PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews NEWCASTLE v WEST HAM with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V WEST HAM
8pm We have Monday Night Football from the Premier League to enjoy this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Newcastle host West Ham. This should be an interesting game; neither side will be happy with their start to the season so far. After reaching the Top Four in 2022/23 and getting Champions League football, Newcastle have been brought back down to earth with a bump since. They’ve faced financial fair play rules, and even had to sell players they didn’t want to during the summer which is never ideal. They finished seventh last season, but I actually feel they’ll finish below that place this season.
Their average xG created is only 1.34 this season which is a low end of mid-table figure. They are conceding more chances than that too, and they are currently getting away with things at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.55 which is in the bottom seven defensive figures, but their actual goals conceded average is only 1.0; quite a difference! The reality for Newcastle is they probably hit the big time too early in their project, the Top Four was definitely “too early” but you couldn’t knock their football that season. Their average xG created was 1.77 which is much higher than their current figure.
West Ham feel like they are in no-mans-land since David Moyes parted ways. As he said at the time, he was probably their most boring manager but also the most successful. We are now reading stories that Julen Lopetegui as two games to save his job already, and that’s after spending big during the summer. West Ham finished last season with an average xG conceded of 1.85 which was the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League. They over-performed in front of goal to stay well away from the relegation fight, but their performance level was poor.
Once again, they’ve been conceding too many chances this season. They have an average xG conceded of 1.6, the sixth worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. It’s actually not far off Newcastle’s though, so that makes this game interesting. Newcastle come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.55 with West Ham 6.6 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. I have to say the 1.55 feels exceptionally short on Newcastle – I know West Ham haven’t been reliable at all this season, but I didn’t expect to see Newcastle trading that short when I clicked into the market.
From a value point of view, I couldn’t put anyone off the Newcastle lay at 1.55 – I expect a closer game than those odds suggest. However, this game also screams goals with both sides so mistake prone at the back, and Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.64 in what should be a pretty open game. That’s a confident bet to start the week!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcWes
