FA CUP MONDAY: The Striker previews WEST HAM v BRENTFORD with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V BRENTFORD
7.30pm We finish the FA Cup Fifth Round on Betdaq Betting Exchange with an all Premier League clash on Monday night! West Ham host Brentford at the London Stadium at the start of a massive week of sport – the Cheltenham Festival will take centre stage this week along with the Last 16 of the Champions League kicking off too. This is a huge game for both sides with a place in the Quarter-Finals up for grabs. Brentford are having a superb time in the Premier League at the moment, while West Ham will come into this game buzzing after a much needed win at the weekend. They looked nailed on for relegation, but they are now level on points with Nottingham Forest and only one point behind Spurs.
Both sides have had an easy run on paper to get here. West Ham beat QPR and Burton Albion, while Brentford edged past Sheffield Wednesday and then had a nervy 1-0 win over non-league giant killers Macclesfield (look away Crystal Palace fans!) in the Fourth Round. You could make a strong argument that both clubs’ priorities lie in the league, but surely we won’t see any players rested here – getting to the FA Cup Quarter-Final is still huge for clubs this size. We have a reasonably open betting heat – Brentford come into the game as the favourites at 2.4 with West Ham 3.1 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing.
The underlying numbers make for interesting reading here. West Ham have an average xG created of just 1.21 – that’s the fourth worst attacking figure in the Premier League. However, they have found some form in front of goal recently, and we can’t discount that. Their average xG conceded of 1.75 is the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League, and that’s probably the more concerning figure. They have kept three clean sheets from their last five games though – against Fulham at the weekend, Bournemouth and Burnley. Has Nuno finally made some progress with West Ham at the back? They’ve been leaking a tonne of chances since David Moyes left.
Brentford are obviously having a dream season – they sit seventh place in the Premier League, and an outside chance at a Europa Conference League spot which would be incredible really. They traded a short price for relegation this season after the start they had too. Obviously morale is sky high, but they are over-performing. Their average xG created of 1.27 is in the bottom five attacking figures in the Premier League – not far off West Ham! Their average xG conceded of 1.47 is in the bottom half defensively too. Keith Andrews has done a remarkable job this season, punching well above their weight, but there will be some regression at some point. We’ve seen that with Aston Villa recently – I know fans can chant that the likes of Unai Enery is the xG killer, but performance levels always tell the story and eventually your results reflect that.
Brentford’s away form in general has been excellent, and their under-lining numbers are still better than West Ham, so I have no issue with them being favourites here. Michael Kayode down the right has been one of the most exciting full-backs in the Premier League this season, and they have genuine quality throughout the squad. Igor Thiago will be a real threat to a leaky West Ham defence. I feel we’ll have an entertaining game here – West Ham are playing a much better attacking game recently and obviously Brentford have had a lot of over games too. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.78 and that looks cracking value. I’m happy to start the week with a confident bet!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAWhBr
