PREMIER LEAGUE MONDAY: The Striker previews Monday’s Premier League clash between NOTTINGHAM FOREST v ASTON VILLA with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats via FACTMAN.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V ASTON VILLA
8pm Another massive Monday night fixture for Nottingham Forest as they host Aston Villa! It was all one way traffic on BETDAQ Betting Exchange last week as Leicester hammered Forest 4-0, and they come into this clash under immense pressure now. In an interesting move, they have appointed Filippo Giraldi as Sporting Director this week – it’s a bit late after signing so many players in the transfer window! One wonders what’s going to happen in the January transfer window! The reality is Nottingham Forest have such a wage bill now that if they go back down to the Championship they are in big trouble.
At the moment it’s looking like they will go back down to the Championship too. They desperately need something to turn things around, and this could be the fixture. Aston Villa are a very average side, and with home advantage Forest will certainly be eyeing this game as a great chance for three points. Villa do come into the game unbeaten in three however; they managed to grind out a surprising draw against Manchester City and then beat Southampton before the International break. They had to settle for a 0-0 last weekend away to Leeds and although the Leeds manager was moaning that Villa wre boring, Villa were actually the better team – they finished the game with an xG of 2.58 and Leeds just managed 0.32.
A similar type of performance from Villa here will likely see them win; the question is are they good enough to put together back-to-back performances like that when that’s not something they usually do? Villa come into the game as favourites and you can fully understand that – Forest have put together five losses in a row since drawing 1-1 with Everton and they have been conceding goals for fun too. Even if we take out the 2-0 loss to Spurs and 6-0 to Man City, they then conceded ten goals in three games to Bournemouth, Fulham and Leicester – three sides discussed as being in the relegation mix too.
To be honest the signs are pretty bad for Nottingham Forest. Their stats are woeful and surely raise the alarm – at the moment they are conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game but their xG is still 2.0 – even though they are conceding more than just technically should the 2.0 is still a very bad figure. Couple that with the fact they are only creating an xG of 1.2 and scoring even less – their actual is only 0.8 you can see why they are odds on to go back down this season. They made a very promising start and then with all the signings hopes were high, but it’s been a disaster so far really.
Long-term readers will know that I’m not a big fan of Aston Villa. I feel like Steven Gerrard hasn’t improved them since coming in, and they have basically stayed the same average side for a while now. They are your classic side that are too good to be in a relegation battle but not good enough to reach the top half of the table. They will likely finish in or around 14th again this season to be honest. However, when you look at the underlining numbers they really should be getting three points here.
They have put together three decent performances too. OK, City were all over them but they managed to hang on which is no mean feat against City at the moment – especially with the form Haaland is in! Then they were comfortable against Southampton creating an xG over three times what they conceded and obviously played very well against Leeds in a game they should have won. I know Villa generally don’t create many chances, but Nottingham Forest are so poor at the back they will give Villa chances to score here. I won’t go mad on staking because Villa aren’t really a side that you can rely on, but they really should be winning this game and the 2.2 is big enough to take.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotAst
⚠️ CHECK FACTMAN STATS ON FOREST v VILLA
