PREMIER LEAGUE FRIDAY: The Striker previews WOLVES v ASTON VILLA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLVES V ASTON VILLA
8pm We have Friday Night Football from the Premier League to enjoy on Betdaq Betting Exchange as Wolves host Aston Villa! On paper, everyone will be expecting an away win here – Wolves are rock bottom of the Premier League on just ten points from 28 games, and they have only managed one win all season. Aston Villa sit third and will be eyeing a Champions League finish, but they have been massively over-performing this season. Villa fans have been calling Unai Emery the “xG killer” because they’ve got so many wins from low xG figures! For Wolves, the question isn’t whether Wolves are going down, it’s whether they can avoid breaking Derby County’s record for the fewest points in a Premier League season.
It’s no surprise to see Villa come into the game as the odds on favourites; however there are plenty of layers around. Aston Villa are trading 1.97 with Wolves 4.2 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. I know Villa haven’t exactly blown sides away this season, but I wasn’t expecting to see them trading as big as 1.97 when I clicked into the market. Wolves have an average xG created of just 1.11 – that is the second worst attacking figure in the Premier League this season – while their average xG conceded of 1.63 is in the bottom three defensive figures. There really aren’t many positives with Wolves; morale must be very low in the camp given that they are nailed on to go down. That being said, they must have got a little buzz from coming from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Arsenal recently!
Aston Villa have an average xG created of 1.47 which is a mid-table attacking figure in the Premier League. In fairness to them, that figure was in the 1.2 range at one stage and they were sitting in the bottom six attacking figure so obviously it has been increasing. They are creating more chances, even if they are still over-performing. Their average xG conceded of 1.46 is also a mid-table figure; usually when you are creating what you’re conceding that puts you in mid-table in most of Europe’s elite leagues. They have been getting away with a lot at the back this season though. They are clearly the better side here, but those figures do not point to a dominant Top Four side that will blow Wolves away.
All things considered, I do feel Villa are the value bet here but I can’t get carried away on the stakes. Given how little Wolves have created all season and their poor underlying numbers in attack, Villa are likely to not get exposed at the back. Wolves have shown some spark recently though. That little bit of form – including that draw with Arsenal – would give some doubt to taking the 1.97 on Villa but it just feels too big to ignore given how bad Wolves have been this season. Villa are a solid, organised side away from home under Emery, and they can get the job done here – I’m just not going crazy with the stakes.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Aston Villa to beat Wolves at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLWoAs
