THE STRIKER: previews Monday’s three Premier League games. Brighton v Newcastle, Sheffield United v Everton and Wolves v Crystal Palace – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BRIGHTON V NEWCASTLE
6pm We have three Premier League games to enjoy for Monday night football this week and we start with Brighton hosting Newcastle. Brighton are only six points ahead of Bournemouth and Aston Villa but they are more or less certain to stay up bar some truly incredible scenes. They can enjoy their final two games after getting a point against Southampton here last Thursday. Newcastle have lost their last three and this will be a very interesting game with a view to next season.
Given the situation around the world, the transfer market won’t be a usual one. But I think Newcastle need to change. xG puts them rock bottom this season, even lower than Norwich. They need to solve their issues at the back and that has been the main driver for xG having them last. They will concede a tonne of goals if they continue because the figures always revert to the mean eventually. They were unlucky to lose 3-1 to Spurs, but Watford battered them in their last away game racking up an xG of 3.42 and Brighton are worth having a small bet on at 1.93.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brighton to beat Newcastle at 1.93 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQbrinew
MATCH STATS
- Brighton are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League meetings with Newcastle (W2 D3) – they’ve only faced West Ham more often in the competition without defeat (6).
- Newcastle have won just one of their last seven away games against Brighton in all competitions (D2 L4), winning 2-1 in the Championship in February 2017.
- The five Premier League meetings between Brighton and Newcastle have produced just four goals (3 for Brighton, 1 for Newcastle), with neither side scoring more than once in a match.
- Brighton have lost their last three home league games, conceding at least three goals in each game (11 in total) and scoring just once. The Seagulls had only conceded 3+ goals in three of their previous 41 home games in the Premier League.
- Newcastle have only won their final away game in two of their 24 Premier League seasons (D9 L13), beating QPR in 2012-13 and winning 4-0 at Fulham last season.
- Brighton have scored more than once in just one of their last 11 league games (seven goals in total) – in their 2-1 victory over Arsenal at the Amex Stadium last month.
- Newcastle have lost their last three Premier League matches, shipping 10 goals across those defeats. They haven’t lost four in a row since May 2018.
- As a coach, Graham Potter has an 8% win rate against English managers in Premier League games (P13 W1 D7 L5), while he has won 30% of his games against non-Englishmen in the competition (P23 W7 D6 L10).
- Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin has completed 116 dribbles in the Premier League this season, the most by a Frenchman in a Premier League season since David Ginola in 1999-00 (131).
- Newcastle have allowed 19.7 opposition passes per defensive action on average in the Premier League this campaign (PPDA), the most of any side and over eight more than opponents Brighton (11.6).
SHEFFIELD UNITED V EVERTON
6pm This is a big game for Sheffield United in their bid for European football next season. Their loss against Leicester last time out has left them in a poor position and now they need to win their final two games and hope for results to go their way with the others. They were poor last time out against Leicester, especially as Leicester haven’t been playing very well since returning from lockdown. However, they are fortunate to meet an Everton side who have nothing to play for and aren’t putting in good xG numbers.
Their performance at home in their last game against Villa was poor, they were deservedly beaten 3-0 by Wolves and Southampton should have beaten them here before that, and prior to that they only created an xG of 0.54 against Spurs. Sheffield United had put in some improved performances prior to losing against Leicester and with home advantage here in a must win game, they are worth a small bet against an out-of-form Everton side.
The Striker Says:
One point win Sheffield United to beat Everton at 2.2 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSheeve
MATCH STATS
- Sheffield United won the reverse fixture against Everton 2-0 in September, their first league victory against the Toffees since they did the double over them in 1992-93.
- Everton haven’t won away against Sheffield United in the league since October 1972, though six of their eight visits since then have ended level (L2).
- Sheffield United are looking to secure five consecutive Premier League home wins, something they’ve not done in the top-flight since a run of six in March 1991.
- Everton haven’t won their final away league game in any of the last four Premier League seasons (D1 L3), last doing so in 2014-15 against West Ham (2-1).
- Sheffield United have conceded just one goal in their last four Premier League games at Bramall Lane, with clean sheets in each of their last two. They haven’t recorded three successive shutouts at home in the top-flight since March 1993.
- Everton have lost 11 away Premier League games this season, their most since 2003-04 (also 11), while the Toffees haven’t lost more than 11 in a season since 2000-01 under Walter Smith (13).
- Lucas Digne has created 70 chances in the Premier League this season, at least 23 more than any teammate, while only Trent Alexander-Arnold (85) betters him league-wide amongst all defenders. 45 of the 70 chances have come directly from crosses.
- Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has never lost a Premier League game against a newly promoted side in 14 previous such matches (W10 D4) – this is the most any manager has faced promoted clubs without tasting defeat in the competition.
- Sheffield United’s Dean Henderson is looking to become the first goalkeeper to record 14 clean sheets for a promoted top-flight side since Swansea’s Michel Vorm in 2011-12 (14). In fact, only Edwin van der Sar (15 for Fulham in 2001-02) has ever kept 15+ clean sheets for a promoted club in a 38-game Premier League season.
- Enda Stevens has played a part in 101 open play sequences which have ended with Sheffield United having a shot in the Premier League this campaign, the most of any Blades player and 30 more than his wing-back partner George Baldock (71).
WOLVES V CRYSTAL PALACE
8.15pm We end the day with Wolves hosting Crystal Palace in a game that they should win. Wolves are in a good position to finish 6th, but they need to keep winning. They face a Palace side who have lost their last six and apart from the 1-0 loss to Burnley, they can’t argue with any of them. Palace have had issues scoring all season, but since coming back from lockdown they have been conceding too many and that has been their problem. If you build your game on being solid at the back and that stops, you’re in trouble.
Of course, Palace have been enjoying mid-table positioning pretty much all season, and when they returned from lockdown they had nothing to achieve, no European football nor relegation battle. It’s sides like this who end up “on the beach” early as they say! Wolves have been impressive this season and they are worth backing at 1.51 here against a poor Palace side.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Wolves to beat Crystal Palace at 1.51 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwolcry
MATCH STATS
- Wolves have won just one of their last five league meetings with Crystal Palace (D1 L3), having won each of their previous three against them before this run.
- Crystal Palace have won three of their last four away league games against Wolves (L1) including each of their last two – they’ve never won three in a row at Molineux in their league history.
- Having won back-to-back home Premier League games on five occasions last season, Wolves are looking to win consecutive matches at Molineux for the first time in 2019-20.
- Crystal Palace have lost their last six Premier League matches, failing to score in five of those fixtures. Their manager, Roy Hodgson, has never previously suffered seven consecutive defeats in the competition, while the Eagles last did so in September 2017 (eight in a row).
- Excluding own goals, Wolves are the only team in the Premier League yet to have an English scorer this season. In Premier League history – again excluding own goals – Wolves have the lowest percentage of goals scored by Englishmen – just 18.9% (46/243).
- Wolves have scored 73.5% of their Premier League goals this season in the second half – the only teams to have scored a higher such percentage in a season are Portsmouth and Stoke in 2008-09 (both 73.7%) and Reading in 2007-08 (75.6%).
- Luka Milivojevic has picked up 12 yellows cards in the Premier League this season, more than any other player and the most-ever by a Crystal Palace player in a single season in the competition.
- Raúl Jiménez has scored 26 goals in all competitions for Wolves this season – the last player to score more in a season for the club was Steve Bull in the 1990-91 season (27 goals).
- Crystal Palace forward Wilfried Zaha has attempted 233 take-ons in the opposition’s half this season and 42 in the opposition’s box – both Premier League highs in 2019-20. Despite this, none have ended with Zaha scoring a goal and only one has resulted in him assisting a goal for the Eagles.
- Wolves winger Adama Traoré has completed 174 dribbles in the Premier League this season, the most in a season since Eden Hazard completed 180 in Chelsea’s 2014-15 title-winning side.
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