MONDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Newcastle v Leicester with FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
NEWCASTLE V LEICESTER
8pm It’s the final week of the 2022/23 Premier League season, and we kick it off with Monday Night Football on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have a cracking fixture too as Newcastle host Leicester. Newcastle eased the pressure on themselves in the Top Four race with a win over Brighton last week, and now they are very unlikely to miss out on Champions League football next season. That’s a huge boost for Newcastle now they are backed with so much money from Saudi Arabia, and will attract a higher quality type of player to the club.
It’s a very different game for Leicester! They are under immense pressure in the relegation battle, and they kick this game off sitting in the bottom three. Things are looking quite bleak for Leicester but they have benefitted from West Ham reaching the Final of the Europa Conference League last week because they play the Hammers on the final day on Sunday. We could easily plenty of drama on the final day with Everton, Leeds and Leicester all at home. Leicester need a result here though before we even get to the final day!
As you would expect, Newcastle come into the game as the favourites. They are trading heavy odds on at 1.37 with Leicester 8.6 and the draw is 6.0 at the time of writing. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here – Leicester simply haven’t been good enough this season. Their average xG conceded is 1.7 and they have been all over the place at the back. With football the players rarely get the blame, but it’s hard to look past them here. They had a change in management early enough to improve their performance level but they have left it too late in the day to step up in my opinion.
I would say Leicester are playing their best football of the season at the moment, despite only winning once in their last five games. They have created their highest xG figures – 2.94 v Wolves, 2.34 v Leeds, 3.06 v Everton and 3.27 v Fulham were all impressive figures before bumping into Liverpool last Monday. That’s quite the performance jump to be honest, and they’ve left it too late in my opinion if that’s the type of football they could have been achieving. Remember early in the season, the players were arguing between themselves and we all felt there was problems in the dressing room – maybe there has been issues all season.
It’s hard to fault Newcastle, and they fully deserve to finish in the Top Four. Their average xG created is 2.1 this season and they are conceding less than one goal per game in the Premier League this season. Very impressive figures, and they will get plenty of chances here with Leicester so poor at the back. It’s hard to make the case that Newcastle should be a lot shorter than their current 1.37 to be honest. Given Leicester have been creating so many chances recently I feel we’ll see goals here – Over 2.5 goals is 1.52 so the market is expecting goals too, but Both Teams To Score looks a nice price at 1.84. Leicester’s recent xG figures have been impressive, and they can score at some stage with Newcastle running out as winners.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewLcr
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 3-0 win at the King Power Stadium in December, Newcastle are looking to complete their first Premier League double over Leicester since 1994-95.
● Leicester have lost three of their last four Premier League games against Newcastle (W1), more than they had in their previous 10 against them (W8 D0 L2).
● Having played Everton on the 1st, Fulham on the 8th and Liverpool on the 15th this month, Leicester are set to become the first team ever to play a Premier League game on four consecutive Mondays.
● Newcastle have won their final home league game in seven of the last nine seasons, with the exceptions being consecutive defeats against Liverpool in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
● Leicester haven’t won their final away league game in any of the last eight seasons (D3 L5), since beating Huddersfield 2-0 in their 2013-14 promotion campaign in the Championship.
● Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games played on Mondays, beating Arsenal in May 2022 and Leicester in December 2022, as many wins as in their previous 20 top-flight Monday games (W2 D3 L15). The Magpies last won three Monday games in a row in the top division between September 1954 and April 1955 (four).
● Leicester have conceded 41 away league goals in the 2022-23 campaign, their most in a season since letting 44 away goals in during the 2010-11 Championship campaign. In a 38-game campaign, it’s the most they’ve shipped since 1914-15 (47).
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has never lost a home Premier League match against Leicester City (W4 D2), winning the last three in a row against the Foxes. He’s also already beaten the Foxes at St James’ Park this season, winning 2-0 in the League Cup in January.
● James Maddison has been involved in 11 Premier League away goals this season (6 goals, 5 assists) – he’s one of only two Leicester players to both scored five goals and assisted five goals in away Premier League games in a season, along with Riyad Mahrez in 2017-18 (6 goals, 6 assists).
● All three of Leicester manager Dean Smith’s away Premier League games against Newcastle United have ended 1-1, doing so with Aston Villa in 2019-20 and 2020-21 and with Norwich last season. Indeed, two of the six occasions one of his teams has avoided defeat away from home after conceding first has been at St James’ Park (June 2020 with Aston Villa, November 2021 with Norwich).
