FA CUP SATURDAY: The Striker previews MANSFIELD TOWN v ARSENAL, WREXHAM v CHELSEA and NEWCASTLE v MANCHESTER CITY all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANSFIELD TOWN V ARSENAL
12.15pm The FA Cup Fifth Round continues on Betdaq Betting Exchange with a cracking Saturday! The highlight of the round looks to be Newcastle hosting Manchester City on Saturday night, but we have plenty of storylines from the three fixtures today. We kick off the day with a real David v Goliath fixture as League One Mansfield Town host Arsenal. The gulf in class here is massive, and it’s no surprise that Arsenal come into the game as the red-hot favourites. Arsenal are trading as short as 1.09 with Mansfield Town 30.0 and the draw is 16.0 at the time of writing. Arsenal come into this tie buzzing after the midweek Premier League games – Bukayo Saka marked his 300th Arsenal appearance in style, scoring the decisive goal in a 1-0 win over Brighton. And then, just as the final whistle blew, news filtered through that Manchester City had dropped two points at home to Nottingham Forest – a result that sent Arsenal seven points clear at the top of the Premier League. Just as City were putting on the pressure; they eased it with that result again Forest – another superb week to be a Gunner!
You’d have to say that Arteta will be very tempted to rest some players here, especially with the Champions League Last 16 coming up too. The 1.09 on Arsenal is the shortest price of the Fifth Round. Mansfield’s run to the Fifth Round has been nothing short of sensational, but it’s very hard to see it continuing here! Obviously there’s no prizes for tipping 1.09 shots, so we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Arsenal have been superb this season – their average xG created of 1.69 is the fourth best attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of just 0.91 is the best defensive figure – those are actually the best defensive figures in Europe. Obviously this is a game for small stakes given I do expect Arteta to rest players, but I like Arsenal to keep a clean sheet on the way to winning here. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.54 and that looks a nice bet to start the day. The market is expecting goals because Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.3, but it’s also expecting Arsenal to do all the work!
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAMaAr
WREXHAM V CHELSEA
5.45pm Are we calling this the Hollywood tie of the FA Cup Fifth Round? Wrexham host Chelsea and as always, all the cameras will be on Wrexham! Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney took over Wrexham in February 2021 and what they have achieved since has been fantastic – they did get a little stick over the reaction to when the draw was made but that’s the game isn’t it. Three consecutive promotions from the National League all the way up to the Championship, where they now sit in sixth place in the playoff positions, chasing a fourth successive promotion to the Premier League – it’s quite the story! This is exactly the kind of fixture their story was built for. Wrexham’s FA Cup run has had its own magic too. They knocked out Premier League side Nottingham Forest on penalties in the third round, before edging past Championship rivals Ipswich Town in the fourth round. They have been over-performing in the Championship this season though – their average xG created is only 1.31 which is actually closer to the relegation battle than the promotion battle! You’d have to fancy Chelsea here, and it’s no surprise that they come into the game as the favourites at 1.44 with Wrexham 7.8 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing.
On paper, it’s hard to see past Chelsea here. Their average xG created of 1.59 is the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.29 is also a respectable figure. Liam Rosenior has built a happy, confident dressing room since taking the job, and Chelsea recorded a massive win midweek – winning 4-1 away to Aston Villa; a massive result in the Top Four race. Wrexham have obviously played well this week, and the atmosphere will be impressive, but I actually feel it terms of quality the 1.44 looks a little big on Chelsea. I would happily include them in any weekend Acca. Wrexham have been conceding a lot of chances this season – their average xG conceded is 1.51 which is the fifth worst defensive figure in the Championship. I feel Chelsea can cover the handicap on the way to winning here, and they are worth backing at 2.1 -1.5 goals in my opinion. Chelsea have been banging in the goals for fun recently.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea -1.5 goals to beat Wrexham at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FAWrCh
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We finish Saturday with the tie of the Fifth Round as Newcastle host Manchester City. What a week for these two sides, and for different reasons. Joy for Newcastle who beat Manchester United with a superb goal in injury time, and heartbreak for Manchester City who dropped two crucial points at home against Nottingham Forest, twice taking the lead before finishing 2-2. Just as City were putting pressure on Arsenal, they throw in a result like that to take all the wind from the sails. St James’ Park is always rocking, but you have to feel the atmosphere will be fantastic here – this will be a difficult night for City, and Guardiola can hardly afford to rest players either. City have been carrying injuries, and they have a Champions League Last 16 first leg away at Real Madrid coming up next week too. Newcastle have been playing good football this season without getting the results. Their average xG created of 1.59 is the joint-fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League alongside Chelsea, and their average xG conceded of 1.36 is a mid-table defensive figure – they should be sitting higher than 12th in the Premier League, there’s no doubt about that.
City come into the game as the favourites at 2.14 with Newcastle 3.5 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. Newcastle won 2-1 here when the sides met in November, but then lost 2-1 in Manchester City. You can see why City aren’t trading odds on – indeed, if anything the 2.14 feels a little short. I know there’s a huge gap between the sides in the table, but as I said, Newcastle are playing better than their results. City have an average xG created of 1.71 which is the third best attacking figure in the Premier League, while their average xG conceded of 1.16 is the second best, but I still feel the 2.14 is a little short. Wednesday night must have been a psychological blow, especially dropping points at home too. Eddie Howe’s side will be absolutely flying for this one, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an upset. However, I do feel the City lay is the best option here to have the draw on our side too. Another option has to be Over 2.5 goals, which has landed in the two meetings between the sides already this season. That’s trading 1.6 and while I couldn’t put anyone off that bet, I marginally prefer the City lay from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester City to beat Newcastle at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FANeMc
