THE STRIKER: previews Monday’s Premier League action with extended stats and a recommended bet. We’re underway at 5.30pm with BURNLEY v CRYSTAL PALACE followed by WOLVES v SOUTHAMPTON at 8pm.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BURNLEY V CRYSTAL PALACE
5.30pm An interesting evening ahead for Monday Night Football this week and we have two pretty open markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the evening with Burnley hosting Crystal Palace with the home side under pressure down in the relegation zone. In fairness to Burnley, they have games in hand so they shouldn’t panic, but it’s never a nice place to be regardless of it being early in the season. Palace have been pretty solid this season, and it’s not a surprise to see such an open market. Burnley are slight favourites, but you can make a case for both sides here.
Burnley have only managed two draws from their seven games and when you look at their xG numbers you can see why. They have been unlucky they just haven’t created enough chances to win games. They have performed ok against the likes of Leicester and Spurs, but they just aren’t getting results. Palace have had an up-and-down season already but they too haven’t created a lot of chances. They managed to score four against Leeds before the International break but they have had an xG lower than 1 in four of their eight games. I think we’ll have a very close and cagey affair here without many chances, and under 1.5 goals is worth a small investment at 2.82.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 1.5 goals at 2.82 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQburcrl
MATCH STATS
- Burnley won their last Premier League meeting with Crystal Palace (1-0 in June), ending a run of four straight league defeats against the Eagles.
- Crystal Palace have won three and lost two of their five Premier League away games against Burnley, winning the last two. Turf Moor is one of just three away grounds Crystal Palace have visited at least five times in the Premier League where they’ve won more games than they’ve lost (also Bet365 Stadium and Vitality Stadium).
- Burnley are winless in their seven Premier League games so far this season (D2 L5), losing all three at Turf Moor. They’ve not failed to win any of their opening eight games to a league campaign since 2014-15, while they’ve never lost their first four at Turf Moor in a season before.
- Crystal Palace have won four of their eight Premier League games so far this season (D1 L3), as many as they had in their final 19 of 2019-20 (W4 D5 L10). The Eagles have netted 3+ goals in two of their eight league games this term, having failed to do so once last season.
- Burnley have scored fewer goals (3) and had fewer shots on target (19) than any other Premier League side this season, while they’re the only side yet to find the net at home so far in 2020-21.
- Burnley have played 20% of their Premier League passes long this season, the highest ratio in the division. The Clarets have also had fewer open play sequences of 10+ passes than any other side so far this term (34).
- Crystal Palace have scored eight first-half goals in the Premier League this season, the second highest figure with only three teams netting more (Liverpool, Southampton and Spurs, 10). In the whole of last season, the Eagles scored just 10 times before half-time in the Premier League.
- Despite their low position in the table, Burnley have the second lowest expected goals against figure in the Premier League this season (7.5), behind only Chelsea (7.4). This means the Clarets have conceded around five goals more than would be expected based on the quality of chances they’ve faced (12 goals conceded).
- No player has made more drives into the box (taking the ball into the opponent’s area following a successful take-on) than Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha this season (4). Zaha has also created the joint-most chances following a successful take-on in the competition this season (3).
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has seven goal involvements in his eight Premier League games this season (5 goals, 2 assists), as many as he managed in 38 games in the competition last season (4 goals, 3 assists).
WOLVES V SOUTHAMPTON
8pm This should be an excellent game, and fascinating to see who comes out on top. Southampton have been excellent this season, and enjoyed being top of the Premier League for a few hours before the International break. They tweeted “STOP THE COUNT” like Donald Trump which was excellent value! They look like a side full of confidence and they have an excellent chance of getting something here against a Wolves side who have been lacking in goals so far this season.
Wolves have been grinding out results which is a credit to them but they have also been lucky at times. For example they beat Leeds 1-0, but lost 1.29 to 0.48 on xG. They aren’t creating enough chances to put games to bed and with Southampton full of confidence, I feel Wolves are too short here at 2.38. Southampton were excellent away from home last season too, and granted the lack of crowds takes away the home/away angle, I still feel Wolves are at least ten ticks too short here and I’m very happy to lay them.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Southampton at 2.38 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwolsth
MATCH STATS
- Wolves have lost just one of their last eight league meetings with Southampton (W4 D3), going down 1-3 at St Mary’s in April 2019.
- Southampton haven’t won any of their last four away league games against Wolves (D2 L2), since a 6-0 win at Molineux in the Championship in March 2007.
- Wolves are yet to score more than twice in a Premier League match so far this season, with bottom two sides Burnley and Sheffield United the only other sides yet to do so.
- Wolves have kept more Premier League clean sheets than any other side so far in 2020 (13). However, they’ve only won two of their 13 games in which they’ve conceded this calendar year (D3 L8), winning none of their five at home (D2 L3).
- Southampton are looking to win four consecutive Premier League games for the first time since May 2016. Indeed, only Tottenham (7) are on a longer current unbeaten run in the top-flight than Saints (6).
- Only Burnley’s Premier League games have seen fewer goals (15) than Wolves’ so far this season (17), with Wolves having scored eight and conceded nine in their eight games.
- No side has scored more first-half goals in the Premier League this season than Southampton, with Saints’ 10 goals before half-time more than opponents Wolves in total so far this term (8).
- Since their promotion to the Premier League in 2018, only Mohamed Salah (17) has scored more winning goals in the competition than Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez (14).
- Southampton’s Theo Walcott made his senior club debut as a 16-year-old against Wolves back in August 2005. He’s waiting for his first Saints goal since November 2005 (vs Luton), but has assisted two goals in his three Premier League games since returning to the club.
- Southampton’s Che Adams has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games, just one fewer than he’d netted in his first 34 appearances in the competition (4).
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