THE STRIKER: previews Monday’s three Premier League matches, all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
CRYSTAL PALACE V LEICESTER
3pm We have a fascinating afternoon of Premier League action on Monday and we have three very competitive markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start with Crystal Palace hosting Leicester, with my strongest bet of the day coming first! I really fancy Leicester here at 2.12 – I feel that they should be odds on. Crystal Palace have conceded ten goals in two games, and although one of those came against the excellent Liverpool they were particularly bad on Boxing Day against Aston Villa. They only lost 3-0, I say only because they gave up an xG of 4.8, so it could have been much worse.
Leicester don’t look like a “title challenger” despite being in the top three and in a battle at the top of the table; but they are playing good enough to put away this Palace side. They have had some wins against minor sides like Sheffield United and Brighton, but they impressed me in their 2-0 win away to an in-form Spurs side and then they played out a pretty even 2-2 draw against Man United. Palace continue to create chances and with Leicester creating a lot, they will outscore this Palace side – I feel the 2.12 is massive.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Leicester to beat Crystal Palace at 2.12 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrylcr
MATCH STATS
- After winning four consecutive league games against Leicester between 2017-2019 by an aggregate score of 13-1, Crystal Palace have lost their last two against the Foxes without scoring (5 conceded).
- Leicester won this exact fixture 2-0 last season – they last won consecutive away league games against Crystal Palace in April 1998.
- Leicester have won their last two Premier League games in London, beating Arsenal 1-0 and Tottenham 2-0 this season. The Foxes haven’t won three consecutive top-flight games in the capital since April 1966.
- Crystal Palace haven’t won their final league game in any of the last eight calendar years (D6 L2), last doing so against Millwall in the Championship in 2011 (1-0).
- Leicester have lost their final league game in two of the last three calendar years (2017 v Liverpool, 2018 v Cardiff), more than they had in the previous 10 years (W6 D3 L1).
- Crystal Palace lost 0-7 in their last home league game against Liverpool, shipping as many goals in that defeat as they had in their previous six Premier League games at Selhurst Park combined.
- Leicester have won six of their seven Premier League away games this season (L1), just one fewer than they won on the road in the whole of 2019-20 (W7 D4 L8).
- Crystal Palace have kept just one clean sheet in their last 23 Premier League games, conceding in each of their last 14 in the competition since beating Southampton 1-0 on the opening day.
- Leicester’s Harvey Barnes has scored seven goals in 20 games in all competitions this season – as many as he netted in 42 appearances for the Foxes last term.
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored 19 goals in his last 19 Premier League away games. Vardy has also scored nine goals in his last 12 Premier League appearances in London, netting the Foxes’ winners against Tottenham and Arsenal this season.
CHELSEA V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm This is a truly fascinating match from a betting point of view. Chelsea are going through a mini-crisis with three losses in four games while Aston Villa have been playing some superb football. Chelsea look more than a little short at 1.75 and I feel that there will be a lot of layers at that price. Aston Villa have been excellent this season – you only have to look at their xG figures to see that. We have landed some very nice touches on them against West Brom and Crystal Palace, and we can land a Chelsea lay here in my opinion.
Even in the two recent games Aston Villa lost they were unlucky. They lost 2-1 wto West Ham but had an xG of 2.72 to 0.59 for example. They created an xG of 4.8 against Palace and 2.45 against West Brom. Chelsea have been impressive going forward this season, but they still have their issues at the back and with Villa playing some excellent attacking football I feel they can score once or twice here to make Chelsea’s evening very difficult. I wouldn’t have Chelsea as short at 1.75 and they are a very appealing lay from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Aston Villa at 1.75 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcheavl
MATCH STATS
- Chelsea have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games against Aston Villa (L1), including their last six in a row. They’ve netted 31 goals in that run, conceding just eight in return.
- Aston Villa haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 19 Premier League away games against Chelsea (W2 D3 L14) since a 1-0 win in March 1998.
- Aston Villa have won two of their three Premier League games in London this season, though their only defeat on the road this term came in the capital (1-2 vs West Ham). Only in 1992-93 (3), 1995-96 (3) and 2008-09 (3) have the Villans won more Premier League games in London in a single campaign.
- Chelsea have lost their final league game in just one of the last 17 calendar years (W12 D4), though that was their last home league loss against Aston Villa (1-3 in 2011).
- Aston Villa have won their final league game in just one of their last eight calendar years (D4 L3), winning 1-0 at Middlesbrough in 2017. Their last such Premier League victory was in 2011, in a 3-1 victory against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
- Chelsea have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games (W10 D2), going down 0-2 against Liverpool earlier this season. When scoring at least once, the Blues have lost just one of their last 39 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge (1-2 vs Liverpool in September 2019).
- Aston Villa have kept more clean sheets than any other Premier League side this season (8). The Villans are looking to record five consecutive top-flight shutouts for the first time since September 1998 under John Gregory.
- Aston Villa have won five of their six Premier League away games this season (L1), last winning more in a single top-flight campaign in 2009-10 (9).
- Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud has scored in each of his last six Premier League appearances against Aston Villa, netting eight goals in total in this run. Against no side has the Frenchman scored more Premier League goals than he has vs the Villans (8).
- Aston Villa’s Anwar El-Ghazi has scored four goals in his last four Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 37 appearances in the competition.
EVERTON V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We finish the day with another intriguing game! Everton grinded out a 1-0 win over Sheffield United on Boxing Day and after recent wins against Chelsea, Leicester and Arsenal that left them sitting in second place in the table. With everyone already dropping a lot of points this season, they can dream of European football but the reality is they’ll have to start playing better football if they want to finish in the Top Four. Even in their 1-0 win over Sheffield United, the game actually finished with an xG of 1.13 to 0.60 in favour of Sheffield United.
My problem with this game is I feel Man City should win, but they are too short to back at 1.53. That’s a very short price considering they haven’t ben banging in goals for fun this season. You only have to look at their xG figures to see they have issues creating chances this season, and that is where their upsets have come from. For me the value is with under 2.5 goals at 2.3. City haven’t been scoring a lot lately, and Everton aren’t creating much either. They have had a good run of results lately, but I can see them being extra cagey against City and I feel unders should be shorter.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevrmci
MATCH STATS
- Everton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Manchester City (D4 L9), winning 4-0 in January 2017 at Goodison Park.
- Manchester City have won each of their last five Premier League games against Everton, netting at least twice each time. It’s their longest ever winning run against the Toffees in the top-flight.
- Everton won their final Premier League game of 2019, beating Newcastle 2-1 at St James’ Park. They have not won their final league game in consecutive calendar years since 2008 (vs Sunderland) and 2009 (vs Burnley).
- Manchester City have lost their final league game in just one of the last 19 calendar years (W9 D9), with that defeat coming on Merseyside at the hands of Liverpool in 2016 (0-1).
- Everton have won their last two Premier League home games, beating Chelsea 1-0 and Arsenal 2-1. They last won three consecutively at Goodison Park between March-September 2019, a run of six that began with victories against Chelsea and Arsenal (beating Man Utd in the third game).
- Manchester City have scored just four goals in their last six Premier League away games (W2 D3 L1), and never more than once in a match in that run. The Citizens had netted 12 goals in their previous three on the road in the competition (W3).
- Everton have won their last four Premier League games and are looking to win five in a row in the competition for the first time since April 2014 (7).
- Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has scored more Premier League goals against Everton (7) than he has versus any other side in the competition. The Brazilian has netted in each of his last five games against the Toffees in the competition – no-one has ever scored in six consecutive Premier League games against them (Les Ferdinand and Ian Wright also 5).
- Everton’s Gylfi Sigurdsson has been involved in four goals in 14 Premier League games this season (2 goals, 2 assists), just one fewer than he had in 35 appearances last term. Both of his league goals this season have been the winning goal for the Toffees.
- Since Pep Guardiola took charge of Man City in 2016, Raheem Sterling has been involved in more goals in all competitions than any other player at the club, with his assist against Newcastle last time out his 150th goal involvement under the Spaniard (96 goals, 54 assists).
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