MONDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews LEEDS v LIVERPOOL with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V LIVERPOOL
8pm We have Monday Night Football in the Premier League this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Leeds host Liverpool. We have two very entertaining sides here, and hopefully we get a high scoring cracker with plenty of drama! Leeds are still in a relegation battle, but after winning two of their last four games they started this matchday with a little cushion – they were two points ahead of Everton and Nottingham Forest just below them. Liverpool have had a number of issues at the back this season, so Leeds will fancy their chances of getting something from this game.
Liverpool put in a superb performance in the second half against Arsenal last weekend. However, in classic Liverpool fashion they had to do it the hard way after conceding twice in the first half. Over the 90 minutes, Liverpool should have won – they finished the game with an xG of 4.40 which is one of the highest figures created in the Premier League this season however they still continue to concede sloppy goals. Their average xG conceded this season is a very high 1.7! That what you usually see from sides in a relegation battle, Leeds are only conceding marginally more chances at an average xG of 1.8.
There’s no getting away from the fact that Liverpool are having a very poor season. Missing out on Champions League football next season will be a massive blow, and the Liverpool owners don’t seem like they want to spend money either. Klopp has had no answers to the issues at the back with this squad, so they need to bring in at least three or four players in summer. Despite all the issues at the back, Liverpool come into this game trading odds on. They are 1.77 at the time of writing, with Leeds trading 4.6 and the draw is 4.4.
Liverpool have thrown in some terrible performances away from home this season, and I really wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.77. I know Leeds have been average themselves, but they have been much better at home. That could be a massive factor to this game, as Leeds have only managed nine points away from home this season. They have created a lot more at home, and played much better. Liverpool have only managed 13 points from their 15 away games this season which is a shocking return for a big club like them.
That stat would really put you off Liverpool at 1.77. I would consider laying them, and indeed I couldn’t put anyone off the lay at the odds. However, this game screams goals to me. We have two attacking side who like to play an open game, as well as the fact that neither can defend well. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.63 and although the market is obviously expecting a reasonably high scoring game, I would have Overs trading closer to 1.5 rather than 1.6 – we should have a very entertaining game here!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leeds United are looking for only their second ever Premier League double over Liverpool, previously achieving that feat in the 2000-01 campaign under David O’Leary.
● Liverpool haven’t lost any of their last five league visits to Elland Road against Leeds (W3 D2) since losing 4-3 in November 2000 with Mark Viduka scoring all four for the Whites.
● Leeds have shipped 10 goals in their three Premier League games in April (W1 L2), more than any other team so far this month. The Whites have kept just five clean sheets in their last 35 league games since recording consecutive shutouts against Watford and Crystal Palace last April.
● Liverpool are averaging 0.87 points-per-game away from home in the Premier League this season (13 pts in 15 away games), their lowest in a campaign since 1992-93 (0.76 – 16 pts in 21 games). The Reds have scored 14 times from 21.6 expected goals on the road this term (-7.6 xG difference), with their 0.93 away goals-per-game their lowest average in a Premier League season.
● In the first half of their 5-1 defeat to Crystal Palace, Leeds had seven shots on target, the most Opta has on record for the Whites in the first half of a league game (2013-14 onwards). In the second half however, the Whites had just one shot and none on target.
● Liverpool are winless in their last five games in all competitions (D2 L3), never before going six without a win under Jürgen Klopp, last doing so in September 2015 with Brendan Rodgers in charge. Klopp last went longer without victory in February 2015 as Borussia Dortmund boss (6).
● In the Premier League this season, Leeds have won all four of their Premier League games when starting the day in the relegation zone. However, they have only won one of their last 23 league games when starting the day outside of the bottom-three (D7 L15), a 4-3 win over Bournemouth in November.
● Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino is averaging a goal or assist every 87 minutes in the Premier League this season (9 goals, 4 assists in 1,129 minutes), the second-best ratio of any player to play at least 500 minutes this season behind Erling Haaland (one every 62 mins).
● Mohamed Salah has seven goals in five Premier League appearances against Leeds for Liverpool, scoring in their 3-0 win at Elland Road last season. No Reds player has more Premier League goals against Leeds than Salah (Robbie Fowler also seven), while only Gordon Hodgson has more in their league history (9).
● Patrick Bamford scored his 50th goal in all competitions for Leeds in their 5-1 loss to Crystal Palace, the first player to hit that figure for the club since Ross McCormack in 2014. He’s looking to score in consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time since May 2021.
