FA CUP FRIDAY: The Striker previews WOLVES v LIVERPOOL with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLVES v LIVERPOOL
8pm The FA Cup Fifth Round gets underway on Betdaq Betting Exchange on Friday night! It’s funny how the schedule always throws out these situations every so often, but just four days after meeting in the Premier League at Molineux on Tuesday night, Wolves and Liverpool do it all again. Football can be a funny old game sometimes, and this fixture obviously got way more interesting with Wolves winning 2-1 on Tuesday! The market has pushed out Liverpool – they were trading 1.44 to win on Tuesday night, but they come into the game as the 1.54 favourites with Wolves 6.6 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing.
Wolves come into this game on their best run this season. A draw against Arsenal, a win over Aston Villa and then the Liverpool win on Tuesday. People are even suggesting they could stay up given their fixture list, but that’s exceptionally unlikely. While obviously morale in the camp will be sky high; they have been lucky with those three results. Liverpool finished the game with an xG of over 2.0 and Wolves xG figure was 0.64. It was a massive blow for Liverpool in the Top Four race, but they played god football – it was just one of those nights.
The underlying numbers have made for sobering reading for Wolves for most of the reason. Their average xG created of just 1.08 is the second worst attacking figure in the entire Premier League; their average xG conceded of 1.65 sits in the bottom four defensively too. Compare that to Liverpool who have an average xG created of 1.76 which is the second best attacking figure in the Premier League, and while they have been sloppy at the back at times this season, their average xG conceded is still impressive at 1.25 – actually in the top three defensive figures.
On paper, this is a miss-match, but obviously this has been a season of surprises in England. The FA Cup does have a wonderful way of throwing up upsets, and Wolves will take enormous confidence from the last few games here. There’s always a question mark about how much Arne Slot rotates here – Liverpool have taken a dim view of the domestic Cups in recent years – Jurgen Klopp rarely played a first XI. I would definitely keep stakes low with that in mind. It feels like Liverpool need a Cup run this season though given where they are in the Premier League. I know the result on Tuesday took the headlines, but Liverpool’s performance deserved to win the game, and they can correct it here. I feel the 1.55 is too big and the market has pushed Liverpool out too much. Granted Arne Slot could rest players, so I’m going to keep stakes small here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Liverpool to beat Wolves at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAWoLi
