021.
● Leicester have won their last three Premier League away games, as many as they had in their previous 22 on the road (D6 L13). They’ve won these last three by an aggregate score of 8-0 but have never previously won four in a row on the road without conceding in their league history.
● Liverpool have won three consecutive league games for the first time this season, though they’ve not managed to keep a clean sheet in their last five. Indeed, the Reds have kept just four clean sheets in their 19 Premier League games since the start of May, with only Southampton, Leeds and Aston Villa keeping fewer among ever-present sides in that time.
● Leicester conceded as many goals in their 3-0 defeat against Newcastle last time out as they had in their previous eight Premier League games combined. The last time the Foxes both lost and failed to score in consecutive league games was October 2020.
● Diogo Jota has scored eight goals in his last 10 games against Leicester City in all competitions, including four in four against the Foxes for Liverpool.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored four goals in his last four Premier League games, having netted just three in his first 11 this season. He’s scored 104 left footed goals in Premier League history, just one behind Robbie Fowler’s competition record of 105.
