THE STRIKER: previews Monday’s two Premier League games with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action starts at 6pm with WEST BROM V SOUTHAMPTON followed by BRIGHTON V EVERTON at 8.15pm.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WEST BROM V SOUTHAMPTON
6pm We have another excellent night of Premier League action on Monday! At the moment, it feels like we have football every day with the big Champions League and Europa League games midweek too. We start Monday Night Football with West Brom hosting Southampton. This might not be the most glamorous fixture, but it’s an interesting game from a betting point of view on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. West Brom managed to beat Chelsea 5-2 last weekend in a result that would have come as a shock to most football fans, and the question tonight is can they follow up that performance against a Southampton side struggling a little at the moment?
Southampton won last weekend too, and although they scored three times it was still a little worrying they conceded twice against Burnley. Southampton have been giving up too many chances this season, but as I said last weekend even though they are on somewhat of a disappointing run, their performances haven’t been that bad. West Brom have given away a host of chances recently, they conceded an xG of 3.28 in a 1-0 win over Brighton at the end of February in a game where it’s hard to explain how they won! They gave up an xG of 2.72 against Chelsea and I think we will see goals here. I feel the Southampton price looks very fair at 2.26 and I would suggest that’s pretty spot on – I wouldn’t have them odds on but they should win. I think over 2.5 goals is worth backing 2.05 or bigger – if we get an early goal we could see a very open game, and we should see plenty of mistakes from both sides at the back too.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.05 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbasou
MATCH STATS
- West Bromwich Albion have lost their last four Premier League matches against Southampton, as many as in their first 13 against the Saints in the competition (W5 D4 L4).
- Southampton are looking to win three consecutive away league games against West Brom for the first time, having beaten them in 2016-17 and 2017-18.
- All four of West Brom’s Premier League wins this season have come on Saturdays – on the other days of the week this term, their record is P18 W0 D6 L12.
- Southampton have won just two of their last 16 Premier League games on Monday (D6 L8), though both of those victories came this season (2-1 v Brighton, 1-0 v Liverpool).
- West Brom won 5-2 at Chelsea last time out, netting as many goals in that victory as they had in their previous 10 Premier League games combined. The Baggies last won consecutive top-flight games in May 2018.
- West Brom have failed to score in six of their nine home league games under Sam Allardyce (W1 D3 L5), though the Baggies are unbeaten in the three home games in which they have found the net under Allardyce (W1 D2).
- Southampton came from 2-0 down to beat Burnley 3-2 last time out, and are looking for consecutive league victories for the first time since December.
- Over half of West Brom boss Sam Allardyce’s Premier League matches against Southampton have ended as a draw (10/18), with the other eight split between four wins and four defeats. Allardyce has only won one of his last nine against the Saints (D5 L3).
- Matheus Pereira had a hand in four of West Brom’s five goals in their victory against Chelsea last time out (2 goals, 2 assists), as many as he had in his previous 14 appearances in the competition (4 goals).
- Nathan Redmond has been involved in five goals in his last two games in all competitions for Southampton (3 goals, 2 assists), as many as he had in his previous 30 appearances (1 goal, 4 assists).
BRIGHTON V EVERTON
8.15pm This is a fascinating betting heat! Brighton are currently in a relegation battle, but they are playing some wonderful football. It’s hard to believe that they are where they are in the table, and with a few bad results that they could actually go down. They were in 5th for a while on the xG table, but they have actually moved up to the Top Four in that table now. Remarkable. It’s fair to say that they have been playing their best football of the season lately; I felt they could get a result against Man United last weekend but they lost 2-1 in a close game. Meanwhile, Everton threw away an excellent chance to get back into the mix for the actual Top Four with a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace.
Although on paper that draw was bitterly disappointing, they created an xG of 2.83 and they couldn’t have played much better. It was just one of those games. We have landed some nice bets on Brighton against Newcastle in particular, but I feel they are too short tonight. I know that they have been playing well, but so have Everton and I can’t have Everton as big as 3.45 tonight. It’s very tempting to lay Brighton and have the draw on my side too, but Everton offer a lot of value at the odds in my opinion and I have to back them. On paper they look in poor form, but they should have beaten Burnley when they lost 2-1 and as I said above, they should have easily beaten Crystal Palace. Perhaps the luck will be on their side tonight but we should have an excellent game – Everton are the value for me.
The Striker Says:
One point win Everton to beat Brighton at 3.45 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbhaeve
MATCH STATS
- Brighton are unbeaten in all three home Premier League matches against Everton (W2 D1), last losing at home to the Toffees in the top-flight in 1982-83.
- The home team has won six of the seven Premier League meetings between Brighton and Everton since a 1-1 draw in October 2017.
- Brighton have won none of their nine Premier League games played on Mondays (D6 L3) – only three clubs have played more games on a specific day of the week in the competition without ever winning; West Brom on Tuesday (32), Norwich on Tuesday (14) and Hull on Monday (10).
- Brighton have won two of their last five Premier League home games (D1 L2), as many as they had in their previous 23 at the Amex Stadium. The Seagulls are looking to pick up back-to-back home league wins for the first time since a run of three in November 2019, the second of which was against Everton.
- Everton lost their last Premier League away game 0-2 against Chelsea, ending a run of nine games without defeat on the road (W7 D2).
- Brighton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this season coming into this round of games (20), with the Seagulls losing against Man Utd having opened the scoring last time out.
- Everton have scored a league-high 12 headed goals in the Premier League this season, while Brighton have conceded the highest proportion of headed goals in the competition this term (24% – 9/38).
- Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has been involved in more Premier League goals against Everton than he has versus any other side (8 – 4 goals, 4 assists). His four goals against them have come with three different clubs (Sunderland, Man Utd, Arsenal).
- Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored in his last two Premier League games, last finding the net in three straight appearances back in January 2014 with Manchester United.
- Only Dominic Calvert-Lewin (14 goals) has been involved in more Premier League goals for Everton this season than James Rodríguez (10 – 6 goals, 4 assists). However, eight of those 10 goal involvements have come at Goodison Park.
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